Miami vs NC State Odds & Picks | NCAAF Betting Guide

I don't know how to explain it, but finishing off the ACC schedule this week with Miami vs. NC State just feels extremely tasteful somehow. It fits for some reason — probably the same reason a martini fits James Bond. It just feels right that these two teams are meeting at night in Raleigh.

This should be a really entertaining matchup as well.

Both teams are 3-2 in their last five coming into this game. Each of these teams had all but one matchup in those five end up as one-score games. Both teams have beaten Clemson in the last two weeks, Miami two weeks ago and NC State last week.

I would be hard-pressed to find two teams in more similar situations this week. All that to say — this should be a great one.

The story of this game will be whether or not Tyler Van Dyke can bounce back after a horrid game against Virginia in which he threw no touchdowns and two interceptions with only 163 yards.

The poor performance was to be somewhat expected as he recovered from a lower-body injury that kept him out of the Clemson win. But on a night when he was pressured zero times? He will need to bounce back in a big way if Miami is to win this one.

However, Van Dyke's body of work this season has me convinced this is just a small hiccup in his first game back when he may not have been 100%.

He had this Hurricanes offense humming earlier in the year, and they still look above average. They rank 29th in Offensive Success Rate, 44th in explosiveness, 41st in Points per Opportunity and 57th in Havoc Allowed.

They particularly excel through the air, ranking 17th in Passing Success Rate. This is backed up by Van Dyke's 90 overall PFF grade, which ranks ninth among quarterbacks.

Look for the Hurricanes to air the ball out in Raleigh and try to get Van Dyke back on track.

While Van Dyke has been a success story for the Hurricanes this season, the quarterbacks have struggled mightily for the Wolfpack.

Virginia transfer Brennan Armstrong has a PFF grade of 65, while MJ Morris has completed just 56.5% of his passes for 596 yards in three games. The offense has not been successful when attempting to move the ball through the air, ranking 103rd in Passing Success Rate and 80th in passing explosiveness.

What makes this even worse is that Miami's defense excels at stopping the pass, ranking 25th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, so the Wolfpack may have a tough time passing the ball this week.

Things are marginally better on the ground but not by much. NC State comes in at 61st in Rushing Success Rate but 124 in rushing explosiveness. Not only that, but they don't show a lot of urgency when they do have the ball, ranking 85th in seconds per play.

Unfortunately for the Pack, I see NC State having trouble moving the ball on Saturday. I'm anticipating a slow, somewhat plodding offensive performance.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and NC State match up statistically:

Miami Offense vs. NC State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	45	25
Line Yards	9	13
Pass Success	17	23
Havoc	19	41
Finishing Drives	41	74
Quality Drives	17	33

NC State Offense vs. Miami Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	61	27
Line Yards	41	9
Pass Success	103	40
Havoc	84	20
Finishing Drives	57	90
Quality Drives	104	49

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	3	8
PFF Coverage	54	105
Special Teams SP+	1	6
Middle 8	23	49
Seconds per Play	28.6 (98)	27.9 (85)
Rush Rate	51.3% (79)	52.3% (73)

We have this game at Miami -3, assuming Van Dyke is fully healthy. The spread sits at -5.5 as of writing, which is just a bit too rich for me with uncertainty around the Miami signal-caller's health.

However, what I do know is that NC State's offense has been wildly underwhelming this season. I'll take the Wolfpack team total under.

Pick: NC State Team Total Under 19.5