Inside some of the early line movement for Week 10 of the CFB season
For more on Week 10 of the 2017 college football season, check out Collin Wilson’s Sunday Morning Coffee column.
There has already been significant early action on a number of lines for Week 10 of the college football season. Sports Action examines some of the biggest moves.
Matchup to watch
Undefeated Miami might have the better record and higher national ranking, but bettors have been all over Virginia Tech since the Canes/Hokies line was released. VT opened +3.5, but the line was quickly adjusted through all the key numbers to VT -3.5. Vegas (Wynn/Stations) opened Virginia Tech -2.5, where the number has stabilized for now.
The drastic swing — which is even more eye-opening given that the game will be played in Coral Gables — can be attributed to multiple factors.
-Miami ranks 113th in third down conversion percentage, while VT ranks 10th in opponent third down conversion percentage.
-Virginia Tech’s defense is 24th in Rushing S&P+ and 11th in Passing S&P+. The Hokies have only allowed an average of 11.5 points per game, good for second nationally.
-Miami does hold a 7-0 record, but the Hurricanes were outgained in games against North Carolina and Florida State. Additionally, they trailed at halftime to Toledo, Georgia Tech, and Florida State (defeated the latter two on the last play of the game).
Other Week 10 notes
• There’s been nothing but early Texas Tech money as the Red Raiders prepare to face Kansas State. Texas Tech opened -1 and has moved to -4 against the Wildcats.
• Bettors have poured money in on Auburn; the Tigers moved to -15 offshore after opening at -10.5 against Texas A&M.
• There’s been more crazy Florida State line movement. The spread opened FSU -6.5 against a Syracuse team coming off of their bye week. Orange money drove the number to -2.5 before there was Seminole buy back. The line has stabilized at FSU -4.
• With both teams coming off of disappointing losses, the Michigan State +13 opener has taken plenty of money to settle at Penn State -7.5.
• Missouri opened +3 against Florida. However, the line moved as much as 6.5 points to the current Missouri -3.5 number after news that Florida and coach Jim McElwain parted ways.
Photo credit: © Lee Luther Jr. -USA TODAY Sports
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