College Football Odds & Prediction for Central Michigan vs Buffalo: Target This Total

Here’s an ugly MACtion matchup.

I’m not super high on either Central Michigan or Buffalo. Neither team has a consistent offense, mostly due to lousy quarterback play.

Both defenses are horrific. But I ultimately expect bad defense to win out over bad offense in the long run.

The main question the Chips faced in the preseason surrounded the quarterback situation. Who could complete a forward pass?

Bert Emanuel is an electric dual-threat quarterback. But he can’t complete a forward pass.

So, the Chips turned to Jase Bauer. And he can maybe complete a forward pass!

He was great against Eastern Michigan, completing 19-of-26 passes (73.1%) for 218 yards and a touchdown in a close victory. He completed a key 11-yard pass on a fourth-quarter game-winning touchdown drive.

However, the Chips ran the ball four times for 47 yards in that big drive.

What does that mean?

It means the Chips are still a rush-first team.

That shows up in the numbers. Central Michigan is 26th in EPA per Rush and 82nd in EPA per dropback.

Central Michigan runs the ball at a top-30 rate nationally, averaging 35 run plays to 26 pass plays per game. And the young offensive line has held its own, ranking 43rd in Line Yards.

That's a big plus, as offensive line improvements are crucial for the Chips this season.

Lead back Myles Bailey has 300 yards across his five games with 23 missed tackles forced.

However, it's worth mentioning that backup running back Marion Lukes recorded all 47 rushing yards during the aforementioned game-winning drive.

Keep an eye on how the backfield usage shakes out during conference play.

Unfortunately, any positives about the Chips’ offense are negated by their defense, which ranks 123rd in Success Rate Allowed and 130th in EPA per Play Allowed. They allowed 42 points to FCS New Hampshire!

It's all discouraging for a unit that returned nine starters from last year.

Then again, Central Michigan lost big playmakers at linebacker during the offseason.

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The Bulls are horrendous.

They love to pass the ball, ranking 11th in passing plays per game (41). But they’re terrible at it, ranking 103rd in EPA per dropback behind quarterback Cole Synder, who's averaging 5.7 yards per attempt.

Snyder was always overvalued. He had 17 big-time throws and 28 turnover-worthy plays last year despite an 18:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also lost his top two receivers and top two tight ends in the offseason, so this regression was predictable.

Meanwhile, the Bulls' defense can’t stop the run. They lost both their defensive ends and star linebacker James Patterson during the offseason, and this fresh-faced unit ranks 123rd in EPA per Rush Allowed.

Behind stud safety Marcus Fuqua, the pass defense is passable. But it hasn’t seemed to matter, considering they allowed 38 points to Wisconsin, 40 points to Fordham, 55 points to Buffalo and 45 points to Louisiana.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Central Michigan and Buffalo match up statistically:

Central Michigan Offense vs. Buffalo Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	70	96
Line Yards	50	74
Pass Success	109	93
Havoc	79	56
Finishing Drives	38	78
Quality Drives	89	118

Buffalo Offense vs. Central Michigan Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	66	123
Line Yards	66	119
Pass Success	117	132
Havoc	42	126
Finishing Drives	28	114
Quality Drives	117	123

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	82	96
PFF Coverage	130	125
Special Teams SP+	106	64
Middle 8	78	120
Seconds per Play	29.6 (111)	25.1 (32)
Rush Rate	61.2% (25)	47.1% (110)

I’m not very confident in my handicap, but I’m placing a small wager on the Under for two reasons.

First, neither defense can stop the run, and both passing attacks are highly questionable. This could develop into a ground-and-pound, clock-draining, low-scoring game-script.

It's worth mentioning that two of Buffalo's top pass-catching options — wide receiver Nik McMillan and tight end Jacob Orlando — are questionable for Saturday's game with injury. The same goes for secondary running back Mike Washington. If any or all of those guys miss this one, the game could get even uglier.

Second, our Action PRO model projects 49.9 points for this game, giving us about three points of edge against the market.

Hold your nose if you’re riding with me on this game, given how horrific these defenses are.

For what it’s worth, I expect the Central Michigan defense to see some positive regression as the season progresses. This unit is too experienced to struggle this mightily through MACtion.