Purdue vs Michigan Odds, Prediction & Pick: Wolverines Have Something to Prove
David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Michigan’s JJ McCarthy (left) and AJ Barner (right).
- The Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan Wolverines meet in the Big House on Saturday night for a Big Ten college football battle.
- Michigan is a ginormous favorite of -32.5 less than a year after these two programs played in the Big Ten Championship.
- Check out our full Purdue vs Michigan betting preview with odds, a prediction and pick below.
Purdue Boilermakers vs Michigan Wolverines Odds
| Purdue Boilermakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+32.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +2500 |
| Michigan Wolverines Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-32.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
This Saturday, it will be a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship when the Purdue Boilermakers head to Ann Arbor to battle the Michigan Wolverines. The Wolverines won, 43-22, covering as 15.5-point favorites.
However, it will not feel like a championship rematch this season, as Michigan enters as a favorite of more than 30 points at the Big House this time around.
Michigan has been dominant this season, but this line is a byproduct of Purdue being 2-6 this season. It was just a 1.5-point underdog at Nebraska last week, but it fell behind, 24-0, before ultimately falling, 31-14, to a depleted Cornhuskers team.
Michigan was idle last week, and it came in at No. 3 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings — a spot below the No. 2 ranking it has held in the AP Poll all season.
After weeks of being in the public eye because of its sign-stealing scandal, Michigan may have a bit of motivation to light up the scoreboard this week.
Purdue looks quite a bit different from the team Michigan saw in the Big Ten Championship game a season ago. Head coach Jeff Brohm is now back home at Louisville, and the tandem of Aidan O'Connell and Charlie Jones is off to the NFL
First-year head coach Ryan Walters is now at the helm in West Lafayette, and his first season has not been ideal.
Texas transfer Hudson Card has been the starter at quarterback, and he ranks 102nd in FBS in QBR. Over his last two games, he has thrown for just 226 yards on 3.5 yards per attempt with a touchdown and two interceptions.
Granted, Ohio State and Nebraska have two of the top defenses in the Big Ten, but it won't get much easier for him at Michigan.
The Boilermakers rank 73rd in Passing Success Rate and 86th in passing explosiveness. Michigan has a tendency to allow one explosive pass per game before locking down the rest of the game, so don't expect Purdue to hit a ton of long passes this week.
Sophomore running back Devin Mockobee leads the team with 520 yards rushing and four touchdowns on 4.6 yards per carry. He ran for 110 yards against Ohio State three weeks ago and 71 yards and a touchdown against Michigan last season.
Purdue comes in at 53rd in Rushing Success Rate, and he's a big reason why.
Despite ranking in the top 75 nationally in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate, Purdue is 126th in Finishing Drives.
Converting drives into touchdowns will be a challenge, but keeping Michigan out of the end zone could be an even bigger challenge.
Walters has installed a 3-4 defense, and he already has a dynamic pair of edge rushers at outside linebacker. Senior Kydran Jenkins leads the Big Ten in tackles for loss (11.5) and sacks (7.0) while ranking sixth nationally. Sophomore Nic Scourton is not far behind him with 10 tackles for loss and five sacks himself.
Despite their production, Purdue ranks just 72nd in Havoc, and it hasn't covered up a dreadful secondary.
The Boilermakers ranks 103rd in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 133rd in PFF coverage grade. They could be in for a long night against J.J. McCarthy and the potent Wolverines offense.
McCarthy accounted for 10 touchdowns (eight passing) and three interceptions in his final three games last season. Three of those touchdown passes came against Purdue, and he has taken his game to an even higher level this season.
McCarthy leads the country in QBR, and his three interceptions all came in one game in the third contest of the season.
He's completing 75% of his passes in conference play, and he lit up rival Michigan State for 287 yards and four touchdowns in his last outing.
Michigan leads the country in Passing Success Rate. It also comes in at 13th in Rushing Success Rate even though its running game may not appear as dominant this season.
Senior tailback Blake Corum sits fourth in the Big Ten with 605 rushing yards while leading the country with 13 rushing touchdowns. Another 1,000-yard season is on the table for him.
Corum missed the Big Ten Championship game last year with a knee injury, but Donovan Edwards filled in for him with 185 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Edwards has yet to get on track as a runner this season, averaging 3.2 yards per carry. However, he has 21 receptions for 184 yards as well, and his dual-threat ability is what makes him a dynamic weapon.
Edwards is one of four Michigan pass-catchers with 20 receptions or more. Senior wide receiver Roman Wilson leads the way with 27 receptions for 446 yards and finds himself tied for third nationally with 10 touchdown receptions.
Tight end Colston Loveland caught two touchdowns against Michigan State, but fellow tight end AJ Barner still may have stolen the spotlight. Barner set career highs with eight receptions for 99 yards and a score.
As good as Michigan has been offensively, its defense has arguably been better. It's first nationally in scoring defense (5.9 PPG) Passing Success Rate, Finishing Drives and Quality Drives. The Wolverines also rank third in Line Yards, sixth in Rushing Success Rate and 10th in Havoc.
Josaiah Stewart. Jaylen Harrell, and Derrick Moore all rank in the top 20 in the Big Ten in sacks, while senior and emotional leader Mike Sainristil is tied for second in the Big Ten with three interceptions. He returned two of those for touchdowns, including a 72-yarder against Michigan State.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Michigan match up statistically:
Purdue Offense vs. Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 59 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 53 | 3 | |
| Pass Success | 73 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 104 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 126 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 76 | 1 |
Michigan Offense vs. Purdue Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 103 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 72 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 105 | |
| Quality Drives | 4 | 85 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 100 | 1 |
| PFF Coverage | 133 | 4 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 124 | 7 |
| Middle 8 | 120 | 1 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.3 (39) | 31.6 (132) |
| Rush Rate | 50.5% (87) | 60.1% (17) |
Purdue vs Michigan
Betting Pick & Prediction
Michigan has been the most complete team in the country this season, but its validity has been questioned because of its schedule. Now, it's being questioned because of the ongoing investigation around sign-stealing, which is all it heard about during its bye week.
I think we see a motivated Michigan team that will be looking to prove a point.
It also doesn't hurt that the Wolverines are 4-0-1 against the spread since head coach Jim Harbaugh returned from his suspension. Since then, Michigan has averaged 45.8 points per game while scoring at least 45 points in each of its last four games. It also topped 43 points against Purdue last season.
Michigan's passing attack is far more dynamic this season and is facing a rebuilding Purdue defense.
It won't be long before Walters turns that unit into one of the stingiest in the country as he did at Illinois, but it won't happen before Saturday.
Weather shouldn't be a factor here, which is a rarity for a November game in Ann Arbor. That should allow McCarthy to have another standout performance as he continues to move to the forefront of the Heisman Trophy race.
Expect McCarthy to lead the way in another 40-point outing for the Wolverines.
Pick: Michigan Team Total Over 41.5 (-104)
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