Thursday College Football Odds & Picks: 2 Bets for Liberty vs Sam Houston, Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky

Thursday nights are for football.

Along with Thursday's Bears vs. Commanders matchup in the NFL, we have two college football matchups to look forward to — Sam Houston vs. Liberty and Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech.

Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson and contributor Alex Hinton broke down both matchups with a full betting preview and dished out a pick and prediction for each.

So, let's strap in and enjoy a night full of football.

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Thursday College Football Betting Previews

The team logos in the table below represent each of our betting previews for Thursday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Alex Hinton

Sam Houston has long been one of the top FCS programs. However, it's gone 5-8 over the past two seasons and sits at 0-4 this year as it transitions to FBS.

Seeking their first win of the season, the Bearkats hit the road to battle the undefeated Liberty Flames.

Liberty has been successful in recent years and hasn't missed a beat with Jamey Chadwell now at the helm. The Flames have won all four games by double digits and are also 4-0 against the spread.

So, where does the betting value lie in this Thursday night college football matchup? Let's dive into the Sam Houston vs Liberty odds and make a pick and prediction in this college football betting preview for Oct. 5.

Sam Houston's defense is FBS-caliber, but its offense isn't. It scored just 10 points over the first three games, but the Bearkats enjoyed an offensive breakout last week, scoring 28 points and racking up 435 yards in an overtime loss to Jacksonville State.

Still, the overall numbers aren't pretty.

The Bearkats rank last in FBS in Success Rate and are averaging just 3.6 yards per play. They've been even less effective running the ball, averaging just two yards per carry. They also don't create many big plays, ranking 117th in explosiveness.

Running back John Gentry leads the teams in carries and ranks second with 11 receptions. Wide receiver Noah Smith, who is averaging nine yards per reception, leads the team with 17 catches and a touchdown.

Sam Houston's defense has been impressive at times this season, holding BYU to 14 points and Air Force to 13 in its first two games. Both programs have scored at least 27 points in every other game this season.

Sam Houston ranks 22nd in both Rushing Success Rate and defending explosiveness and sit 24th in Line Yards. Senior linebacker Trevor Williams leads the team with 48 tackles, including three tackles for loss. He has a lot to do with the Bears ranking fourth in PFF tackling grade.

PFF isn't as kind to the Bearkats' secondary. That unit ranks 91st in coverage grade but 56th in Pass Success Rate. It also has to cover for a bit longer, as the team has posted just three sacks this year.

If the Bearkats can't get much pressure this week, they'll have trouble slowing down Liberty's passing attack.

Liberty has averaged 30 points or more per game in four of the past five seasons. With Chadwell at the helm, it's averaging 40 points per game and ranks 13th in FBS in scoring offense. It has done so with a balanced attack, averaging over seven yards per play and 200 yards both passing and rushing.

The Flames have created big plays in the passing game and rank 18th in passing explosiveness. Quarterback Kaidon Salter is averaging 10 yards per attempt and has thrown 11 touchdown passes against just one interception.

His top targets, Treon Sibley and CJ Daniels, are each averaging over 20 yards per catch and have two touchdowns apiece.

Salter has also been a big part of Liberty's running game, racking up 268 yards and five touchdowns. Meanwhile, Quinton Cooley leads the team with 323 yards on the ground. Liberty's top four backs are each averaging over six yards per carry, and Salter isn't far behind at 5.7.

Liberty sits 84th in rushing explosiveness but 22nd in Success Rate. Its steady ground attack keeps the offense on schedule and sets up deep shots in the passing game.

The Flames have also done a good job up front, as they rank 24th in Line Yards and sixth in Havoc Allowed. Thanks to the solid line play, Salter has been sacked just three times on the year.

Conversely, Liberty's defense has done a good job of getting after opposing quarterbacks, ranking fifth nationally in Havoc and averaging 2.5 sacks per game. In fact, eight different players have at least one sack.

Teams can run on Liberty's 4-2-5 base, as it ranks 80th in Rushing Success Rate defensively. However, its nickel package has done wonders in the passing game, helping it rank 18th in Passing Success Rate.

Liberty is tied for third nationally with 12 turnovers, including 10 interceptions. Four different players have two, including Kobe Singleton, who returned one for a touchdown.

After opening at 17.5, this line is now at 20.5 points. For Liberty to cover, it will likely need to score 34 points, which it has done in three of its four games this season — and it still scored 33 in the other game.

Per each team's Success Rates, Liberty's offense has the advantage both on the ground and through the air. The Flames run the ball on nearly two-thirds of their offensive snaps, and early rushing success should set up downfield shots to Sibley and Daniels.

Additionally, Liberty's opportunistic defense could generate a few turnovers and give the offense a couple more opportunities to score.

