Wilson: My 9 Favorite College Football Betting Picks for Week 8

Oct 20, 2018 09:30 AM EDT
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USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mitchell Guadagni, Nico Evans and Tyler King

  • Collin Wilson gives his nine favorite betting picks for the college football slate in Week 8.
  • He's riding a bunch of ugly underdogs, including Rice and New Mexico, so this column is not for the faint of heart.

The CW9 took a few last-minute lumps with Vanderbilt, Washington and the Arkansas Under, but we rebound to a Week 8 slate full of opportunity to cash some winners.

Week 7 could have been labeled as Shakeup Saturday with so many Top 25 losses, but we have only four games in Week 8 that feature a head-to-head matchup of ranked teams.

Two rivalry games on Saturday feature one side that has dominated for years (Washington State over Oregon, Michigan State over Michigan), and we shouldn’t be lacking drama this weekend.

This column will leverage The Action Network power ratings and plenty of advanced stats from Football Outsiders.

Be sure to check out my Sunday Morning Coffee column for our Week 9 projected spreads. Let’s get to the picks!

YTD: 30-32-1


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College Football Betting Picks, Week 8

Air Force at UNLV

  • Spread: UNLV +10
  • Over/Under: 57
  • Time: Friday, 10 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS Sports

We start the CW9 on a Friday night from Las Vegas, backing the Runnin’ Rebels as a home underdog against Air Force. There could be a theme this week to some of these ugly dogs we are backing, and that is market value.

UNLV ended Sunday night at +14, which is higher than The Action Network power ratings number of +10. After digging deeply into the Utah State game, UNLV has balanced its offensive attack, led by quarterback Max Gilliam.

Replacing Armani Rogers, Gilliam went for 250 yards and three touchdowns through the air. If it were not for a Utah State blocked punt return for a touchdown, the Rebels would have covered.

Last week’s game against Utah State served as measuring stick of UNLV’s new power rating. While I have this game at UNLV +10, S&P+ has this at a pk.

Air Force certainly is not an offensive juggernaut, ranking 117th in S&P+. Defensively, the Falcons aren’t much better in passing explosiveness and sack rate. This is far too many points against a UNLV team that has rebounded from the loss of its star quarterback.

Play On: UNLV +10

Buffalo at Toledo

  • Spread: Toledo +1.5
  • Over/Under: 62
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN+

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