Week 14 College Football Odds, Predictions: Collin Wilson’s Championship Week Bets & Picks

Collin Wilson's Conference Championship Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

The college football regular season has come and gone, leaving us with Conference Championship Week starting on Friday.

The slate is a loaded one with 10 total games, including a number of matchups that feature heavy College Football Playoff implications.

The action starts on Friday, when the Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies take center stage in a rematch of one of the most highly-anticipated games of the regular season. The Ducks enter as a near double-digit favorite despite losing the first matchup, meaning their path to the playoff is essentially set if they take care of business.

Then, our attention turns to Arlington first thing Saturday, as the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Texas Longhorns hit the gridiron. Mike Gundy and the Pokes would love nothing more to knock the Horns out of CFP contention in Texas' final season in the Big 12.

We'll then go to Las Vegas on Saturday afternoon, with the UNLV Rebels looking to keep their magnificent against-the-spread record going against a rejuvenated Boise State Broncos team with the Mountain West Championship on the line.

Finally, to close out my Action Network betting card, we'll take a look at Atlanta, where the Georgia Bulldogs meet the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Tide need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, while the Dawgs hope to make it to the playoff unscathed with a third straight national title in their sights.

It'll be a great week loaded with quality football, so let's dive into my analysis and picks for four of college football's conference championship games below.

The final game in the current iteration of the Pac-12 will take place in Las Vegas, as Oregon and Washington hit the field with a spot in the College Football Playoff on the line.

A loss from Ohio State last week and a subsequent loss by a top-10 team in the SEC Championship all but guarantees that the winner of this game will move on to play in the national semifinals.

These two teams met in Week 7, when the Huskies won by a field goal in Husky Stadium.

The game was defined by one critical statistic: Oregon did not convert a single fourth down in three attempts. Head coach Dan Lanning did not regret any of the attempts, insisting the Ducks offense was built for an aggressive style of football.

A deeper dive into the box score presents better evidence for Oregon, which recorded more methodical drives and available yards.

Since Week 7, Oregon has gone on to beat every Pac-12 opponent by double digits. The opposite can be said for head coach Kalen DeBoer, winner of five straight games by 10 points or less.

With the market steaming in Oregon's direction, the time has come for the Pac-12 to return to the College Football Playoff.

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The Oregon offense has blazed a trail through conference play, ranking as the top overall team in terms of Success Rate.

Oregon ranks third in offensive momentum killer, a statistic that integrates fumbles, interceptions, sacks, 10-yard penalties and fourth-down turnovers. Only Georgia and Michigan have had better offensive momentum numbers in more than 800 snaps on the season.

The offense is led by Heisman favorite Bo Nix, who has thrown for 37 touchdowns on the season with just two interceptions.

Nix has an immaculate sheet when looking at mistakes, posting three turnover-worthy plays in 425 dropbacks on the season.

The electricity of the offense comes from running back Bucky Irving, wideout Troy Franklin and slot Tez Johnson.

Irving averages a whopping four yards after contact, generating 61 missed tackles on the season. Meanwhile, Franklin and Johnson might be the most electric duo in the country, as each averages at least 3.3 yards per route run.

The Ducks defense was expected to improve during the transition from Mario Cristobal to Lanning, the former Georgia defensive coordinator.

The nickel unit has been stellar stopping inside and outsize zone run concepts from opponents while maintaining a rank in the top 20 in coverage grading, per PFF.

Brandon Dorlus has been a terror at the edge position, generating 42 pressures. The secondary has been above the national average in Success Rate and explosives allowed in Cover 1 and quarters coverage.

The point spread in the Pac-12 Championship game is baffling considering Washington is undefeated and beat the Ducks earlier this season. The truth lies in the post-game win expectancy, as the Huskies will enter the offseason with the third-highest second-order win total — one that indicates a true record of 10-2.

Games against Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon all show that Washington came out on the lucky end of the scoreboard.

Despite the analytics, this is still an offense that can cook with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at the helm.

