Georgia Southern vs Texas State Picks, Odds | NCAAF Betting Guide
Photo by Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Davis Brin (Georgia Southern)
Georgia Southern vs Texas State Odds
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 69.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 69.5 -105o / -115u | -145 |
Georgia Southern travels to San Marcos to take on a revitalized Texas State program in a game with one of the highest totals on the board at 69.5. The Eagles are short favorites in a matchup in which both teams have high-tempo offenses, veteran transfer quarterbacks and well-stocked skill position player rooms.
With this much offensive talent, our pick and prediction for the game has to involve the total going over, right? While there are some ways for the number to fall short, a game like this is begging for you to throw some couch-cushion money on the over, and kick back and root like hell for the pending fireworks.
Let’s break down what makes these good offenses tick.
Last season, the Eagles' moribund program hired a new coaching staff with a flashy offensive scheme, brought in a transfer quarterback and overhauled their style of play. They also made a surprising run to bowl eligibility.
They have continued that formula this year; new quarterback Davis Brin has elevated their offense to 47th in SP+. Brin operates Bryan Ellis’ RPO-heavy scheme, and while he's been interception prone, his sharp reads and quick release fit what the offense wants to do.
His receiving room is deep, led by Khaleb Hood, the best pass-catcher in school history. Hood has 66 receptions and 681 yards, which is indicative of their style of play. Ranking 24th in Passing Success Rate but 132nd in passing explosives, this is a “death by a thousand paper cuts” passing offense.
The “R” in RPO is driven by tandem backs Jalen White and OJ Arnold, who have combined for 921 yards on the season. Although Georgia Southern is 129th in rushing play rate, it's good at it — top-30 in both Success Rate and Explosiveness on the ground.
The only struggle for the Eagles' offense has been converting in the red zone. In Parker Fleming’s ECKEL metric, the Eagles are eighth in ECKEL rate (creating scoring chances), but only 98th in points, per ECKEL.
Despite last year’s quick fix on offense, the defense is still a long rebuild. The Eagles' stop unit is 114th in SP+ and is susceptible to both the pass (100th in EPA/pass) and the rush (70th).
They're fourth in the country in Havoc creation; coordinator Brandon Bailey preaches havoc, and Buffalo finished first in the nation in that metric last year when Bailey was there.
The Bobcats are following the blueprint Georgia Southern built last year. New head coach GJ Kinne arrived in San Marcos with his up-tempo extreme spread offense, and he brought Auburn transfer quarterback TJ Finley to run it.
Finley pilots a brutally efficient offense, ranking 10th in Success Rate and with favorable splits both running (10th) and passing (13th). His favorite weapons are a pair of mighty mite slot receivers; Joey Hobert and Ashtyn Hawkins are under six-feet tall but have combined for over 1,000 yards on the season.
Running back Ismail Mahdi has been a revelation. The Houston Christian transfer has rushed for 854 yards on the season at 7.2 yards per carry. He leads FBS in all-purpose yardage thanks to his work in the receiving game and as a kick returner.
The Texas State offense thrives in the ECKEL accounting; it's 24th in ECKEL rate and 25th in points per ECKEL.
But again, defense is a question mark. The Bobcats are 96th in EPA margin on defense and have particularly struggled against the pass, where they rank 84th against Success Rate and 111th defending explosives.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Southern and Texas State match up statistically:
Georgia Southern Offense vs. Texas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 26 | 40 | |
| Line Yards | 25 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 24 | 87 | |
| Havoc | 24 | 18 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 38 | |
| Quality Drives | 12 | 92 |
Texas State Offense vs. Georgia Southern Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 62 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 76 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 16 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 102 | |
| Quality Drives | 33 | 40 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 22 | 110 |
| PFF Coverage | 53 | 67 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 63 | 37 |
| Middle 8 | 12 | 78 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.8 (28) | 23.4 (12) |
| Rush Rate | 39.4% (129) | 54.0% (53) |
Georgia Southern vs Texas State
Betting Pick & Prediction
The over is never a guarantee. There's certainly a script for an under. A few Georgia Southern drives fizzle out. Maybe Brin’s interception habit rears its ugly head in the red zone. An Eagles Havoc play means sacks in the red zone that turn touchdown drives into field goals, etc.
But as a fan, this is an over play all the way.
Both teams push the pace and rely on winning shootouts as a formula. Both teams have veteran quarterbacks and have accumulated talented skill-position players around them. Both teams play an incredibly entertaining style of football.
This game is on during a loaded mid-afternoon slot. Get this game on a secondary television with your streaming apps, throw some pocket change on the over and enjoy the show.
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