Saturday College Football Odds & Best Bets: Our Staff’s Top 8 Betting Picks for Week 10 (Nov. 7)
Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Young Jr. (8).
- Happy college football Saturday! With a day full of college football, it's helpful to know where to start when looking to place bets.
- Our college football staff helps with that, sharing their top 8 picks throughout the day.
- Read on for our staff's complete betting breakdown including odds, picks and predictions for each of our favorite Saturday college football games in Week 10.
Ah, Week 10.
We officially have Pac-12 in the morning, Pac-12 after dark, two top-10 matchups in the ACC and SEC, and much, much more.
Our staff has broken down the odds and highlighted their favorite betting positions for the Week 10 Saturday college football slate. From noon to the evening, we’ve got you covered with our top bets across the entire slate of college football action on Saturday.
Saturday College Football Best Bets for Week 10:
Check our top Saturday picks below, each of which comes from one of the following seven games. Click any of the afternoon games below to navigate to a specific matchup.
- 12:00 p.m. ET | Nebraska vs. Northwestern Under
- 12:00 p.m. ET | Nebraska vs. Northwestern Over
- 12:00 p.m. ET | Arizona State vs. USC
- 12:00 p.m. ET | SMU vs. Temple
- 12:00 p.m. ET | Louisiana-Monroe vs. Georgia State
- 3:30 p.m. ET | Cincinnati vs. Houston
- 7:00 p.m. ET | UCLA vs. Colorado
- 7:30 p.m. ET | Stanford vs. Oregon
All odds are from DraftKings and have been updated as of Friday evening.
Nebraska vs. Northwestern Under 54.5
|Nebraska Odds||+3.5 [BET NOW]|
|Northwestern Odds||-3.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+135/-167 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||53 [BET NOW]|
|Time||12 p.m. ET|
|TV||Big Ten Network|
Last season in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers and Wildcats competed for the crown of the ugliest Big Ten game of the year. Despite a virtually turnover-free 60 minutes, the two teams combined for just 23 total points. Since then, Northwestern’s defense has gotten healthy and is perhaps the second-best unit in the Big Ten behind Ohio State. Nebraska, meanwhile, has yet to take a meaningful step forward offensively.
My projections for this game call for the Cornhuskers and Wildcats to play this one in the mid-40s, which is why I have this total circled. Nebraska has exceeded 28 points just once in its last nine games, and Northwestern put the clamps on a Maryland offense that has since proven to be dynamic. Toss in the Wildcats’ second-half shutout of Iowa last week, and it’s hard to envision Nebraska exceeding 24 points in this one.
The wildcard in this game is the Northwestern offense that is still very much a work in progress against a seemingly average Nebraska defense. Northwestern’s offense checks in at 103rd nationally, while Nebraska’s defense is slotted 72nd, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Through two games, Northwestern has also stayed true to form in terms of explosiveness — that is to say, it’s not explosive at all. Just two plays from scrimmage have gone for 30 yards or more for NW, and that gives me confidence that this will be a four-quarter grind between the Huskers and Cats.
Nebraska vs. Northwestern Over 54.5
Northwestern has gotten off to a hot start, going 2-0 in its first two games.
The Wildcats have an offensive PPA per play of 0.40. Quarterback Peyton Ramsey is completing 70% of his passes. Through two games, the Wildcats have six different players that have rushed for a touchdown. Inside the 40-yard line, the Wildcats are averaging 5.41 points per opportunity, reflecting their strong run game. Additionally, Northwestern has a Passing Success Rate of 50%. Defensively, The Wildcats are allowing 2.55 points per attempt inside the 40-yard line.
Nebraska is looking to bounce back after a tough opening week loss against Ohio State. It kept it close in the first half, scoring twice on the ground, but the Buckeyes inevitably pulled away. The Cornhuskers will look to get the passing game going against the Wildcats this weekend. Nebraska has an offensive PPA per play of 0.40. It’s averaging 2.83 points per opportunity inside the 40-yard line and holds a Passing Success Rate of 47%. The Cornhuskers allowed over six points per opportunity inside the 40 against Ohio State.
Northwestern is going to look to throw the ball against an exploitable Nebraska secondary as it continues with its run game. As long as the Wildcats get into a position to score, they shouldn’t have an issue putting points on the board.
Nebraska will leverage its running game to open things up through the air for quarterback Adrian Martinez. The Huskers will have more success finding the end zone against the Wildcats than they did against the Buckeyes. Because that’s a big surprise.
My model has the total for this game at 65. I would highly recommend taking the over.
Arizona State +11 vs. USC
by Pat McMahon
|Arizona State Odds||+10.5 [BET NOW]|
|USC Odds||-10.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+300/-400 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||55.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||12 p.m. ET|
College football fans are being treated to a great Pac-12 opening week matchup between Arizona State and USC with a rare 9 a.m. local kickoff time in Los Angeles. This game will feature the league’s two best quarterbacks in USC’s Kedon Slovis and Arizona State’s Jayden Daniels.
