The BYU Cougars take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Arlington, Texas, on Saturday, Dec. 6. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas Tech is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. BYU, meanwhile, enters as a +12.5 underdog and is +410 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here’s my BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 6.
BYU vs Texas Tech Prediction
- BYU vs. Texas Tech Pick: BYU +13 or Better · 1H Under 24.5
My Texas Tech vs. BYU best bet is both on the Cougars to cover the spread and both teams to go under the first-half total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
BYU vs Texas Tech Odds
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -105 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | +410 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -115 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | -550 |
- BYU vs Texas Tech Spread: Texas Tech -12.5, BYU +12.5
- BYU vs Texas Tech Over/Under: 49.5 Points
- BYU vs Texas Tech Moneyline: BYU +410, Texas Tech -550
BYU vs Texas Tech College Football Betting Preview
BYU Cougars Betting Preview: Do or Die
With the noise swirling around about millionaire donors looking to keep Kalani Sitake in Provo, BYU must win a rematch with Texas Tech to become Big 12 champions.
The Cougars struggled after an early November bye week, losing 29-7 to Texas Tech in Lubbock.
The potent combination of running back LJ Martin and quarterback Bear Bachmeier was limited to just 47 rushing yards combined.
There's good news on the health front, though, as wide receiver Chase Roberts will be available for the championship after sitting out a Week 14 victory over UCF.
BYU's zone read concepts were fruitless against the Texas Tech defense, averaging just 2.8 yards per play on 26 carries. The Cougars converted just 3-of-14 third-down attempts, also handing over a massive field-position edge with Texas Tech securing 254 hidden yards.
Roberts scored the sole touchdown in the Week 11 game and is a crucial returning piece to the offense.
The Cougars' nickel defense stuffed 39% of rushing attempts from the Red Raiders, but a couple of explosive runs put Texas Tech in constant scoring position.
The Red Raiders reached the red zone seven times against BYU, converting two touchdowns and four field goals.
BYU has struggled to produce Havoc and a pass rush this season, but the Cougars did sack the Red Raiders five times with eight pressures.
Defensive coordinator Jay Hill's 2-4-5 defense has been successful with the blitz this season, as 33% of BYU's defensive snaps have utilized blitz with a 61% Success Rate.
Linebacker Jack Kelly leads the team in pressures and will be needed once again in the Big 12 Championship.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Preview: Pure Domination
Texas Tech has given up a grand total of 36 points over the past five games. One team on the schedule played within 22 points of the Red Raiders, a road loss at Arizona State in Week 8.
The box score may provide the template for shutting down the high-powered offense, as the Sun Devils won the turnover battle while keeping Tech's Success Rate in passing downs minimal.
On the other side of the ball, Arizona State connected on six different explosive passes to generate five trips to the red zone.
The game was an outlier to the Red Raiders' season. Texas Tech ranks top-25 defensively in creating a contested catch and owns the top overall coverage grade, per PFF.
The 2-4-5 defense flips between quarters and Cover 3, utilizing blitz on just 21% of snaps. There aren't many categories where Texas Tech isn't in the top five defensively, other than a rank of 90th in penalties.
Defensive interior A.J. Holmes Jr. will be paramount in the Big 12 Championship, producing a season-high three tackles against BYU's inside zone read concepts.
The Texas Tech running back combination of Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams dominated the BYU from an EPA perspective.
The Cougars stuffed a Texas Tech offense that's 96th in Line Yards, but a top-50 rank in explosives allowed Dickey and Williams to run for nearly 200 yards combined.
The Red Raiders use inside zone read with a 56% Success Rate out of 11 personnel. The usage of two tight ends and counter consumes the running game, but neither can generate methodical drives like the inside zone with one tight end.
BYU vs Texas Tech Pick, Betting Analysis
Will Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire see red-zone struggles against the Cougars for a second consecutive game?
With seven red-zone trips and four field goals in the Week 11 matchup, things didn't go well for a Texas Tech team that ranks 31st in Offensive Finishing Drives.
The BYU defense can be credited in this instance, ranking top-10 in both opponent red-zone scoring and red-zone touchdown rate.
Conversely, Texas Tech has boosted its red-zone touchdown rate to 89th nationally after turning 14 attempts into 12 touchdowns against UCF and West Virginia.
The defenses should take explosives away from each offense, leaving BYU with a small path to creating methodical drives.
Texas Tech's defensive line has dominated all forms of zone read run concepts, limiting nearly every quarterback on designed runs.
The Cougars' best chance may come through the arm of Bachmeier to Roberts, as the freshman quarterback owns a high 56% Success Rate with positive EPA against Cover 3.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for Texas Tech by a touchdown, giving value to BYU and the points.
If the Cougars can flex in the red zone, explosives may be the avenue for the Red Raiders to score touchdowns instead of field goals.
Scoring should start at a slower rate, with Texas Tech ranking second in first-half scoring defense and BYU sitting 26th.
Pick: BYU +13 or Better · 1H Under 24.5
BYU vs Texas Tech Betting Trends
