Georgia vs. Auburn Odds, Picks: The Spread & Total Bets to Make for Saturday’s Top-Tier SEC Clash (October 9)
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Bo Nix.
Georgia vs. Auburn Odds
|Moneyline||-675 / +475|
|Time||3:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.|
After a defensive clinic against Arkansas, the Georgia Bulldogs must get up for another SEC heavyweight with a trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Kirby Smart relied on trench play on both sides of the ball to produce enough yards on offense and stops on defense to put up a lopsided final score.
JT Daniels did not play in the game due to a lat injury, but an experienced backup in Stetson Bennett filled in admirably.
The Bulldogs produced an average of 6.5 yards in standard downs on offense, a National Championship number when combined with a defense that stuffed half of the Razorbacks’ rushing attempts.
Auburn got healthy in a trip to Baton Rouge as a field-goal underdog.
The knock on quarterback Bo Nix was the failure of producing in a big game and on the road. The former Mr. Football from the State of Alabama had his best game of the season, generating three big-time throws and just a single turnover-worthy play.
While the defense stuffed LSU rushing attempts and explosive plays, Nix made the touchdown pass of the season to keep Auburn in the national title picture.
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) October 3, 2021
Georgia vs. Auburn Betting Preview
Stetson Bennett’s Mark on the Point Spread
The market made an adjustment in the 11th hour after the news of JT Daniels not suiting up for the Bulldogs.
The spread against Arkansas reached as high as Georgia -19, but more speculation around Daniels’ health and confirmation of his sitting out moved the line to Georgia -15.5. The closing line ended -16.5, indicating the drop from JT Daniels is as small as 2.5 points.
Bennett was serviceable when asked, completing 7-of-11 passing attempts with one turnover-worthy throw.
The win over Arkansas was based on a power run attack that included defensive linemen blocking for Zamir White and the emerging Kendall Milton.
Zamir White with the diving touchdown for the Dawgs 😤 pic.twitter.com/Vg3Vsm2LUg
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 2, 2021
Without JT Daniels under center, Smart may elect to continue an offensive attack that called rush on 56 of Georgia’s 67 plays against Arkansas.
On the season, Georgia has almost twice as many attempts on the ground with a Success Rate 18% above the national average. While there has been a substandard mark in explosiveness, Georgia dares defenses to shut down a heavy-run game.
No matter if the Bulldogs defense is consumed with spreadsheets or eyeball viewing, this is shaping up to be an all-time college football unit.
Georgia has allowed numbers well below the national average in standard and passing downs, but in passing plays specifically, opponents have tallied 17% below the national average.
Georgia has allowed just a single rush attempt over 20 yards.
When Jalen Carter isn’t leading the team in defensive pressures, he blocks three on the offensive line.
Jalen Carter eating up Hog defenders pic.twitter.com/6LCnKCecsy
— Greg Brandt (@devywarehouse) October 2, 2021
This defense has allowed just two touchdowns the entire season, both fourth-quarter entries by UAB and South Carolina.
Opponents are averaging less than a point per trip past the 40-yard line. On the season, there have been five opponent trips to the red zone, with all three converted scores going as field goals.
This will be put to the test against an Auburn offense that has scored in 15-of-16 attempts in the red zone this season.
Pack a Lunch, Bo Nix and Tank Bigsby
Nix has a clean season record from the point of touchdowns to interceptions, but a closer look shows a log of a turnover-worthy play in every game except Akron.
Nix has increased his average depth of target and produced three big-time throws in the victory over LSU.
Passing pressure is key, as Georgia ranks second overall in pass rush. To Nix’s credit, identifying pressure and learning to throw away has been key to keeping the Auburn offense on the field. Nix is achieving his best season when the blitz is called, logging a 3% better-adjusted completion rate.
Bo Nix is just running around like a madman.pic.twitter.com/wzyr98hUpX
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) October 3, 2021
While there are question marks around this offensive line protecting Nix in the passing game, there may be an advantage in establishing the run with Tank Bigsby.
Auburn is 13th in Line Yards, and the Tigers running game averages 6.9 yards per attempt on the season. Defenses have stuffed the Auburn rush attack 10% less than the national average.
The emergence of Jarquez Hunter has added another explosive element with 4.9 yards after carry and 18 missed tackles created.
— Auburn Football (@AuburnFootball) October 3, 2021
Stopping the Ground Game
Auburn was a much different handicap in Week 5 against LSU, a team that wanted to line up and throw.
This game will test Auburn’s rush defense, a unit that ranks 16th in Rushing Success Rate. The Tigers support a grade of 13th in tackling and have been top-20 in stopping the explosive play on the ground.
The linebacker duo of Zakoby McClain and Chandler Wooten leads the team in tackles.
Smoke Monday and Roger McCreary have seen a Stetson Bennett-led Georgia offense. The Bulldogs managed just a single explosive drive despite Auburn creating zero pressure on Bennett.
Auburn’s mission is to stop an offensive line that is plowing holes against good competition, but in passing downs situations, expect the secondary to generate a few third-down stops.
Georgia vs. Auburn Matchup Analysis
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Georgia Offense vs. Auburn Defense
Auburn Offense vs. Georgia Defense
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Georgia vs. Auburn Betting Pick
Despite a tempo mark of 113th in the nation, Georgia is putting up plenty of offensive points in each game since the opener against Clemson. In 20 red-zone opportunities, the Bulldogs have punched 14 into the end zone.
Georgia is 20th in the nation in time of possession in part to the defense giving up so few first downs. The Auburn defensive front will struggle to keep the Bulldogs’ ground game out of standard downs, which will equal plenty of scoring opportunities for a Georgia team that is 20th in Finishing Drives.
Auburn has similar numbers when crossing the 40-yard line. A rank of 12th in Finishing Drives is highlighted by 16 red-zone trips that resulted in 11 touchdowns and a handful of field goals.
Both of these teams know how to score in opponent territory. The biggest question is whether or not Auburn will be able to get the ball into Georgia territory.
The Action Network projection on the game makes Georgia -12 with a total of 51.5. There are edges in both of the numbers, although there is no reason to act on a spread that sits in a dead zone. Waiting until Saturday morning to see the final injury list for Georgia may give the bump needed to grab Auburn +16.5 or better.
As for the total, offensive coordinator Mike Bobo has Auburn running at a tempo rank of 31st in the nation. The entire offensive playbook will be on display from the first snap, using 11 and 12 formations and hiding run versus pass with pre-snap motion and no-huddle.
Because Auburn has an equal balance of run and pass that the Georgia defense must respect, there should be points on the board.
The pace of Auburn’s offense not only means an increased chance of points but also more possessions for a Georgia offense that is slicing through college defenses.
With a projection of 51 on the total, in coordination with tempo and two offenses that score more touchdowns than field goals, the over is suggested through the key of 48.