Pick: Liberty Team Total Over 33.5

By Collin Wilson

Midweek Conference USA action continues with a game between two teams sitting undefeated in the standings.

Head coach Tyson Helton and Western Kentucky hold a victory over Middle Tennessee, as the Hilltoppers have so far lived up to the lofty expectations oddsmakers had for them to win Conference USA.

While a dip in the offensive numbers is apparent this season, this is still one of the most reliable teams in the country in terms of touchdowns and scoring opportunities.

To stay at the top of the conference standings, Western Kentucky must fend off a team dealing with key injuries in Louisiana Tech.

Head coach Sonny Cumbie has already had a successful season compared to last year after LA Tech finished with just three wins in Cumbie’s first year as head coach in 2022. This season, the Bulldogs have already achieved three wins, including conference victories over Florida International and UTEP.

After a fruitful transfer portal window this past spring, Cumbie has dealt with an injury at the quarterback position, allowing Jack Turner to slide in for Hank Bachmeier.

An upset victory in Joe Aillet Stadium would completely shake up Conference USA for a Louisiana Tech team that entered the season at +800 to win the league.

This version of the Western Kentucky offense is not as smooth as previous versions. The Hilltoppers have fallen in Passing Success Rate and Explosiveness while posting the 99th-best rank in Quality Drives.

Quarterback Austin Reed has produced sound numbers under center, including an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while maintaining a turnover-worthy play rate similar to last season.

While drops have remained steady at the receiver position, two key areas can be blamed. Reed has been sacked just twice this season, but with 63 pressures through five games, WKU is on pace to possibly double last year's pressure rate. That's bad news for the Tops considering Reed takes a 15% drop in adjusted completion percentage when rushed.

Another issue is the low average depth of target, moving from 8.6 to 7.5 yards.

To this point, Western Kentucky has completed only two passes beyond 40 yards, a low deviation from last year's total of 19.

The defense continues to be a struggle for Helton and coordinator Tyson Summers. The Hilltoppers haven't tackled or stopped the rush well, ranking second-to-last in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.

The numbers improve by a small margin against the pass, moving to 82nd in terms of explosives allowed.

Since the pandemic, Western Kentucky's defense has only had to limit opposing offenses a little bit because its offense can put up plenty of points, but the Hilltoppers are struggling to do that in 2023.

The Bulldogs were in the market for a quarterback in the offseason, and they pulled Bachmeier from Boise State to fill the void.

The results were as expected, as Bachmeier posted five touchdowns through the first four games before suffering an injury. Bachmeier has been absent the previous two games — a loss to Nebraska and a two-touchdown win over UTEP — while dealing with a shoulder injury.

If the fifth-year senior is unable to go in this one, Turner will get another start in Conference USA action.

Turner passes the test in terms of touchdown-to-interceptions, but the second-year quarterback has committed four turnover-worthy throws in 109 attempts.

The Louisiana Tech offense is balanced, as it has less success running the ball in standard downs. Both Tyre Shelton and Keith Willis Jr. average more than 4.1 yards after contact, combining for seven explosive runs on the season.

Wide receiver Smoke Harris continues to be a threat from the slot, producing three touchdowns on the year. Both Harris and Cyrus Allen average more than 2.1 yards per route run, making Louisiana Tech more explosive than methodical on the offensive side of the ball.

Defensive coordinator Scott Power has implemented a 4-2-5 scheme that sends a heavy amount of blitzes. Edge rusher J’Dan Burnett has benefitted the most, generating 13 pressures and 11 quarterback hurries on the season.

The strength of the defense comes against the pass, as it's generated top-15 ranks in Passing Success Rate and coverage. Cornerbacks Willie Roberts and Michael Richard have provided 13 pass breakups, which have accounted for half of the team's total swats.

The persistent troubles in Western Kentucky's passing game will be music to the ears of Louisiana Tech.

The Bulldogs have been a great coverage unit, as the aforementioned Roberts leads the nation with 10 forced incompletions. Richard has lined up at the other cornerback position and ranks sixth nationally in forced incompletions with seven on the season.

Reed could certainly struggle against a secondary that's caused plenty of interference through one month of play.

Whether Bachmeier or Turner starts at quarterback, there's reason to believe the ground game will gain plenty of yards in large quantities.

Western Kentucky ranks 125th defensively in limiting ground explosives. Only four teams in FBS have allowed more 20-yard gains on the ground than the Hilltoppers, a positive sign for Shelton and Willis.

The Action Network projection calls for Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech to be a pick'em with a total of 51.

The Hilltoppers will have issues getting the ball downfield against a stout Group of Five secondary. Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, will have moderate success creating explosives on the ground, leading bettors to invest in the Bulldogs and the under.

If Western Kentucky continues to struggle offensively in getting the ball downfield, Hilltoppers futures could be in jeopardy.

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