Penn State vs Maryland Picks, Odds: Betting Value on Terrapins

The Nittany Lions look to keep their Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff hopes alive when they travel to Annapolis to take on Maryland.

Let's preview Penn State-Maryland on FOX Saturday afternoon with our Penn State vs Maryland pick and the latest odds today.

Penn State did not look impressive last Saturday at home, needing a late touchdown to put away a bad Indiana team. This is coming off an incredibly poor offensive performance against Ohio State where the Nittany Lions managed only one offensive touchdown that came in garbage time. They are in a lookahead spot as well facing Michigan at home next week.

Maryland started the season 5-0 but has since gone on a three-game skid after losing to Ohio State, Illinois and Northwestern. Maryland has a bad history against Penn State, as the Nittany Lions have won seven of the last eight meetings, including a 30-0 beatdown last season.

Penn State was incredibly sloppy and quite frankly, looked hungover against Indiana at home on Saturday. What that game highlighted is that the Nittany Lions really aren't an elite team with Drew Allar at quarterback.

Penn State is great offensively when playing with a lead and Allar doesn't have to make any throws downfield. More than 70% of Allar's pass attempts this season are less than 10 yards and he's only averaging 6.4 yards per attempt.

This team is literally dead last in the country in passing explosiveness, so even though Maryland has a very average secondary, Allar and the Penn State passing attack don't scare me.

Even the rushing attack hasn't been that effective. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are both averaging less than 4.7 yards per carry, but the Nittany Lions are a top-40 team in rushing success rate and EPA/Rush.

However, they are not explosive whatsoever on the ground (117th in rushing explosiveness) and Maryland is top 10 at preventing explosive rushes. So, it's going to have to be a lot of three- to four-yard carries and trying to control the clock.

The Penn State defense has put up incredible numbers this season, especially against the pass. The Nittany Lions are No. 1 in almost every pass defense category, but let's be honest, they haven't faced many good quarterbacks. Kyle McCord and Garrett Greene are the only two quarterbacks they've faced who have a positive EPA on the season.

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Taulia Tagovailoa has struggled the last three games, but he has been solid this season overall. He's top 40 in the country in Positive EPA play percentage and is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt, plus he has Maryland 37th in passing success rate.

Tagovailoa is someone who throughout his career has played much better at home than on the road and this year is no different.

Data via Sports Info Solutions.

Maryland has been effective at running the ball because of its ability to break off big plays.

The Terrapins are 23rd in EPA/Rush and ninth in rushing explosiveness behind Roman Hemby, who is averaging almost four yards per carry after contact and has a PFF rushing grade of 80.0.

The Terrapins defense is what has let them down these past three games. In the three losses, they have given up a total of 94 points — but they have only allowed opponents to average 5.3 yards per play, which is not very far off from their season average of 5.0.

The defense has struggled up front to stop the run, ranking 80th in both rushing success rate allowed and defensive line yards. However, like I mentioned above, the Terrapins are doing a good job of limiting explosive plays on the ground.

The reason for that is because teams are not breaking tackles against them, as Maryland has the fourth-best tackling grade in the country, per PFF.

The biggest thing in this game is going to be finishing drives. Because Penn State has played a weak schedule, its numbers are inflated being No. 1 in finishing drives on offense. Meanwhile, Maryland sits 31st in finishing drives allowed.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and Maryland match up statistically:

Penn State Offense vs Maryland Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	22	80
Line Yards	30	80
Pass Success	62	55
Havoc	3	85
Finishing Drives	1	31
Quality Drives	25	48

Maryland Offense vs Penn State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	66	7
Line Yards	40	4
Pass Success	37	2
Havoc	15	4
Finishing Drives	36	2
Quality Drives	24	3

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	75	4
PFF Coverage	13	30
Special Teams SP+	51	70
Middle 8	13	30
Seconds per Play	26.6 (61)	25.2 (37)
Rush Rate	55.7% (39)	44.5% (119)

This is a massive lookahead spot for the Nittany Lions who have a date with third-ranked Michigan next weekend at home in what will amount to their last shot at the College Football Playoff.

Allar is not the type of quarterback who is going to light up an opponent's defense. With how few times and how ineffective he's been throwing the ball deep, Penn State better pray it doesn't fall behind in this game because there's a very real shot the Nittany Lions don't get that lead back.

Additionally, Penn State's inability to break off big plays in the run game is a major hindrance against a Maryland defense that doesn't allow big plays on the ground.

Sure, the Nittany Lions have put up some great defensive numbers — which are inflated from pitching shutouts against UMass and Iowa — but they haven't faced too many good quarterbacks at the talent level of Tagovailoa.

With this being a massive lookahead spot for Penn State, I like the value on Maryland +8.5.