The Huskies are a heavy pass team, ranking sixth in Success Rate and top-20 in Quality Drives. Penix ended the regular season with 32 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

However, mistakes continued to pile up in the games following the matchup against the Ducks, concluding the season with three turnover-worthy plays against Washington State. There are rumors that Penix has suffered an injury, as the Cougars telegraphed every offensive play run by the Huskies.

On the other side, problems continue to persist for defensive coordinator Chuck Morrell.

The 2-4-5 defense is one of the nation's worst against the run, ranking 129th in Success Rate. Washington has not controlled the line of scrimmage against any competition, ranking near dead last in both Line Yards and Stuff Rate.

The Huskies' most extreme struggles come against inside zone and man run concepts from opponents.

The market has seen nothing but wagers on Oregon, as early investors have had no issues with the large point spread.

Our Action Network betting power ratings indicate the game should be closer to a touchdown, begging the question if the line shows value on the Washington side.

In fact, the Huskies did average more overall yards per play in their initial meeting.

Fourth downs and Finishing Drives killed the Ducks, who are expected to implement an aggressive offensive attack.

If there's a coverage look that can keep Penix at a more normal Success Rate, it's the Ducks' usage of Cover 1. The Oregon defense recorded just a single sack and no quarterback hurries in the initial meeting, allowing Washington to record three explosive drives.

Lanning may send more blitz in Las Vegas after the defense recorded nine quarterback hurries against Oregon State in Week 13.

There may be a heavier snap count for cornerback Trikweze Bridges, who limited star Washington receiver Rome Odunze to just a single catch on four targets during Week 7.

With these two explosive offenses, the advantage comes for Oregon against a poor rush defense in Washington. The Ducks called more pass than rush in the initial meeting, averaging 5.4 yards per play and creating an average third-down distance of 5.2 yards.

The law of averages suggests Washington will not be as lucky to create hard stops, as the Huskies are 90th in third-down defense. Irving should stuff the box score with yards after contact, as Washington ranks 130th nationally in broken tackles allowed.

The bigger question is whether or not Bo Nix utilizes designed rushing attempts this time around. After Nix's 2022 season ended with a high-ankle sprain, keeping the signal-caller in the pocket has been a major point of emphasis for Oregon.

Nix posted his highest number of rushing attempts on the season against Oregon State — two scrambles and three designed runs that resulted in a touchdown. The quarterback also ran for two touchdowns on three designed attempts against Cal in Week 10.

With a season average of 15 yards per game, the over on Nix's rushing yards prop along with a rushing touchdown are certainly candidates for investment.

Considering Washington has no answer for rushing attempts from Nix and Irving, Oregon is the team to win the conference and go to the College Football Playoff.

Washington totals have stayed in the 40s in the past two weeks against Washington State and Oregon State. The Huskies have hit the ground with Dillon Johnson, as they've called nearly as many runs as pass attempts.

Washington uses a heavy amount of inside zone rush attempts, a run concept the Ducks have had a high 55% Success Rate against.

The point spread is inflated, floating in the dead zone of backdoor cover territory while oddsmakers protect the ledger from teasers.

Any number at +9 or better puts value on the Huskies, but the better bet comes on the total. Oregon and Washington lit up the Seattle sky with 84 passing attempts in Week 7 with little regard for the ground game.

Look for Washington to use Johnson in an attempt to keep Nix and Irving off the field after possessing the ball for only 25 minutes in the initial meeting.

Pick: Under 66 or Better · Bo Nix Rushing TD

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Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark entered the conference's media days with a message that the conference would be "younger, hipper, cool."

Four new teams joined the conference this season, while Nelly was announced as the conference championship halftime performer.

The introduction of Colorado and a handful of other Pac-12 teams has generated plenty of noise to deter fans from one large factor — Oklahoma and Texas playing their last set of games in the conference.

Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy was furious with the departures, specifically for his home-state rivalry between the Cowboys and Sooners. Those tensions cooled in 2023, as the longtime Pokes coach insisted the Big 12 was in great shape and Oklahoma was headed for turbulent waters.

