Central Michigan vs. Toledo Odds, Picks: Target Total in This MAC Affair

Central Michigan vs. Toledo Odds, Picks: Target Total in This MAC Affair article feature image

Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Dequan Finn (Toledo)

  • Central Michigan takes on Toledo in a battle between two MAC teams.
  • The Rockets gave up 77 points to Ohio State, but they are a better team than that based advanced stats.
  • Matt Wispe breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.

Central Michigan vs. Toledo Odds

Saturday, Oct. 1
3:30 p.m. ET
NFL Network
Central Michigan Odds
-112o / -108u
Toledo Odds
-112o / -108u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

It's time to kick off MAC play, as Toledo hosts Central Michigan for a mid-afternoon game. With both teams entering this game coming off of multiple losses in a row, which program will change the course of its season with a win?

Central Michigan enters this game with a 1-3 record and is coming off of a road loss to Penn State. The Chippewas are 2-2 against the spread and have gone over in two games.

After starting off the season with two wins, the Toledo Rockets will look to rebound after back-to-back tough games. They come into this matchup with a 2-2 record after a road loss to San Diego State. The Rockets are 1-3 against the spread and have gone over in two games.

This game will feature crossing winds up to 15 miles per hour, which can play a role in scoring. Both the passing game and special teams could be affected by the weather.

Central Michigan Chippewas

Scheduling hasn't made life easy for Jim McElwain's team. With two ranked Power Five opponents in its first four games, it's no surprise that Central Michigan has lost multiple games.

The Chippewas are averaging 30.8 points per game and 5.7 yards per play. They have a 45% Success Rate and are averaging 22.2 seconds per play.

In his second season as the starting quarterback, Daniel Richardson has completed 57.6% of his passes for an average of 6.5 yards per attempt. He's thrown nine touchdowns and four interceptions.

As a team, the Chippewas have a 43% Success Rate and are averaging 4.25 passes over 20 yards per game.

After leading the nation in rushing yards in 2021, Lew Nichols III has struggled to start the season. He's averaging 3.9 yards per rush and has 325 rushing yards. He's amassed 422 yards from scrimmage and has scored five touchdowns.

As a team, the Chipps have a 49% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line has generated 3.36 Line Yards per play and has allowed a 19.4% Stuff Rate.

Defense has been area of concern for this team. Central Michigan is allowing 32.2 points per game and 5.4 yards per play. It's allowing a 43% Success Rate and 4.07 points per opportunity, which rank 84th and 87th, respectively. The Chipps are generating Havoc on 19% of plays.

Toledo Rockets

After starting the year off with two wins, the Rockets now find themselves reeling thanks to a two-game losing streak.

Now back in their home stadium, they'll have a chance to get things back on track.

They are averaging 31.8 points scored per game and 5.7 yards per play. They average 24.9 seconds per play and have a 40% Success Rate.

In his second season as the starting quarterback, Dequan Finn is completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 7.3 yards per attempt. But he's only managed to throw six touchdowns, and he's also thrown five interceptions.

His legs have played a bigger role in his success, as he's averaged 6.8 yards per rush and scored five times.

As a team, Toledo has a 43% Passing Success Rate and its thrown 2.75 passes over 20 yards per game.

Finn's 252 rushing yards leads the team, but two running backs have more than 30 carries and over 100 yards.

As a team, the Rockets are averaging 4.7 yards per rush and have a 41% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line has created 3.23 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 14.3% Stuff Rate.

While most nationally will only see the Toledo defense as the team that allowed 77 points to Ohio State, it's played generally well as a unit. In the Rockets' other three games, they've allowed just nine points on average.

Even including the Ohio State performance, they've allowed 26 points per game and 5.3 yards per play. They've allowed a 38% Success Rate and 4.37 points per opportunity.

They've struggled to create negative plays and turnovers, as they're only generating Havoc on 12% of plays.

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Central Michigan vs. Toledo Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Central Michigan and Toledo match up statistically:

Central Michigan Offense vs. Toledo Defense
Rush Success3427
Line Yards3984
Pass Success4188
Pass Blocking**116103
Finishing Drives60100
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Toledo Offense vs. Central Michigan Defense
Rush Success5054
Line Yards4939
Pass Success70104
Pass Blocking**10440
Finishing Drives4187
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling7242
PFF Coverage8656
SP+ Special Teams12084
Seconds per Play22.2 (13)24.9 (32)
Rush Rate42.7% (120)56.0% (50)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Central Michigan vs. Toledo Betting Pick

Central Michigan is a popular pick for this game. As of this writing, 66% of the money has come in favor of the Chippewas, as well as 54% of bets.

But with both of these teams struggling early, picking a preferred side isn't as clear.

A stronger play is on the total.

With two teams that would prefer to run the ball, and with inconsistent passers on both sides, the clock will tick away quickly.

And with weather conditions that could impact passing and special teams, scoring will likely be at a premium.

For those reasons, my preferred play on this game is under 56.5.

Pick: Under 56.5 (Play to 55)

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