The Trojans are the favorites to win the Pac-12 South, thanks to an explosive offense and experienced roster, as well as a favorable schedule. USC returns 16 total starters, and coming back alongside Slovis are stud receivers Tyler Vaughns and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Pair the explosive offense with a defense that brings back eight starters, and it’s no surprise the Trojans are receiving plenty of love to win the conference.
Unfortunately for USC, its toughest test of the season arguably comes in the opener against the Sun Devils. The Arizona State offense doesn’t have the same preseason hype as the Trojans due to the departures of running back Eno Benjamin and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk to the NFL. However, the drop-off in offensive production for the Sun Devils won’t be as big as people think.
Despite his top targets going pro, I think Daniels will have an even better sophomore season. Arizona State’s offensive line returns just two starters but brings in two Power Five grad transfers, so the group does have experience and depth, which should make it strong. Aiyuk is the offense’s biggest loss, but Frank Darby is also a stud on the outside and should blossom into a star in his senior campaign. This was a deep receiving corps last season, and there are several talented sophomores who will step into bigger roles this year and become quality options for Daniels.
I’m not questioning USC’s talent, especially on offense, but I don’t think Arizona State is as far behind the Trojans as the betting markets indicate.
Daniels is a special player who will only look better in his second year playing for the Sun Devils’ great coaching staff, and their losses on offense are being overblown. While the USC defense is very experienced, it did lose one of it best players in defensive tackle Jay Tufele, a first-team all-conference selection last year, who opted out of this season. Daniels will be tough to slow down, and I think we’ll see a back-and-forth affair with both offenses getting on the scoreboard early. I’ll gladly take the Sun Devils getting double digits, and I think sprinkling the ASU moneyline at +300 or better is worth a look as well.
SMU Team Total Over 40 vs. Temple
|SMU Odds||-17.5 [BET NOW]|
|Temple Odds||+17.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-835/+500 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||62 [BET NOW]|
|Time||12 p.m. ET|
The last time the SMU Mustangs played an up-tempo team of Temple’s caliber, they put up 65 at North Texas. It’s tough not to see a similar result tomorrow in South Philly, where weather will not be an issue (70 degrees, light wind) and the home team gives up a generous 8.6 yards per pass attempt. These Mustangs like to throw it early, throw it often (37.8 pass attempts per game) and throw it efficiently (9.4 yards per pass attempt).
This is an SMU side that can also spread teams out and gain chunks of yards on the ground (181.7 rush yards per game). Temple, which allows 213.5 yards on the ground per game, is going to have a tough time getting stops.
I tried to look for signs against SMU scoring but couldn’t really come up with many. The Mustangs play Tulsa next week, so that’s not what one would call a look-ahead spot. Note, however, that SMU is without star receiver Reggie Roberson, Jr. (22 receptions, 474 yards, five touchdowns in just four games), but quarterback Shane Buechele has performed admirably in the past without his go-to guy, including a 457-yard, six-touchdown performance against these same Owls last year.
I’d take the SMU team total and would buy it up to 42.
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Georgia State Under 59.5
by Matt Wispe
|Louisiana-Monroe Odds||+18 [BET NOW]|
|Georgia State Odds||-18 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+575/-910 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||58.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||12 p.m. ET|
Louisiana-Monroe has been one of the best under teams in the country through seven games, and it’s largely due to its complete ineffectiveness on offense. It ranks as the 12th-worst offense, according to SP+. It leans slightly on the passing game for 52.5% of its plays but only owns a 38.4% Success Rate on passing plays. And its run game is even worse at just 31.1%. Louisiana-Monroe averages 4.7 yards per play and only 13.4 points per game.
Georgia State has been better at surpassing overs, but its offense also looks like a strong under play. Not only do the Panthers run just 60.8 plays per game, but they run the ball on 76.15% of those plays. Their Success Rate comes in at only 39.9%. They’re slightly better as a running team with a 40.5% Success Rate and are only stuffed 19.5% of the time, but in this game, that will only help keep the clock moving. Defensively, Georgia State has been a respectable run defense, posting a 33.6 Rushing Success Rate and stuffing 29.6% of plays.
ULM is 6-0-1 on unders this season, and a matchup against a run-heavy team is likely to continue the streak. I would play this down to 57 and expect that the majority of scoring will come from Georgia State.
Cincinnati -13.5 vs. Houston
|Cincinnati Odds||-12.5 [BET NOW]|
|Houston Odds||+12.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-560/+370 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||53 [BET NOW]|
|Time||3:30 p.m. ET|
Cincinnati has outscored two of the better teams in the AAC, 91-23, in the past two weeks and has covered the spread by more than 30 points in each game.
