2021 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Week 6 Predictions with Projected Spreads

2021 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Week 6 Predictions with Projected Spreads article feature image

Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Cincinnati Bearcats wide receiver Tyler Scott (21).

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 6

Before you skip over my mostly witty, sometimes entertaining, opening five or six paragraphs to get to the bowl projections, I wanted to explain one thing before you go hit send on the Twitter machine.

Cincinnati. The big elephant — well, the big Bearcat — in the room.

Cincinnati Bearcats

I do not have Cincinnati projected in the College Football Playoff.

As impressive as UC’s wins against Indiana and Notre Dame have been, the Bearcats do not have many opportunities for quality, top-25 wins the rest of the way.

I don’t hate Cincinnati. I love Cincinnati. I own a “Cincy Committed to Kelly” red towel from 2009 — my best $5 investment ever — and I love, love, love Skyline Chili and Nippert Stadium.

My bowl projections are just that: projections. They are not how the bowls would be filled if the season ended today — but rather, in December.

I also am projecting how I believe the College Football Playoff selection committee will rank these schools at the end of the season. I don’t foresee Cincinnati getting in over any currently undefeated Power 5 school — nor any current 1-loss Power 5 school that finishes the season with fewer than two losses.

That’s basically because the Power 5 schools against whom Cincinnati will be compared will have played (a) a much tougher schedule, (b) more ranked opponents and (c) probably more teams that finish the season with a winning record.

BYU Cougars

BYU is basically in the same position as Cincinnati.

The Cougars could finish the season with seven victories vs. Power 5 opponents — if the Pac-12 is still considered a Power 5 conference in December.

Nonetheless, BYU also would likely lose in the committee’s head-to-head comparison against any undefeated or one-loss Power 5 opponents.

Here are this week's bowl projections. And, as always, each projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.

College Football Betting Power Ratings

Updated College Football Bowl Game Predictions

college football playoff-cfp-national championship

College Football Playoff National Championship

Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN

Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Georgia

Action Spread: Pick 'em

College Football Playoff Semifinals

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Capital One Orange Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL

Projection: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Penn State

Action Spread: Georgia -10

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Goodyear Cotton Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX

Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma

Action Spread: Alabama -12

New Year's Six Bowls

college football-sugar bowl

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Arkansas

Action Spread: Arkansas -3.5

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Rose Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA

Projection: Iowa vs. Oregon

Action Spread: Iowa -3

college football-fiesta bowl

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ

Projection: BYU vs. Cincinnati*

Action Spread: Cincinnati -9.5

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Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA

Projection: Michigan vs. NC State

Action Spread: Michigan -6

Other Bowls

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Texas Bowl

Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX

Projection: Texas Tech vs. LSU

Action Spread: LSU -5.5

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Vrbo Citrus Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Ohio State vs. Kentucky

Action Spread: Ohio State -10.5

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Outback Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: Michigan State vs. Mississippi State

Action Spread: Mississippi State -0.5

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Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ

Projection: Western Michigan vs. Air Force

Action Spread: Western Michigan -4.5

college football-gator bowl

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL

Projection: Clemson vs. Auburn

Action Spread: Auburn -5

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Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX

Projection: Virginia Tech vs. USC

Action Spread: USC -1.5

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TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN

Projection: Maryland vs. Ole Miss

Action Spread: Ole Miss -8

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Duke's Mayo Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC

Projection: North Carolina vs. Florida

Action Spread: Florida -3.5

college football-las vegas bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV

Projection: Wisconsin vs. Arizona State

Action Spread: Arizona State -4.5

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college football-alamo bowl

Valero Alamo Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX

Projection: Iowa State vs. Oregon State

Action Spread: Iowa State -6

college football-cheez it bowl

Cheez-It Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas

Action Spread: Texas -3

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New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY

Projection: Pitt vs. Rutgers

Action Spread: Pitt -11

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Fenway Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA

Projection: Boston College vs. Memphis

Action Spread: Boston College -9.5

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SDCCU Holiday Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA

Projection: Wake Forest vs. Stanford

Action Spread: Wake Forest -6

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Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ

Projection: Minnesota vs. Kansas State

Action Spread: Kansas State -1.5

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AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN

Projection: Baylor vs. Texas A&M

Action Spread: Texas A&M -5.5

college football-first responder bowl

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX

Projection: TCU vs. Utah

Action Spread: Pick 'em

college football-birmingham bowl-alabama

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL

Projection: Louisville vs. Tennessee

Action Spread: Tennessee -0.5

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Military Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD

Projection: Virginia vs. Houston

Action Spread: Virginia -5.5

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Quick Lane Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI

Projection: Indiana vs. Toledo

Action Spread: Toledo -0.5

college football-camellia bowl

Camellia Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL

Projection: Ball State vs. South Alabama

Action Spread: Ball State -2

college football-hawaii bowl

EasyPost Hawaii Bowl

Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI

Projection: Hawaii vs. SMU

Action Spread: SMU -13

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college football-gasparilla bowl

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: East Carolina vs. Appalachian State

Action Spread: Appalachian State -12

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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX

Projection: Nevada vs. Army

Action Spread: Nevada -5.5

college football-frisco bowl

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX

Projection: Rice vs. San Jose State

Action Spread: San Jose State -7.5

college football-famous idaho-potato bowl-boise

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID

Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State

Action Spread: Boise State -13

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Myrtle Beach Bowl

Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC

Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee

Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -22

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R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: UTSA vs. Louisiana

Action Spread: Louisiana -6

college football-la bowl-jimmy kimmel

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA

Projection: UCLA vs. San Diego State

Action Spread: UCLA -11

college football-independence bowl

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA

Projection: Kent State vs. UAB

Action Spread: UAB -11

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LendingTree Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL

Projection: Georgia Southern vs. Florida Atlantic

Action Spread: Florida Atlantic -7.5

college football-new mexico bowl

New Mexico Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM

Projection: Fresno State vs. UTEP

Action Spread: Fresno State -20

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RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL

Projection: UCF vs. Western Kentucky

Action Spread: UCF -11

college football-cure bowl-orlando

Cure Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Temple vs. Liberty

Action Spread: Liberty -22

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Bahamas Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas

Projection: Marshall vs. Northern Illinois

Action Spread: Marshall -14

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.

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