Saddled with no answers at quarterback and a fresh defensive coordinator from Division II, Gundy can now pull off the dream scenario of beating Oklahoma and Texas in their final seasons in the conference.

The Longhorns will look to secure a conference championship with hopes of making the College Football Playoff. Texas has not won the conference since it beat Nebraska in the 2009 season.

Head coach Steve Sarkisian was tasked with taking over a program that failed to meet expectations under Tom Herman, and he has reshaped a roster and coaching staff to get on the national stage.

With NIL deals in place to lure the best talent in college football, Sarkisian is well on his way to restoring Texas as the premier team in the country. First stop: a Big 12 Championship in the Longhorns' last-ever game within the conference.

Oklahoma State survived a musical chairs event of Big 12 teams looking to grab a spot in the conference championship game. With an Iowa State and Kansas State loss, the Cowboys' victory in Bedlam over Oklahoma turned out to be the head-to-head tiebreaker needed for an invitation to Arlington.

However, the Pokes have struggled severely to keep the identity that helped it win five straight in the middle of the schedule. After securing the victory in Bedlam, the Cowboys were blown out at UCF in bad weather.

Despite the struggles, the heroics of running back Ollie Gordon II have become the primary driver of the offense.

Oklahoma State prefers the use of man-blocking schemes with counter for Gordon, but the rate of EPA lowers when the offense can't stay on schedule.

The Pokes fall to 119th in explosives in passing downs, relying on journeyman Alan Bowman under center. Bowman failed to throw a touchdown in three of the Pokes' final four games, leaving the scoring duties to Gordon and the rushing attack.

The defense has also experienced struggles down the stretch, primarily against the pass. Oklahoma State ends the regular season outside the top 100 in explosives allowed, specifically ranking 111th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.

Opponents have done most of their damage in early downs, as the Cowboys are 130th in allowing explosives in standard downs.

Defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo has maintained the 3-3-5 personnel from his predecessors in Stillwater, but the Pokes have consistent issues with teams that run inside zone.

The Longhorns are on fire coming down the stretch, not only winning six straight but also scoring 57 points in the final regular-season game against Texas Tech.

Injuries were a concern toward the end of the season, as the Longhorns struggled a bit in victories over Kansas State and TCU. Running back Jonathan Brooks was injured against TCU, ending his 2023 season after 10 rushing touchdowns.

Sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers also missed a pair of games but returned for the final trio of contests, posting four touchdowns to two interceptions.

The explosiveness of running back Jaydon Blue was the biggest revelation in the team's victory over the Red Raiders.

Texas continues to be one of the best methodical offenses in the nation, ranking sixth nationally in Quality Drives.

There have been consistent issues for the Longhorns in scoring position, averaging just 3.7 points per drive that extends beyond the 40-yard line. Despite the 57 points it put up on Texas Tech, Texas averaged just three points per scoring opportunity.

The biggest advantage Texas has in any college football game head-to-head is its defensive front. Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has posted top-10 rankings in nearly every rush metric from Line Yards to Stuff Rate.

The aggressiveness of the 4-2-5 scheme carries over with opponent passing attempts, as the Horns are 11th in pass rush, per PFF. No offensive line in college football has been able to stop the defensive interior combination of T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II.

Yormark wants the Big 12 Championship game to be the premier event in college football, bringing musical acts and a "younger, hipper" vibe to the game. The issue is the matchup between two teams with a point spread over two touchdowns during an 11 a.m. local kickoff.

Oklahoma State has received nothing from Bowman and the passing attack, so Texas should be able to load the box as it plays Cover 3 and quarters coverage.

Stopping Gordon will be the main task for Texas' uber-talented defensive front. The Longhorns have dominated opponent rushing attempts that utilize man-blocking schemes and counters. This aspect will create longer distances on third down. Texas leads the nation in third-down defense, forcing an average distance to go of 7.6 yards.

The defensive side of the ball may be even more grim for Oklahoma State.

