Kansas State vs. Oklahoma Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Week 4 Over/Under
Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Jeff Lebby & Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma)
- Chris Klieman and the Kansas State Wildcats head to Norman to take on Brent Venables and the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday.
- The Sooners enter as nearly two-touchdown favorites, but we see betting value on the over/under.
- Check out BJ Cunningham's full betting guide for Kansas State vs. Oklahoma below.
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma Odds
Oklahoma looks to stay undefeated against Kansas State, one of the teams its had the most trouble with over the years.
Three out of the last five times Kansas State has traveled to Norman, it pulled off an upset, which is not an easy feat considering Oklahoma has only lost eight times in Norman since 2012.
Kansas State was the darling long shot everyone loved to potentially crash the party and win the Big 12 this season. Well, after a 16-10 loss at home to Tulane, it seems like the glass slipper may not fit Cinderella after all.
Oklahoma looks like even more of a juggernaut than it has in years past, as it absolutely trounced Nebraska, 49-7, last Saturday in Lincoln. Brent Venables seems to have the defense figured out, while Dillon Gabriel looks strong.
The Wildcats were awful last Saturday at home against Tulane, averaging only 4.6 yards per play with a 39% Success Rate. They passed Tulane's 40-yard line just three times and that came with only 10 measly points.
You'd think an offense with Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn would be putting up bigger numbers than what Kansas State is right now.
The Wildcats have been extremely rush-heavy, running the ball on 62.50% of their offensive plays. It hasn't been that effective because they're averaging 4.9 yards per play. The Cats rank 89th in EPA/Rush and sit 53rd in Rushing Success Rate.
Martinez has also been really bad as a passer. Through three games, Martinez has averaged 4.9 yards per attempt, while his team ranks 116th in Passing Success Rate and 130th in Passing Explosiveness.
It's hard to see how the Wildcats are going to move the ball against Venables' defense.
Kansas State's defense has been outstanding this season, which is expected given the amount of talent it had coming back.
Through three games, the Wildcats are 15th in Success Rate Allowed and 10th in EPA/Plays Allowed, and are only giving up 4.1 yards per play.
The front seven is the weakness of the defense right now — ranking 68th in EPA/Rush — but the Wildcats have their two best defensive linemen, Felix Anudike-Uzomah and Eli Huggins, back from last season.
That has shown early on, as Kansas State is 37th in Havoc and the two have already combined for 3.5 sacks.
The Kansas State secondary has been outstanding, even after losing its star safety Russ Yeast from last season. The Wildcats have one of the best cornerback duos in the Big 12 in Ekow Boye-Doe and Julius Brents, who have only allowed a combined 84 yards in coverage this season.
That has led the Wildcats to ranking sixth in EPA/Pass and 15th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
This will be by far the best secondary Gabriel has seen this season.
The Oklahoma passing attack has been an absolute wagon through the first three games. Gabriel is already averaging 9.6 yards per attempt and has seven touchdowns and no Turnover Worthy Plays.
Marvin Mims has been going crazy to begin the season, as he already has 310 receiving yards on just 14 catches, with an ADOT of 15.6 and a PFF receiving grade of 85.9.
Oklahoma has Eric Gray at running back, and he has also been on fire, rushing for 7.7 yards per carry. He also posted the best PFF rushing grade of anyone in the country in Week 3.
— 𝕆𝕂𝕃𝔸ℍ𝕆𝕄𝔸-𝕍𝕊-𝕋ℍ𝔼 𝕎𝕆ℝ𝕃𝔻 (@soonergridiron) September 17, 2022
Gray runs behind a very experienced offensive line that consisted of 125 starts combined coming into the season.
The Sooners also may want to lean on the run game in this one since that is the weakness of the Kansas State defense.
Venables seems to have completely turned around the Oklahoma defense in record time. Through three games, the Sooners have allowed 22 total points and 3.8 yards per play (11th in FBS), and rank 18th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Now, the argument is that Oklahoma hasn't played a difficult schedule, going up against UTEP, Kent State and Nebraska. However, I'm not so sure Kansas State is a massive step up offensively.
Oklahoma is going to be a tad thin up front this season. The Sooners lost three starters from last year's defensive line that was 15th in Defensive Line Yards and 16th in Stuff Rate.
However, they had to improve from ranking 74th in Finishing Drives Allowed in 2021, and Venables has them set up to do so.
Oklahoma has four of its top five linebackers returning from last season, and already you see Oklahoma down to 18th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
However, it is a small sample size against two cupcakes and Nebraska. This will be the best rushing attack the Sooners have faced this season.
Oklahoma struggled in the secondary in 2021, ranking 87th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
This year, the Sooners return both starting corners and brought in two experienced safeties through the transfer portal to round out a solid looking unit for Venables.
They should have no trouble keeping Martinez in check.
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and Oklahoma match up statistically:
Kansas State Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Oklahoma Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||106||64|
|Seconds per Play||28.8 (110)||21.5 (8)|
|Rush Rate||65.0% (13)||61.2% (21)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma Betting Pick
The Wildcats play at a really slow pace of 2.14 plays per minute, which is 105th in the country. I expect them to try to slow things down because the worst thing they could do is get into an offensive matchup with the Sooners.
This Kansas State defense is the best that Gabriel has seen this season, so I don't expect him, Mims and Gray to put up the gaudy numbers we've seen so far this year.
On the flip side, I do not see how this Kansas State offense moves the ball effectively given what we've seen through three games from Venables' defense.
I only have 46.6 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 53.5 points, which is currently available at BetMGM.