College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Washington State vs. Utah: Over/Under is Too Low

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Washington State vs. Utah: Over/Under is Too Low article feature image
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  • Utah hosts Washington State in Salt Lake City as it tries to rebound from two straight losses.
  • With Charlie Brewer leaving the program, the Utes will rely on Cameron Rising.
  • Alex Kolodziej breaks down the Pac-12 showdown and offers up his best wager.

Editor’s Note: It was reported Saturday morning that Washington State quarterback Jayden de Laura will not play against Utah after suffering a knee injury against USC.

Washington State vs. Utah Odds

Washington State Odds +15 (-115)
Utah Odds -15 (-105)
Moneyline +460 / -650
Over/Under 53 (-115 / -105)
Time 2:30 p.m. ET
TV Pac-12 Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Utah’s Kyle Whittingham may not have a Pac-12 title to his ledger, but the long-tenured head coach has been a model of consistency, winning at least nine games in six of the last seven full seasons.

The 2021 campaign, however, is off to a tumultuous start.

After dropping the Holy War to rival BYU as seven-point favorites, the Utes fell to San Diego State in triple overtime last Saturday.

To make matters worse, Baylor transfer and starting quarterback Charlie Brewer threw a wrench in Utah’s plans by leaving the program a mere days after his benching against the Aztecs.

Utah’s reeling, and the first order of business is laying double digits against Washington State in the first conference tilt of the season.

The Cougars took a 14-0 lead over USC last weekend before the Trojans ripped off 45 unanswered points. Washington’s now 0-3 Against The Spread (ATS) this fall and hasn’t covered since Week 1 of 2020.

Here’s our full preview for the Pac-12 clash, along with a pick on the total.


Washington State vs. Utah Betting Preview

Saturday, Sept. 25
2:30 p.m. ET
Pac-12 Network

Washington State Cougars

Washington State Offense

Utah must replace Brewer, but it isn’t the only offense dealing with issues under center.

Washington State quarterback Jayden de Laura could be a game-time decision after suffering an injury on the final play of the first half versus the Trojans. The sophomore went 10-of-17 for 117 yards, two touchdowns and one pick prior to exiting.

If he’s unable to go, look for Tennessee transfer and quarterback Jarrett Guarantano to take the reins. He sustained an injury in the opener against Utah State, but is trending in the right direction ahead of Week 4.

Bettors can typically rely on Wazzu to fill the scoreboard, but Nick Rolovich’s run-and-shoot offense is having difficulties finding its footing. The Cougars are averaging fewer than 5.0 yards per play three games in, despite playing a trio of exploitable defenses.


Washington State Defense

Washington State’s formidable against the rush, but quarterbacks are getting whatever they want through the air on the Cougars.

Wazzu ranks 121st in passing yards allowed per game (312.1) and 85th in completion percentage (64.3%). The defense as a whole has yet to record a stop in the red zone.

Not only are the Cougars on an 0-6 run against the spread dating back to last season, but five of the six opponents over that span have also cashed the team total. The lone exception was 2020 against USC, which missed by a half-point.

Washington State’s Last 6 Contests

Opponent Team Total Points Allowed
USC 34.5 45
Portland State 17.5 24
Utah State 24.5 26
Utah 33.5 45
USC 38.5 38
Oregon 34.5 43

Utah Utes

Utah Offense

Brewer’s departure paves the avenue for Cameron Rising to get the nod Saturday.

The sophomore earned the starting job last year but had his campaign derailed after a season-opening injury against USC.

Brewer looked fine against Weber State before collapsing versus BYU and San Diego State. A third-quarter pick versus the Aztecs prompted Whittingham to pull the plug, and all Rising did was throw for three touchdowns in relief, nearly leading a double-digit comeback.

Utah was held under its team total at BYU, then padded the score with seven overtime points last week. The offense has been dull, particularly the passing game as it’s posted the eighth-lowest yards per completion (8.4) in the entire country.

The big play (31st nationally) is the only thing keeping Utah afloat; otherwise, its in the back half in both Rushing and Passing Success.

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Utah Defense

Whittingham’s units are traditionally stout, this one included. It’s just outside the top-10 nationally in SP+ defense.

However, the public is too keen on the Utes and we’re starting to see some suppressed numbers for their opponents. If you can believe it, Utah has allowed 10 of its last 11 opponents dating back to 2019 to go over the team total.

The Utes enter Week 4 in the back half of the country in both Rushing Success and Havoc.


Washington State vs. Utah Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington State and Utah match up statistically:

Washington State Offense vs. Utah Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
33
70
Line Yards
74
59
Pass Success
65
41
Pass Blocking**
20
43
Big Play
19
29
Havoc
95
68
Finishing Drives
76
62
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Utah Offense vs. Washington State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
109
44
Line Yards
57
33
Pass Success
79
117
Pass Blocking**
109
65
Big Play
31
78
Havoc
77
62
Finishing Drives
61
108
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
62
19
PFF Coverage
101
60
Middle 8
102
111
SP+ Special Teams
47
111
Plays per Minute
89
49
Rush Rate
46.8% (108)
43.5% (118)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Washington State’s defense holding the edge in Rushing Success and Line Yards has to flip in Utah’s favor if it wants to cover as two-score chalk.

Rising’s played in meaningful action, so I wouldn’t expect Whittingham to hold his hand amid a series of run plays.

The coaching staff needs to exploit a Wazzu secondary that’s 117th in Pass Success.


Washington State vs. Utah Betting Pick

Here, we have two offenses that don’t run the ball, one defense that can’t stop the pass and another that’s vastly overrated in the betting markets.

Sounds like the perfect recipe for an over.

Washington State’s let each of its last six opponents name the score. Across the last 12 as a road underdog, the program’s cashed nine overs.

The Utes, meanwhile, shouldn’t be downgraded offensively. The Brewer experiment was a colossal failure, and the replacement is a quarterback who immediately injected life into the unit late last weekend.

Utah totals need some adjustments heading forward. Frankly, this is too low, so I’ll keep firing over until they’re made.

Pick: Over 54.5 (play to 55)

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