College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Navy vs. Houston: How to Bet Saturday’s AAC Matchup (Sept. 25)

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Navy vs. Houston: How to Bet Saturday’s AAC Matchup (Sept. 25) article feature image
Credit:

Bob Levey/Getty Images. Pictured: Dana Holgorsen.

  • The Navy Midshipmen and Houston Cougars meet in AAC action on Saturday night.
  • The Cougars enter this matchup as large favorites with the spread nearing three touchdowns.
  • Check out Mike Bainbridge's full betting preview below, complete with odds, picks, and predictions.

Navy vs. Houston Odds

Navy Odds +19 (-105)
Houston Odds -19 (-115)
Moneyline +750 / -1250
Over/Under 47 (-105 / -115)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPNU
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Houston Cougars (2-1) are looking to build some momentum as American Athletic Conference play begins this week when they take on the Navy Midshipmen (0-2).

After a crushing opening-week loss to in-state rival Texas Tech, the Cougars have dominated their last two opponents, outscoring Rice and Grambling State by a combined 89-7.

As for Navy, it has been a whirlwind the last few weeks with athletic director Chet Gladchuk firing longtime offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper, only to re-hire him to serve as quarterbacks coach after Ken Niumatalolo asked him to reconsider.

When it comes to matchups between Navy and Houston, overs are typically the play as the number has hit in five of the last six contests between the two.

The Cougars have also hit the over in five of their last seven home games.


Navy vs. Houston Betting Preview

Saturday, Sept. 25
7 p.m. ET
ESPNU

Navy Midshipmen

Navy Offense

The Midshipmen are 0-2 this season. They scored 10 points in two weeks and have scored just two touchdowns in their last five games dating back to last season.

Heck, they only entered the red zone twice in that span. That’s how dismal this offense has been.

Change was needed, and you could argue it should’ve happened much sooner.

Following Jasper’s demotion, Niumatalolo confirmed he’ll call the plays moving forward. However, since Niumatalolo stated that he was previously already heavily involved in the offense, should we really expect drastic improvements?


Navy Defense

Defensively, Navy is only marginally better as it ranks 59th nationally in total defense, 111th in pass success and 117th in Finishing Drives.

If there’s one edge the Midshipmen could have Saturday, it will be defending the run, where they’ve limited opponents to just 3.11 yards per carry on the year and held Air Force to a season-low 176 yards in Week 2.

Potentially facing a backup quarterback and a true freshman running back, it would help Navy’s cause significantly if it can make Houston one-dimensional on offense.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Houston Cougars

Houston Offense

What is the status of starting quarterback Clayton Tune? Maybe the other question we should be asking is: does it matter?

Backup Ike Ogbogu came in for the injured Tune last weekend against Grambling State and completed 14-of-22 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns.

Head coach Dana Holgorsen stated after the game that Tune hadn’t practiced much leading up to Saturday after suffering a hamstring injury.

The other development last week for the Cougars was the emergence of talented true freshman running back Alton McCaskill, who finally took over the reins in the backfield by rushing for 114 yards and two touchdowns.

This is still an offense that ranks 90th in Rush Success and 101st in Line Yards, but McCaskill adds some punch that the veteran running backs don’t possess.


Houston Defense

On defense, Houston has been solid across the board, ranking in the top 10 in both passing and total defense, while also limiting opponents to just 3.31 yards per carry on the ground.

Against Grambling State, the defense allowed just three first downs all game and held the Tigers’ offense to 0-and-14 on third-down attempts.


Navy vs. Houston Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Navy and Houston match up statistically:

Navy Offense vs. Houston Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
117
12
Line Yards
59
67
Pass Success
129
16
Pass Blocking**
125
24
Big Play
116
26
Havoc
127
15
Finishing Drives
128
14
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Houston Offense vs. Navy Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
90
63
Line Yards
101
5
Pass Success
71
111
Pass Blocking**
24
74
Big Play
85
72
Havoc
119
85
Finishing Drives
2
117
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
33
35
PFF Coverage
129
49
Middle 8
124
55
SP+ Special Teams
118
83
Plays per Minute
104
110
Rush Rate
80.9% (3)
53.5% (72)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Navy vs. Houston Betting Pick

The murky status surrounding Tune’s health would normally give us pause here, but Ogbogu moved the offense well enough that this wouldn’t be a significant downgrade if he was forced into the starting role this week.

For Navy, will one bye week of reflection and rare turmoil within the program fix the offensive woes that have extended well over a year at this point?

Doubt it.

In last year’s matchup, the Cougars allowed then-Navy quarterback Dalen Morris to throw for 206 yards and two touchdowns while holding the Midshipmen to 21 points.

Navy has thrown for just 217 yards combined in its last five games and it doesn’t look capable of replicating that kind of performance.

Pick: Houston -20

How would you rate this article?