Miami vs Duke Odds, Picks, Predictions | How to Bet Saturday’s ACC Showdown
Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Van Dyke (Miami)
Miami vs Duke Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -115 | 58.5 -118o / -104u | -385 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 58.5 -118o / -104u | +300 |
Last season was a bit of a nightmare for Duke. The Blue Devils had seven losses of at least 25 points and head coach David Cutcliffe was fired after 14 seasons.
The final game of the Cutcliffe era came at home, when the Blue Devils fell 47-10 against these Miami Hurricanes. They were outgained in that game 530 to 219 in offensive yards.
Since then, Mike Elko and the Blue Devils have already surpassed last season's win total (4-3) and are looking to continue to outperform expectations against a disappointing Hurricanes team that once had top-10 aspirations.
Has Duke improved enough to stay within single digits of Miami (FL) for just the second time in program history, or have the Hurricanes finally hit their offensive stride?
Miami Hurricanes
It would be an understatement to say it hasn't been the immediate program transformation that Hurricanes fans had hoped for when Mario Cristobal took over the program this offseason.
Three straight losses — including a double-digit loss to Middle Tennessee — can quickly derail a season.
The good news, however, is that quarterback Tyler Van Dyke is finally looking like the budding star that he showed flashes of in 2021.
After averaging just 202 yards passing through the first four games of the season, Van Dyke has passed for 838 total yards the last two weeks in a loss to North Carolina and win against Virginia Tech.
Neither of these defenses are exactly elite, but the performances should nonetheless give the quarterback his confidence back.
Van Dyke has had solid support from a run game that is third in Success Rate. The only problem has been the Hurricanes' lack of interest in actually running the ball. They rank 109th in Run Rate and are just 78th in rushing offense (144.4 yards per game).
While the offense has left much to be desired for most of the season, the Hurricanes have stayed in most games thanks to their defense. Miami has held four of six opponents this season to under 100 yards rushing and is ninth in Rush Success on defense.
The defensive line has also wreaked Havoc on opposing passing games, ranking seventh in the country in Pass Blocking and sacks per game (3.5). Miami (FL) will far and away be the best total defense Duke has faced this year.
Duke Blue Devils
A bitter 2022 for Duke against dreaded rival North Carolina continued last week, as the Blue Devils surrendered a touchdown with only 16 seconds remaining to lose at home to the Tar Heels by three points.
Despite the loss, the Blue Devils maintained their impressive season-long performance on the ground, rushing for 292 yards and four touchdowns on 41 carries.
Behind a strong offensive line that is 10th and 20th in Line Yards and Havoc, respectively, Duke ranks 24th in the nation with 205.9 yards rushing per game.
Quarterback Riley Leonard has been a solid game manager in his first year as starter, but the bread and butter of the offense continues to be the run game.
The defense has been a bit more of a struggle for the Blue Devils. The unit has allowed over 500 yards of offense three times this season, including 511 to a Northwestern team that hasn't topped 380 in four games since.
The Duke defense is 99th in Pass Success and 100th in Coverage, which could be a problem with Van Dyke entering on a bit of a hot streak for Miami.
Miami vs Duke Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and Duke match up statistically:
Duke Offense vs. Miami Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 9 |  |
| Line Yards | 10 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 21 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 33 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 20 | 14 | |
| Finishing Drives | 91 | 18 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Miami Offense vs. Duke Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 68 | |
| Line Yards | 62 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 48 | 99 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 49 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 41 | |
| Finishing Drives | 74 | 66 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 95 | 103 |
| PFF Coverage | 100 | 41 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 62 | 18 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (103) | 25.2 (34) |
| Rush Rate | 56.2% (45) | 46.3% (109) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Miami vs Duke Betting Pick
This game appears to be one of those classic team strength versus team strength. Duke relies on it rushing attack to stay in games, while Miami's defensive line has been its best unit.
I think Miami's defense has enough of an edge to slow Duke's stable of running backs. Van Dyke should come close to his third straight game of at least 300 passing yards against a questionable Duke secondary.
Leonard has yet to prove that he can be the reason Duke wins a game. He'll likely be playing catch up against the best defensive line he's faced in his short career as starting quarterback.
Throw in the fact that Duke is coming off that emotional home loss last week, and I like the Hurricanes to win this by 10.
Pick: Miami -9 (Play to -9.5) |
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