Virginia Tech vs Louisville Odds, Prediction: Defenses to Shine

ACC play continues to ramp up as two somewhat unexpected contenders meet in Louisville. The Virginia Tech Hokies bring their 3-1 conference record to Kentucky to take on Louisville, which is 4-1 in ACC play.

Virginia Tech comes into this game with a 4-4 record, but it's riding a two-game win streak over ACC opponents. The Hokies are 5-3 against the spread and have gone over in five games this season.

Louisville is 7-1 on the year and bounced back with a dominating win over Duke following its first 2023 loss. The Cardinals are 4-3-1 against the spread and have gone over in four games.

There will be steady winds and moderate temperatures in Louisville for this game. Temperatures will range from 58 to 62 degrees. The game will feature cross winds ranging from 4.8 to 8.0 miles per hour. This could have an impact on special teams play, but it's unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the passing game.

Here's our college football odds and pick for Virginia Tech vs. Louisville.

Brent Pry's second season as the Virginia Tech head coach is a clear improvement from his 3-8 debut season. The Hokies are averaging 26.1 points per game and 5.5 yards per play. The offense has a 41% Success Rate and scores an average of 3.72 points per opportunity. The offense allows a 16% Havoc Rate.

Virginia Tech ranks 92nd nationally with a 45% pass rate. As a team, the Hokies average 29.8 pass attempts per game and 218.4 passing yards per game.

Kyron Drones leads the Hokies' passing game with 1,237 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns, along just one interception. He's also contributed 400 rushing yards and four rushing scores.

As a team, Virginia Tech has a 38% Passing Success Rate and average 3.1 passes of 20-yards or more per game.

The Hokies average 39.6 rush attempts per game for an average of 162.5 yards per game. Bhayshul Tuten, who has 110 rush attempts, has contributed alongside Drones in the running game. Tuten has 478 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns.

As a team, Virginia Tech has 44% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line averages 2.99 Line Yards created per attempt and has allowed a 19.8% Stuff Rate.

The Hokies' defense has allowed 22.9 points per game and 5.2 yards per play. It ranks 20th nationally with a 36% Success Rate Allowed and is 18th in Havoc Rate at 20%.

The Hokies also have done a good job limiting explosiveness, with just 3.4 plays over 20 yards per game.

The one noteworthy weakness for this defense is that opponents have scored with relative ease once they cross the 40. The Hokies rank 94th nationally with 4.06 points allowed per opportunity.

It's hard to imagine a better debut season for Jeff Brohm's return to his alma mater.  The Cardinals are averaging 32.8 points per game and 6.6 yards per play. The offense has averaged a 48% Success Rate and has scored 3.71 points per opportunity. The offense allows an 18% Havoc Rate.

The Cardinals average 264.6 passing yards per game despite ranking 94th in pass rate. The passing game is led by Jack Plummer, who's completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 9.0 yards per attempt. He has 2,018 passing yards and 13 touchdowns.

While he's been very productive, Plummer has struggled with turnovers, as demonstrated by his nine interceptions.

As a team, Louisville has a 48% Passing Success Rate and has thrown 3.9 20+ yard passes per game.

Louisville is averaging 182.4 rushing yards per game on 38.4 attempts per game. Jawhar Jordan is the clear leader of the backfield with 110 rushes for 824 yards and 10 touchdowns.

As a team, the Cards have a 50% Rushing Success Rate and they average 5.25 runs over 10 yards per game. The Cardinals' offensive line generates 3.1 Line Yards per rush and have allowed a 17.8% Stuff Rate.

The Louisville defense ranks 19th in the country in scoring defense at 18.0 points per game. It allows a 35% Success Rate — which ranks 11th — and 5.0 yards per play.

The biggest strength for the defense is its 21% Havoc Rate, which has helped limit opposing scoring opportunities.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia Tech and Louisville match up statistically:

Virginia Tech Offense vs. Louisville Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	63	12
Line Yards	90	5
Pass Success	93	27
Havoc	89	47
Finishing Drives	84	80
Quality Drives	78	7

Louisville Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	19	41
Line Yards	63	47
Pass Success	26	22
Havoc	45	95
Finishing Drives	85	94
Quality Drives	19	30

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	90	24
PFF Coverage	99	73
Special Teams SP+	22	41
Middle 8	15	86
Seconds per Play	28.1 (88)	28.3 (93)
Rush Rate	57.1% (42)	56.6% (44)

As of this writing, 82% of bets and 83% of money is backing Louisville as a favorite. However, according to the PRO Report, sharp action has been tracked favoring Virginia Tech.

Approximately 62% of bets on the total have favored the over, but 84% of money is backing the under. Additionally, both sharp and big money bets have been tracked as favoring the under.

Pace of play and finishing drives are the two big keys to my preferred play. Both Virginia Tech and Louisville rank outside of the top 85 nationally in terms of pace and also lean on the running game with more than a 56% rush rate.

With these offenses, the clock will move quickly and limit possessions. With these two offensive styles, finishing drive efficiency will be critical to scoring above the total, and both of these offenses rank outside of the top 80 in terms of points per opportunity.