Auburn vs. Florida Odds & Pick: Will Gators Pull the Upset at Home?
Kim Klement, USA Today Sports.
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Auburn at Florida Betting Picks & Odds
Spread: Auburn -3
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Gainesville, Fla.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Auburn-Florida Line Movement
The Auburn Tigers are an extremely popular favorite in what will almost certainly be the game with the biggest handle this Saturday.
On Sunday afternoon Circa Sports was the first to open the marquee SEC showdown for Week 6. The market-setters hung the game as a Pick ’em, but it wasn’t long before a deluge of Auburn money pushed the Tigers to -3.
The spread was static for a while, but has dipped to -2.5 at most shops, though there are still some operators hanging -3.
At the time of writing, No. 7 Auburn is attracting 77% of the tickets, so it’s safe to assume the public will be all over the road favorite in the swamp. Even with all the action coming in on the Tigers, this line has dipped at a bunch of shops, signaling that sharper money is likely coming in on Florida.
Collin Wilson: Can Bo Nix Handle the Havoc?
True freshman quarterback Bo Nix has led Auburn to a 5-0 record that includes impressive wins over Oregon, Texas A&M and Mississippi State. Nix started out as a reliable care-taker on offense, racking up multiple sub-200 yard passing games without a turnover.
That all changed against the Bulldogs, though, as Nix put up 335 yards, three touchdowns and threw just five incomplete passes.
Nix’s metamorphosis has masked some issues plaguing the offensive line. Mississippi State’s front seven generated a couple of sacks, six tackles for loss and one quarterback hurry.
The Auburn offensive line has allowed 31 tackles for loss while the skill positions have 12 total fumbles, one of the worst ranks in the nation. Auburn ranks 88th offensive in Havoc Allowed, a number that may come into play against Florida.
Florida has thrived despite an injury to starting quarterback Feleipe Franks. Kyle Trask had just two incompletions against Towson. Trask is 51-for-66 for 647 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions this season. The Gators started the season with a gaggle of new offensive linemen, but have managed to rank 53rd overall in Havoc allowed. This game will be determined on defense, where the Gators rank third in Havoc.
Florida sits inside the top-10 in passes defensed, top-5 in tackles for loss and sack rate and are the 25th-best team in the nation in line yards. This team should create turnover opportunities.
The Tigers have been fortunate to recover seven of their 12 fumbles, but turnover luck may change against a Gators defense that will live in the Tigers backfield.
Our Action Network projection makes this game a pick, and I will happily take the havoc minded home defense getting points.
Be sure to keep an eye around the market as this spread is 2.5 at some shops and 3 at others. As always, shop for the best number.
Pick: Florida +3 or better
Stuckey: Too Much Love for Auburn
This line is simply an overreaction in the market to what Auburn has done this season. The Tigers are undefeated straight-up and Against the Spread.
Just last week, the lookahead line was Florida -3 but now because Auburn dominated Mississippi State, the price has swung as much as six points. I’m not buying it.
Auburn has more impressive wins than anybody in the country but I think we may have all overrated Mississippi State (which lost at home to Kansas State) and Texas A&M (which just barely beat Arkansas in Arlington).
And to be honest, Auburn could’ve (should’ve?) easily lost to Oregon. And if the Tigers did drop that season opener and came into this game with a loss, we wouldn’t have had the hype to drive this line to where it is.
The Florida offensive line, which was the biggest question mark coming into the season, does worry me a bit against an excellent Auburn defensive line, led by Derrick Brown, Big Kat Bryant, Nick Coe and Marlon Davidson. The Gators struggled to even get a big push in the running game against Towson in the first half.
But I think Dan Mullen will scheme accordingly with a lot of misdirection and quick passes as an extension of the running game. Even without Kadarius Toney, Florida has one of the most talented groups of receivers in the country and Mullen knows how to use them.
Don’t sleep on tight end Kyle Pitts, who plays more like a receiver and will be playing on Sundays. This could be his national coming out party. Pitts and Trevon Grimes are both over 6-foot-5 while none of the Auburn top rotating DBs are over 5-foot-11. That height differential could play a major role on Saturday.
And I didn’t even get the chance to talk about wide receivers Josh Hammond and Van Jefferson.
That said, I think Florida wins this game on the other side of the ball with its excellent defense that will be fully healthy after getting a number of key contributors back this week. One of those players returning is star cornerback C.J. Henderson, one of the best in all of college football at the position. His ability on the outside allows the already ultra-aggressive Todd Grantham to call an even more aggressive game.
I expect Florida to bring exotic blitzes from all over throughout the game to force Nix into mistakes. This will be his biggest test by far for Nix, who’s just 8-for-35 for 117 yards when under pressure, per Sports Info Solutions.
That’s not a good sign ahead of playing a Todd Grantham defense.
I don’t expect either team to get much on the ground. They both have excellent defensive fronts that get to practice against rushing attacks that will look similar to what they see on the other side this week. So, it will come down to who can make more plays through the air. I’m betting against the true freshman and backing the vastly underrated Florida receivers.
Auburn is legit as it has proven this year. The Tigers are especially excellent in the trenches. But that doesn’t mean they should be a 3-point favorite here in Gainesville.
I played the Gators +3 and would take them at any ‘dog number. Turnover regression and havoc, as Collin mentioned, should also come into play.
The Pick: Florida +2.5