The Pokes have allowed at least 30 points in the last three games against the offenses of UCF, Houston and BYU. Both BYU and UCF exceeded the national average in Passing Downs Success Rate, while Houston logged eight explosive passes against the Cowboys.

Ewers has improved against the 3-3-5 scheme since his three-interception performance against Oklahoma State in 2022, which could be bad news for the Pokes.

Action Network projects this game at Texas -11, far below the market number. There's plenty of reason to believe Texas will look to score as many points as possible, as it may need style points to steal a College Football Playoff bid from Florida State.

With the ACC Championship game scheduled hours after the Big 12 Championship, look for Texas to replicate what BYU, Houston and UCF have done offensively while leaving the conference with a bang.

Pick: Texas Team Total Over 35.5

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The Mountain West used computer rankings to select its conference championship after UNLV, Boise State and San Jose State all finished with 6-2 conference records.

The Spartans didn't accumulate enough points in the prehistoric BCS power ratings system, so the Rebels will host a rejuvenated Boise State team that fired its coach less than a month ago.

Andy Avalos was named the 2022 Mountain West Coach of the Year last season, but interim head coach Spencer Danielson may be coaching the conference championship game for his bid to be the head coach in 2024 after leading the Broncos to two consecutive victories against Utah State and Air Force.

While the former linebackers coach tries to fill the Boise State vacancy, UNLV may be on the verge of having an empty head-coaching position as well.

The Rebels were picked to finish ninth in the Mountain West under new head coach Barry Odom. UNLV had an eventful offseason, one that saw the hiring and departure of Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator. Odom hit the jackpot in the search for a second coordinator, landing on Brennan Marion.

After numerous stops in FBS as an assistant, the Tulsa receiver has implemented his original "GoGo" offense at UNLV with great success.

Both Odom and Marion are being sought after for new positions, as Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas sets the scene to crown a Mountain West champion.

Let's dive into the UNLV vs. Boise State odds and make a prediction for Saturday's Mountain West Championship.

The GoGo offense first hit the radar in one of the biggest upsets in college football history when Howard beat UNLV as a 45-point underdog in Week 1 of the 2017 season.

Marion's offense includes at least three players in the backfield against defenses that run heavy in the secondary. Opponents are forced to crowd the box against 12, 21 and 22 personnel.

Multiple tight-end and running-back sets are on display with motion and no-huddle on more than 53% of snaps.

Once teams have dialed into stopping the hybrid triple option, quarterback Jayden Maiava has thrived against one-on-one coverage.

However, the Rebels defense has been substandard.

As the former Arkansas defensive coordinator, Odom runs a three-man front with various nickel and dime packages with the intent of stopping explosive plays. The Rebels have been better against the run than the pass, ranking 125th in defensive pass explosives allowed.

UNLV is just outside the top 50 in stopping the run, but controlling the line of scrimmage has been a consistent issue. The Rebels haven't created enough negative plays in the backfield, ranking 125th in Defensive Stuff Rate.

The results are in after Danielson's first two games as interim coach, as Boise State won both contests with a 100% post-game win expectancy against Utah State and Air Force.

With a season-ending injury to Maddux Madsen, quarterback Taylor Green returned to starting duty against the Aggies. The junior was less than spectacular in Week 13 against Air Force, throwing two interceptions while being a nonfactor in the rushing game.

The biggest reason for success over the past two weeks is the healthy backfield duo of George Holani and Ashton Jeanty.

To stop the Boise State offense, shutting down rushing attempts while detecting screens and wheel routes out of the backfield is crucial.

The Broncos have been successful in zone- and man-blocking schemes while flashing explosives in power-run formations. While coordinator Bush Hamdan never found success for Green similar to 2022, Boise State ranks top-10 in Rushing Success Rate.

Avalos' firing is not only linked to a disappointing win total but also the defensive slide in all categories. Boise State comes in at 130th in tackling, per PFF, which is one of the lowest marks in program history.

The Broncos have also sustained issues stopping opponents in scoring opportunities, ranking 98th in Defensive Finishing Drives.

