Arkansas State vs. Washington College Football Betting Odds & Pick: Where Does the Value Lie in This Matchup?

Arkansas State vs. Washington College Football Betting Odds & Pick: Where Does the Value Lie in This Matchup? article feature image
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Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Tuli Letuligasenoa.

  • Washington looks to right its season as it hosts Arkansas State.
  • Offense has been optional for the Huskies, while the Red Wolves average nearly 600 yards a game.
  • Kyle Remillard breaks down the matchup and delivers his pick for bettors below.

Arkansas State vs. Washington Odds

Saturday, Sept. 18
4:15 p.m. ET
Pac-12 Network
Arkansas State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+17.5
-115
59
-105o / -115u
+600
Washington Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-17.5
-105
59
-105o / -115u
-900
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Washington Huskies have been lifeless through two games this season and fans are hoping they show a pulse against Arkansas State.

The Huskies offense has been non-existent through 120 minutes averaging just 8.5 points per game. They’ve averaged less than 1.9 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per pass attempt.

If there is any shimmer of hope for this offense, it’s that they should find success this week against one of the worst pass defenses in the country.

Arkansas State allowed 37.2 points per game in 2020 and has not shown any improvement allowing 38 points through two weeks this season.

The Red Wolves offense can put up big numbers like the 50 points they scored against Memphis last week.

We should see plenty of big plays in this matchup on Saturday which is something Washington desperately needs.


Arkansas State Red Wolves

Arkansas State led the Sun Belt in total offense last year, but it also had the worst defense by far. With Blake Anderson leaving and Butch Jones taking over, fixing that defense was the No. 1 priority.

Through two weeks we’ve learned that it will take much longer to improve this defense while replacing the pieces that Anderson took with him.


Red Wolves Offense

The Red Wolves offense has been fantastic averaging 45 points and nearly 600 yards of offense in their first two games.

They’ve been running a two-quarterback system between Layne Hatcher and Florida State transfer James Blackman. Both have been terrific combining for nine touchdown passes and over 900 passing yards through two games.

The running game has been efficient averaging 4.1 yards per carry, but this offense is built to expose defenses through the air. They pass the ball 59% of the time, but it has accounted for 76% of the total yards of offense.

Red Wolves Defense

There is no sugarcoating how bad the pass defense is for the Red Wolves. In 2020 the unit ranked 114th in Defensive Yards Per Play, 104th in Defensive Points Per Drive, and 107th in Defensive Touchdown Rate.

Through two games, the defense has taken another step backward with all the explosive plays they’ve allowed. In week 1 they allowed a 66-yard touchdown pass to Central Arkansas to open the season. Last week against Memphis they allowed five touchdowns of over 40-yards which contributed to 55 points for the Tigers.

Memphis’ true freshman quarterback torched this defense for five touchdowns and 417 yards passing averaging 12.6 yards per attempt. The Tigers running back Brandon Thomas had 70-yard and 75-yard touchdown runs.

Washington’s offense should wake up against a defense that allows 7.7 yards per play.

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Washington Huskies

After opening the season at the No. 20 team in the preseason AP poll, it has been a nightmare start for the Washington Huskies.

Losing 13-7 at home to Montana State was embarrassing for the program. But getting physically dominated by Michigan was more demoralizing.

Head Coach Jimmy Lake, who is in his second year, needs to rebound in a big way against Arkansas State.


Huskies Offense

The Washington offense has been nothing short of horrific through two games. Averaging just 8.5 points per game and 1.9 yards per carry is a recipe that won’t win many ball games.

Much of the blame has been appropriately going to offensive coordinator John Donovan who hasn’t put this offense in a position to succeed. Between both games the offense saw 19 straight drives that failed to come away with points.

Dylan Morris was efficient in the shortened 2020 season averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Through two games that number has dropped to 6.2 with three interceptions and just one touchdown pass. Don’t be surprised if you see five-star freshman quarterback Sam Huard get his opportunity to lead this Huskies sooner than later.

Washington returns its entire offensive line, a unit that ranked number one in Havoc and Sack Rates allowed. Through two games they’ve been a liability allowing four sacks and seven tackles for loss.

Donovan will want to expose this Arkansas defense and keep his foot on the pedal in an effort rejuvenate some life back into the Washington fans.


Huskies Defense

The Washington defense was physically outmatched by Michigan. The Wolverines ran all over the Huskies rushing for 343 yards while averaging 6.1 yards per carry.

Blake Corum rushed for 171 yards and three touchdowns on just 21 carries. His backup Hassan Haskins added another 155 yards and a touchdown.

Washington currently ranks fifth in Passing Success but that’s because they’ve only faced 38 passes on the season allowing 74.5 yards per game. The defense has been getting buried on the ground game that teams haven’t felt the need to pass against them.

We should see the defensive backs tested in this game against an air-raid attack of Arkansas State.


Arkansas State vs. Washington Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas State and Washington match up statistically:

Arkansas State Offense vs. Washington Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 97 65
Line Yards 78 83
Pass Success 67 5
Pass Blocking* 20 75
Big Play 50 54
Havoc 42 119
Finishing Drives 39 93
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Washington Offense vs. Arkansas State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 85 44
Line Yards 97 47
Pass Success 85 78
Pass Blocking* 108 48
Big Play 90 113
Havoc 91 55
Finishing Drives 118 87
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 121 94
PFF Coverage 74 47
Middle 8 53 76
SP+ Special Teams 32 121
Plays per Minute 24 33
Rush Rate 40.6% (120) 41.5% (119)

Data via College Football Data (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF & SportSource Analytics.


Arkansas State vs. Washington Betting Pick

It takes guts to play the over in a Washington Huskies game after how bad they’ve looked the first two weeks.

That speaks volumes to how bad Arkansas State’s defense is. The Red Wolves allowed true freshman Seth Henigan to throw for over 400 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 12.6 yards per attempt.

Butch Jones’ defense currently ranks 113th in the nation in big plays. They’ve allowed seven touchdowns of over 40-yards against Central Arkansas and Memphis.

Regardless of how bad John Donovan’s offense has looked thus far, they will be able to put up touchdowns against this defense.

Pick: Over 57.5 (Play to 58.5)

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