Wilson: 3 College Football Win Totals I Bet Immediately After Opening

Mar 12, 2019 11:10 PM EDT
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Herbert and Dan Mullen

  • March is usually a slow time of year for college football, until sportsbooks begin posting win totals for the following season.
  • Collin Wilson details three win totals he bet right away, including Florida and Oregon.

The world is preparing for the craziest few weeks on the gambling calendar in the form of March Madness. March is a time of college football hibernation, with only random news populating our timeline from spring practice.

That all changed this week as win totals popped up for a handful of teams. We have to wait a bit longer to fade UMass and jump on the Texas State money train (as our updated Action Network Power Ratings will recommend), but there are enough teams posted that we can officially start our gambling calendar for college football.

The 2019 schedule was finalized recently with dates added for the Sun Belt and MAC conference games. Our new set of power ratings can lead us to a cumulative single game win probability, allowing us to take a mathematical approach to win totals.

There were multiple teams I was happy to get money down on, including a Texas under. Without hesitation, we kick off our college football gambling season in early March with a few plays on win totals.

Florida

  • Projected Win Total: 8.86
  • The Bet: Under 9 wins (+110)

While our own power ratings predict a win total of 8.86, updated S&P+ for 2019 predicts a number just a shade over nine wins.

There is reason to be optimistic on the Gators as head coach Dan Mullen enters his second year. Florida returns plenty of starters, including quarterback Feleipe Franks.

The defense does lose sacks and tackles, especially on the defensive line, but it is the schedule that is calling for this under. Dates with Auburn, LSU and Georgia in SEC play and Miami and Florida State out of conference pose problems.

The South Carolina spot is tricky after coming off back-to-back brawls with Auburn and LSU. Mathematically, the Gators should finish with nine wins, but there is no room for error on this schedule. The Under +110 does not accurately reflect how often Florida would finish with eight wins rather than 10 if this schedule was played multiple times.

Oregon

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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