The Avalos scheme allowed six or fewer players in the box, often bulking up the secondary in Mountain West play. Teams running inside zone and man concepts have had the upper hand against Boise State's consistently light box.

Both teams generate success and explosives through the rushing attack on offense, so the handicap for this Mountain West Championship is the ability of each defense to stop the rush.

Boise State's rushing attack is more methodical, ranking top-10 in Success Rate with an expected points rank outside the top 50. UNLV is mid-FBS in most running statistics but sits in the top 15 in rush explosives.

UNLV prefers to utilize running backs Vincent Davis Jr. and Jai'Den Thomas with inside zone through 21 personnel — two running backs and one tight end.

The lighter the box, the more success UNLV has in moving the chains and creating chunk plays.

The Boise State defense has met the national average in defending inside zone, although those numbers increase with the wrinkle of having just six defenders in the box.

The issue for the Broncos is missed tackles, a persistent issue even after Avalos' firing.

Boise State missed 23 tackles over the past two games, which is consistent with its season average. UNLV is in the top 25 in creating broken tackles, so expect the Rebels to score through explosives.

The Broncos boast a strong ground game with Holani and Jeanty using a number of run concepts.

Outside zone has been the most problematic for the Rebels defense, but every concept against the UNLV defense has created a positive number of explosive plays.

The big plays could come in early downs, as Boise State ranks 34th in explosives on standard downs against a UNLV defense that's in the bottom 15 of FBS in limiting standard down explosiveness.

Action Network projects Boise State as a short favorite, which is in alignment with the current market offering.

Explosives will be a part of the game on the fast track of Allegiant Stadium, especially with defenses that struggle to tackle and limit big plays.

Look for the the GoGo offense to take advantage of a Broncos defense that struggles to defend explosives and the red zone, just as Boise State will create scoring opportunities with Holani and Jeanty.

Pick: Over 58.5 or Better

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The SEC Championship game generally comes with the caveat that both teams can still make the College Football Playoff. In nine years of the selection committee choosing participants for the national semifinal, the SEC has been granted two spots twice.

Ironically, both Georgia and Alabama were selected in 2017 and 2021, as both programs advanced to the national title game.

Because there are seven legitimate cases to make the playoff, the loser of the SEC Championship is expected to exit the national stage for a New Year's Six Bowl.

Georgia had the easier path to Atlanta, collecting a strength of schedule rank of 59th.

With a new coordinator and quarterback, the Georgia offense took shape midseason. The Bulldogs rattled off over 130 points in three games during October, while questions continued to persist around a defense that has not looked the part of the previous teams that won two consecutive national titles.

Alabama had struggles to start the season, implementing a new offensive coordinator with no answers at quarterback. After a sluggish Week 3 victory over South Florida, head coach Nick Saban named his quarterback before the Crimson Tide went on to sweep the SEC schedule.

Now, Saban must take on his old defensive coordinator in Georgia head coach Kirby Smart.

The Crimson Tide had won seven straight in this series, but Smart got the best of his former boss with a win in the 2022 national title game.

The stakes could not be higher for the SEC Championship game, with the winner advancing to the playoff and the loser finding a home among the non-semifinal bowls.

The 2023 version of Georgia entered the season with an incredibly high standard after winning two consecutive national titles.

The offense has exceeded any expectations despite the move to offensive coordinator Mike Bobo and quarterback Carson Beck. The pair has led one of the most efficient offenses nationally, ranking top-10 in Success Rate.

Georgia leads the FBS in offensive momentum killer, a statistic that measures how often a team is responsible for ending a possession.

Bobo prefers a balanced offense, setting up deep play-action passes with the rush.

Running back Daijun Edwards leads the team in yards and touchdowns, while Kendall Milton averages more than four yards after contact. No matter if the run concept is inside or outside zone, Georgia has dominated every opponent's defensive front.

Beck has been one of the most accurate passers in college football, ranking seventh in catchable throw rate.

