There's sure to be a shake-up of teams in the third edition of the 2025 College Football Playoff rankings.
Top-10 teams Alabama and Texas lost to Oklahoma and Georgia, respectively. Those events are sure to catapult the Sooners into the top 10 and give them a firm grasp on slipping into the 12-team field.
As for Texas, the debate has already started on whether a 3-loss team with a potential win over Texas A&M is enough to make the field.
The new playoff format releases the top four seeds from conference championship games. With the crumble of the ACC, there is an outside possibility that a Group of Five conference champion could leap a power conference squad for a playoff spot.
There's also a possibility that the SEC will get a minimum of 5 teams in, consuming nearly half of the playoff spots. The question remains if it's more advantageous to miss a conference championship game than risk the chance of losing a day before the committee’s final decision.
Seeds 5-8 will be highly coveted by power conference teams to host a home game after missing a conference championship game.
Our futures piece will take a look inside our Power 4 conferences each week, featuring noteworthy wagers that could be ripe for investment before the committee rankings.
With that said, let's dive into our college football futures and NCAAF picks ahead of the Week 13 College Football Playoff rankings release.
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ACC
Conference Contenders: Georgia Tech (6-1), Virginia (6-1), Pittsburgh (5-1), SMU (5-1), Duke (4-2), Miami (4-2)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Duke (87th), Virginia (64th), SMU (62nd), Pitt (20th), Georgia Tech (17th)
Bet to Make Now: Virginia to Win ACC (+240)
The path forward is clear for many of the top contending teams: win and make an ACC Championship appearance in Charlotte.
Georgia Tech sits in the current market as less than a field-goal favorite at home against Pitt in Week 13. If the Yellow Jackets win this game, a spot in Charlotte is guaranteed, no matter what happens in their rivalry with Georgia next week.
Virginia can also lock up a spot in the conference title game with a Week 14 victory in a rivalry game against Virginia Tech, where the Hoos will be double-digit favorites.
Pitt can also play its way into the ACC Championship game, first with a victory over Georgia Tech and then Miami. The Hurricanes need a number of chaotic events to happen to appear in the ACC Championship, a probability far beyond the +850 number to win the conference.
The value in the conference currently resides on Virginia.
The Cavaliers will be heavy favorites over Virginia Tech and then would project as four-point underdogs in a potential ACC Championship against Georgia Tech.
The odds of winning both of those games are less than +200, giving the current number value on the Cavaliers.
Big Ten
Conference Contenders: Indiana (8-0), Ohio State (7-0), USC (6-1), Oregon (6-1), Michigan (6-1)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Ohio State (18th), Indiana (11th), USC (10th), Michigan (8th), Oregon (7th)
Bet to Make Now: Oregon to Win National Championship (+1500)
Indiana was the suggestion to win the Big Ten last week at +140, as DraftKings now lists the Hoosiers at +150 for the conference. Head coach Curt Cignetti will enjoy the Week 13 bye before ending the conference schedule as a heavy road favorite against Purdue.
The biggest question is whether Indiana would list at +150 in a potential championship game against Ohio State. Action Network projects the Buckeyes as 3.5-point favorites in Indianapolis, giving Indiana fair value in the futures market.
USC, Oregon and Michigan all need a loss from Ohio State. The Buckeyes are unlikely to lose as 31-point favorites against Rutgers and project as minimum 10-point favorites against the Wolverines in Week 14.
Michigan, meanwhile, is not guaranteed a spot in the Big Ten Championship game if it beats Ohio State. There's only one guarantee from this conference: that Oregon will make the College Football Playoff.
The Ducks are 9.5-point favorites over USC and project as touchdown favorites over Washington in Week 14. Those numbers correlate to -125 odds for Oregon to sweep the remaining two games and guarantee a playoff spot.
Head coach Dan Lanning would receive two weeks of preparation before a home game in the playoff. Oregon has value in the national title picture at 15-1 or better.
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Big 12
Conference Contenders: Texas Tech (7-1), BYU (6-1), Cincinnati (5-2), Houston (5-2), Utah (5-2), Arizona State (5-2), Houston (5-2)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Arizona State (58th), Houston (57th), Utah (45th), Texas Tech (42nd), BYU (28th), Cincinnati (25th)
Bet to Make Now: Texas Tech to Win Big 12 CFP (-300)
There are no expectations that any team outside of the Big 12 champion will make the College Football Playoff.
Texas Tech will finish the conference slate as a heavy favorite against West Virginia, while BYU will have a coin-flip game against Cincinnati before hosting UCF as a heavy favorite.
Utah, Houston and Arizona State need plenty of chaos to compete for the conference championship.
The best bet on the board requires swallowing a ton of juice, as Texas Tech’s toughest Big 12 Championship game would be against BYU. That number projects the Red Raiders as 9-point favorites against BYU, the closest team in Action Network's Betting Power Ratings.
A true moneyline on that game comes to -375, giving the current -300 number value on the Red Raiders to win the Big 12.
SEC
Conference Contenders: Texas A&M (7-0), Georgia (7-1), Alabama (6-1), Ole Miss (6-1)
Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule: Ole Miss (51st), Georgia (29th), Alabama (24th), Texas A&M (21st), Texas (4th)
Bet to Make Now: Ole Miss to Win National Championship (+2200)
Ole Miss was the recommendation last week at 18-1 and continues to hold value at 22-1.
The Rebels have the toughest scenario to make the SEC Championship game, all but guaranteeing a home game in Oxford during the College Football Playoff.
Head coach Lane Kiffin’s offense has been fantastic in home games this season, giving Ole Miss plenty of value in the national title picture.
A three-way tie in the conference standings between Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss will require a tiebreaker of opponent winning percentage. That number cannot be calculated with two weeks of play remaining.
All teams in the hunt for the SEC Championship are on track for the College Football Playoff, but Ole Miss continues to hold a better value over Alabama (+1500), Georgia (+1000) and Texas A&M (+750) — each of whom could lose the SEC title game.