As has come to be expected from Luke Fickell’s Bearcats, the strength of this team is its defense. Cincinnati ranks third in the country in Defensive Success Rate, behind only Wisconsin and Oklahoma State. SP+ ranks this unit No. 5 in the FBS, and it has backed that up despite playing some of the better offenses in the country. The Bearcats held an SMU team that ranks eighth in total offense to just 13 points and followed that up by containing the 12th-ranked Memphis offense to just 10 points.
Next up is another team that relies on its offense in Houston, but it sits 28th in total offense and shouldn’t be expected to fare much better than the two teams Cincinnati just locked down.
Cincinnati is seventh in the country at creating Havoc on defense, and Houston ranks 56th in allowing Havoc on offense. It could be a long day for Houston quarterback Clayton Tune, who can be turnover-prone with four interceptions and two fumbles in four games this year and 26 turnovers in 16 career games.
While this defense steers the ship for the Bearcats, the offense has really hit its stride in the last couple of weeks as well, led by the arm and legs of quarterback Desmond Ridder. Ridder torched SMU on the ground, rushing for 179 yards and three touchdowns on just eight carries. Against Memphis, it was more his arm that led the way, as he went 21-of-26 for 271 yards and three touchdowns. Although, he also added two touchdowns on the ground.
When Luke Fickell turned down the Michigan State job this offseason, he said he knew this was the most talented Cincinnati team he’s ever had. Well, the Bearcats have proved him right and now find themselves ranked No. 6 and reaching the point of receiving College Football Playoff buzz. Whatever slim chance a Group of Five might have to ever make the playoffs, they are going to have to blow the doors off of just about every team they play. I would take the Bearcats up to -17 here.
UCLA vs. Colorado Over 55.5
|UCLA Odds||-6 [BET NOW]|
|Colorado Odds||+6 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-200/+165 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||57 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
This matchup features two things that always point to an over: a fast pace and two terrible defenses.
In 2019, both UCLA and Colorado ranked in the bottom-four in Passing Success Rate Allowed. Additionally, neither team ranks in the top half of the country in returning production on defense. In terms of pace, UCLA ranked fifth in plays per game a season ago. Colorado has a new offensive coordinator in Joey Lynch, and he has stated he wants to play with a high tempo.
UCLA was actually an efficient offense last season in terms of moving the chains but was horrendous in the turnover department. The Bruins ranked 44th in Success Rate and 35th in First Down Rate but also ranked 102nd in Turnover Rate. The defense, however, ranked 116th in Success Rate Allowed, 103rd in Explosive Drive Rate, and 123rd in Finishing Drives. It also lost cornerback Darnay Holmes, who was easily the best player on the defense a season ago.
On the other side, the Colorado defense ranked 120th in Success Rate and 111th in Touchdown Rate. The offense ranked 44th in Success Rate, 19th in First Down Rate, and 10th in Havoc allowed but admittedly will need to replace a lot of production. Colorado will be starting senior quarterback Sam Noyer after he backed up Steven Montez early in his career.
When factoring in a slightly increased pace for Colorado, I project this game to be in the 60s. Even with Colorado breaking in a new quarterback, I have a hard time finding a path to an under in this game.
Oregon -8 vs. Stanford
|Oregon Odds||-9 [BET NOW]|
|Stanford Odds||+9 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||50.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The main issues for Stanford offensively last season were in its running game. It ranked 105th in Rushing Success and gained only 3.7 yards per carry on the ground. Those issues likely won’t be fixed heading into 2020 as they have yet to find a capable running back. To make matters worse, two of its starters on the offensive line transferred in the offseason.
Davis Mills is a capable quarterback who was fine in his replacement of KJ Costello halfway through the season. He will have his entire receiving corps back in 2020, but it’ll be facing one of the best pass defenses in the country from last year. The Ducks ranked 10th in Defensive Passing Success but will have to replace three starters in the secondary. However, the Ducks bring back almost every starter in their front seven, so Stanford could become one-dimensional on Saturday night.
Losing Justin Herbert is going to be tough for the Ducks, but they do have a capable replacement in Tyler Shough, who was Herbert’s backup last season. They also have Boston College transfer Anthony Brown, who came in during the offseason. Head coach Mario Cristobal has been coy about who will start on Saturday night, but it honestly won’t make a difference either way. The Ducks bring back impactful players from almost every skill position, including their trio of running backs who combined for over 2,200 yards and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. They should have no trouble moving the ball against a Stanford defense that lost all of its main contributors from last season. The Cardinal’s top three tacklers at the linebacker position are gone, as is their best corner in Paulson Adebo, who opted out of the season, leaving Stanford thin at almost every position.