Memphis vs. East Carolina Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Tigers Keep It Close?
Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Memphis Tigers
- Memphis and East Carolina take the field in a Saturday night AAC showdown.
- The Pirates are favorites of just under a touchdown, but Dan Keegan sees betting value on the underdog Tigers.
- Check out Keegan's full betting guide for Saturday's AAC showdown below.
Memphis vs. East Carolina Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
An intriguing Group of Five matchup unfolds as the Memphis Tigers take on the East Carolina Pirates. Both teams will need to pick themselves off the mat after tough losses in Week 6.
Memphis allowed four fourth quarter touchdowns to Houston last week in a stunning collapse at home on Friday, and will now have to rebound on the road.
East Carolina got squeezed by a tough Tulane team in a matchup that was close on paper, but dominated by the Green Wave in reality. The Pirates head home and get to face an easier defense, but still a tough opponent.
This is a close game — the teams are SP+ neighbors, checking in at 61st (Memphis) and 62nd overall (East Carolina).
However, ECU has a balanced team, ranking 58th in offense and 54th in defense. Memphis has a big split, sporting the No. 39 offense and the No. 81 defense.
These teams find themselves in a matchup that is extremely tight on paper. Will the game come down to the wire, or turn into a blowout?
Memphis Tigers
The Tigers are off to a 4-2 start thanks to the offense, which is powered by Seth Henigan. The second-year starter is putting up fine numbers — 1,517 passing yards and a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Despite the loss last week, Memphis fans had to be encouraged that Henigan bounced back nicely from two straight poor performances. In wins over Temple and North Texas, he passed for a total of 336 yards on 74 attempts, made zero Big Time Throws and had four Turnover Worthy Plays.
In unsurprising news, Memphis was without the left side of its line in those games, as starting tackle Austin Myers and guard Jonah Gambill were out with injuries. Myers returned last week against Houston and Gambill is considered day-to-day for this week.
If quarterback protection was previously a problem for Memphis, it likely won’t be a factor this week with Myers and potentially Gambill returning. The Tigers are also facing an ECU pass rush that ranks 129th in PFF grading.
Memphis’ defense is better against the run — 23rd in EPA vs. 75th against the pass — thanks to linebackers Xavier Cullens and Cormontae Hamilton.
The ball can be moved through the air against Memphis in a dink-and-dunk fashion. The Tigers rank 48th in preventing explosive passes, but 109th in Success Rate Allowed through the air.
Memphis has one stark advantage in this game: it has an excellent special teams unit, which is 10th in the country in SP+.
East Carolina’s special teams are 127th.
East Carolina Pirates
This Pirates' outfit has been difficult to make out. Mike Houston has struggled to find consistency in his tenure at Greenville, countering impressive performances with duds. His long-time quarterback Holton Ahlers has fit that bill, too.
East Carolina played NC State down to the wire, but also lost to a subpar Navy team in a game that went to overtime. The Pirates blew the doors off against South Florida and Old Dominion, but were uncompetitive against Tulane in a matchup that should have been close on paper.
Ahlers had his worst game of the season against the Green Wave. He compiled 288 yards through the air, but it took him 51 pass attempts to get there and he made no Big Time Throws and two Turnover Worthy Plays.
The question has always been the same for Ahlers in his long career: Which player will we see? If it’s his best version, he’s capable of winning this game against a vulnerable Memphis secondary. If he’s less than sharp, he could give the game away.
The Pirates will also need to adjust their ground attack, as veteran running Rahjai Harris is out for the season. Home-run hitter Keaton Mitchell — one of the fastest players in college football — has been dinged up, as well.
The Pirates greatly prefer to pass the ball and rank 108th in Rush Rate. Against the stronger Memphis run defense, this could be a factor if the Pirates are trying to protect a slim lead in the second half.
The Pirates' defense plays an attacking, boom-or-bust style. The unit ranks ninth in the country in Havoc, but 79th in allowing explosive plays.
It’s hard to have a sustained, quality drive against the Pirates — they rank 11th in ECKEL rate, Parker Fleming’s metric that measures how often teams allow scoring opportunities. But you can hit home runs against them.
Memphis vs. East Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Memphis and East Carolina match up statistically:
Memphis Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 66 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 30 | |
| Pass Success | 47 | 73 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 38 | 129 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 54 | |
| Finishing Drives | 41 | 24 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
East Carolina Offense vs. Memphis Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 63 | 53 | |
| Line Yards | 121 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 71 | 109 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 91 | 76 | |
| Havoc | 53 | 95 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 95 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 42 | 50 |
| PFF Coverage | 74 | 73 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 10 | 127 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.9 (31) | 25.7 (49) |
| Rush Rate | 53.0% (72) | 45.2% (108) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Memphis vs. East Carolina Betting Pick
For the second straight week, these teams are playing in a matchup that is very close on paper.
Both teams rely heavily on star quarterbacks who can be inconsistent.
In a matchup this close, I like the track record of Henigan better when he has his left tackle.
I think Memphis’ run defense is the best defensive unit in this game and the Tigers' special teams also have a decided advantage.
Overall, it’s not an overwhelming advantage, but small edges add up. If I can take the side I prefer and get more than a field goal, sign me up.
Pick: Memphis +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
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