College Football Expert Picks: Our Staff’s 15 Favorite Bets for Week 4

Sep 22, 2018 8:50 AM EDT
  • Our college football experts give their 15 favorite picks for Week 4 of the 2018 season.
  • We have all types of bets covered with a healthy mix of underdogs, favorites and over/unders.

No weather concerns this weekend, as we have a full, uninterrupted schedule of college football on Saturday.

Let the games begin!

As we do every week, we asked several of our staffers to give us their favorite college football Saturday side or total for Week 4.

Regardless of your betting style or preferences, you should find something that catches your eye below or at least helps you make more informed betting decisions for Week 4.

Let’s lead off with five favorites, starting with an early afternoon ugly game on the surface that might hold some road chalk value. We will then finish up with five underdogs (and an ML underdog) and four totals.

*All odds for the picks pulled overnight from 5Dimes on Sept. 20


TALKING CHALK

Ken Barkley: Western Michigan -7.5 (at Georgia State)

2 p.m. ET on ESPN+

This will sound really weird, but here we go: Western Michigan needs this game. The Broncos were pretty soundly embarrassed by Eric Dungey and Syracuse at home on the opening Friday night of the season, and then went to Michigan, which was coming off the Notre Dame loss. That was ugly, too.

After going home to beat an FCS team, the Broncos are back on the road at lowly Georgia State, which has the dubious distinction of being ranked 100th or worse in offense, defense and special teams per the most recent S&P+ ratings. Hard to do.

Western Michigan wants to make a bowl game. Given that its talent keeps getting worse as P.J. Fleck’s time gets further away, this may be the game that does it for ‘em. The Broncos are probably being rated too low because of their poor results. With any effort, they should run away with this game.

Evan AbramsFlorida State -10 (vs. NIU)

3:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU

I feel like such a sucker laying double-digit points with Florida State after its performance through the first three weeks of the season. The Seminoles have led for just over four minutes in three total hours of play. However, I think bettors and oddsmakers have gotten a bit carried away here.

Northern Illinois has managed just 13 total points against Power 5 teams in two games this season (Iowa and Utah). The Seminoles have allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt on defense, tied for 90th in the FBS, but NIU’s offense averages just 3.5 — last out of 130 FBS teams.

Florida State might not be as good as its preseason expectations, but this team is due for a performance that lives up its skill set, and Deondre Francois is somewhere between the QB who had a 78.4 QBR in 2016 (16th in FBS) and his current 35.3 QBR (107th in FBS).

Not to mention, Florida State has faced six non-ACC teams at home off a loss since 2005, and its average spread has been 26.5. Lay the 10 with the Noles.

Sean Newsham: Oklahoma State -14 (vs. Texas Tech)

7 p.m. ET on FS1

Last week, Texas Tech beat Houston in a shootout that featured 112 total points and more than 1,300 combined yards. The Red Raiders won’t have as easy of a time this week against Oklahoma State, which actually has a pretty decent defense.

The Cowboys are hovering just outside the top 10 in a few projected defensive ranks, so they should do a better job of slowing down the Texas Tech offense. However, Texas Tech should continue to struggle defensively as it seems to do every year. This game is a sneaky blowout waiting to happen in Oklahoma State’s favor.

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Credit:

Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured:LSU Tigers head coach Ed Orgeron

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
BSU
UNM
62.5
+21.5
63
+19.5
PSU
RUTG
48.5
+26
50
+28
ARK
MSST
45.5
-18.5
46.5
-21
CIT
BAMA
60.5
-51
61.5
-51.5
OSU
MD
58
+17.5
58.5
+14
NW
MINN
51
+3.5
47.5
-1
IDHO
FLA
59
-39.5
60
-40
MTSU
UK
45
-13
46.5
-16
UTAH
COLO
48.5
+7
48
+7
USU
CSU
68
+26
68.5
+28
SYR
ND
62.5
-10
65.5
-10
BC
FSU
49.5
+1
49
+1.5
WVU
OKST
69.5
+5
73.5
+4.5
MASS
UGA
62
-44
66
-41
IND
MICH
53
-27.5
53.5
-28
ORST
WASH
57.5
-31
58
-33.5
DUKE
CLEM
58
-27
57.5
-28.5
RICE
LSU
51
-44
52
-41.5
KU
OKLA
68
-34.5
69
-36
CIN
UCF
59.5
-8
60
-7
ISU
TEX
51
-3
46.5
-2.5
ARIZ
WSU
60.5
-10
62.5
-9.5