The stable of targets for the Bulldogs is loaded with players averaging more than the explosive mark of two yards per route run, including slot Dominic Lovett, tight end Brock Bowers, wideout Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and Ladd McConkey.

The questions surround the defense in Smart's quest to win a third consecutive title.

The Bulldogs' dominant defense has been the primary driver of the previous two national title runs. The numbers have tailed off in 2023, including a dip in Success Rate against the run and a slip in Havoc outside the top 50.

The biggest change is the ability to defend the end zone in opponent scoring opportunities. Georgia has allowed an average of 3.5 points on 50 opponent possessions that have crossed the Bulldogs' 40-yard line.

Alabama survived the Iron Bowl on a last-second heave by quarterback Jalen Milroe, softening the blow of the Kick-Six loss a decade before.

This may have been the most chaos-filled schedule for a one-loss team contending for the national title, as the Tide beat Arkansas, Texas A&M and Auburn by a combined 12 points.

Alabama has been powered by the defense, specifically a secondary that ranks second in coverage, per PFF.

Coordinator Kevin Steele uses his 3-3-5 personnel to pivot between quarters, Cover 1 and Cover 3. No matter what the Crimson Tide flash in the secondary, the defense comes in above the national average in Success Rate and limiting explosives against opposing offenses.

The rush defense has also been a primary driver, exceeding a 60% Success Rate against offenses attempting to run inside and outside zone.

The fault in the Alabama defense is similar to that of Georgia — its Finishing Drives mark continues to slide as the season progresses.

However, Alabama ranks 21st in Defensive Quality Drives, often preventing teams from reaching a scoring opportunity in the first place.

The offense, meanwhile, has been nothing but organized chaos the entire season. Alabama ranks 76th in Havoc Allowed, a measurement of opponent's tackles for loss and pass breakups.

The Crimson Tide have struggled to keep defenders from blitzing Milroe all season, as the quarterback has one of the highest pressure-to-sack ratios at 30%.

While teams may have the ability to flush Milroe from the pocket, there may be no better downfield passer in college football.

Milroe has better passing splits on the deep ball than short routes, throwing 15 touchdowns to a single interception on attempts over 20 yards.

More importantly, Milroe has logged 23 big-time throws and no turnover-worthy plays on explosive pass attempts. The quarterback has excelled in efficiency and expected points against Cover 3.

The point spread has not mattered over several head-to-head matchups between Georgia and Alabama. The game has been decided by less than a touchdown just once since 2008 — an overtime affair in the 2018 national title game.

The key question is if the inefficiencies of the defenses can be exposed by the opposing offenses.

Alabama prefers to rush on 63% of snaps with a heavy tendency toward inside zone concepts. The Georgia defense leads the nation in efficiency against inside zone, posting a 65% Success Rate and rarely allowing an explosive play.

Not only does Georgia have the ability to stop the Alabama rush, but Milroe's stellar deep ball will be contested. The Bulldogs have allowed just three catches of 40 yards or more the entire season.

On the other side, the Alabama defense has dominated inside zone all season. The only run concept that has seen mid-FBS success against the Crimson Tide is power, a rushing concept used on just 30 snaps by Georgia all season.

The bigger question is if Beck will connect with the explosive targets on the Bulldogs' roster. The junior's greatest success has come in 244 plays against Cover 3.

Alabama has dominated with Cover 3 in the secondary, posting a negative number in EPA per Play.

With so many defensive advantages for each team, the under has been the play early in the market.

If history is any indication of how Alabama and Georgia will play out, scoring will be light during first few possessions. These teams have met four times since 2018 in the SEC or National Championship, and those four games have seen a grand total of 13 points in the first quarter.

Action Network projects Georgia -4, giving value to Alabama in the current market.

The better bet, though, is on a sluggish start for both offenses. The Crimson Tide average the least amount of points in the first quarter on the season, while the Bulldogs have a larger contrast, averaging 6.8 points in the first quarter to 14.5 in the second.

Unless the special teams or defensive units decide to take a mistake to the house, look for this game to start with a grind.

Pick: 1Q Under 10.5

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