James Madison vs Georgia Southern Odds, Picks | NCAAF Betting Preview

The James Madison Dukes are favored at home in a revenge spot. But remember, they can't win this division, even if they win this showdown.

Last year, the Georgia Southern Eagles handed the Dukes their first loss the season, and they'd love to repeat that unfriendly gesture this year.

James Madison gets a lot of flowers for its defense, and rightfully so, but this is not an Iowa situation. The Dukes have weak spots defensively, and are balanced with a good offense.

Georgia Southern has a quality RPO-driven passing attack, but struggles on defense.

Both teams should be able to score this afternoon. So, what's the best way to bet this under-the-radar Georgia Southern vs. James Madison matchup?

Clay Helton’s triple-option conversion went swimmingly in Statesboro, and one of the early proofs of concept was an explosive 45-38 home win over James Madison.

But Helton and offensive coordinator Bryan Ellis didn’t ever really abandon the option principles — they just modernized them. This RPO-reliant offense features a quality rush attack and a killer quick-strike passing attack.

Quarterback Davis Brin is completing 70% of his passes and has thrown for 1,611 yards and 12 touchdowns. He's tossed seven interceptions, but five of those came in one nightmare afternoon at Wisconsin.

Running backs OJ Arnold and Jalen White have rushed for 530 yards and six scores and are averaging 6.5 yards per carry. However, the Eagles will likely have to find ways to win without their services on Saturday, as James Madison’s ferocious front has erased almost every running game it's played so far.

Enter a deep receiving corps. Four receivers are already over 20 catches and 200 yards on the season. Khaleb Hood, perhaps the best pass catcher in Georgia Southern’s history, leads the group.

The recipe is death by a thousand paper cuts. The Eagles' passing-game metrics are low in Explosiveness (132nd), but they rank 14th in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The offense looks to create high-percentage short throws and challenges defenses to get their slippery receivers on the ground.

This should be a bad matchup for a JMU defense that ranks 123rd in PFF’s tackling grades.

Georgia Southern’s defense is still generous — although, it's improved significantly in one area. New coordinator Brandon Bailey came over from Buffalo, where his Bulls ranked No. 1 in Havoc creation last season.

This year, Georgia Southern ranks 13th in that metric after finishing outside of the top 100 last season.

That is about the extent of the good news for the Eagles and their defense, which ranks 114th in SP+.

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The story of JMU's season has been its Jekyll-and-Hyde play. The team’s run defense is incredible and its passing offense is pretty good, a combination that allows JMU to stake an early lead.

But then the poor rushing offense fails to salt the game away, and the leaky secondary allows the opponent to get back into the game.

Quarterback Jordan McCloud leads this passing offense, which ranks 23rd in explosives and 64th in Success Rate. McCloud sports a 66.8 QBR with 11 touchdowns and only three picks.

His favorite weapon is big-play receiver Reggie Brown, who's averaging over 23 yards per catch.

They will likely get plenty of opportunities to build the lead, but head coach Curt Cignetti has played his second halves notoriously conservative. That means work for Kaelon Black and Ty Son Lawton, who lead a rushing attack that's only 67th in Success Rate.

The Dukes have a good offense — they’ve scored at least 31 points in four of five games — but appear to leave points on the board every week after dominant first halves and sluggish second halves.

If that formula plays out again, Georgia Southern has the kind of efficient passing attack that will quickly narrow the margin and keep this game competitive.

To do so, the Eagles will need to find conversions through the air. Led by nose guard James Carpenter, JMU boasts one of the best run defenses in the country. The Dukes have stoned basically every rushing attack they've faced since joining the FBS, and will probably do so again on Saturday.

However, they've been let down by poor tackling in the secondary. JMU's pass defense ranks 127th in explosive plays allowed, and that jumps off the page when watching this team.

This formula has made for thrilling first halves and white-knuckle second halves.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Southern and James Madison match up statistically:

Georgia Southern Offense vs. James Madison Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	11	1
Line Yards	11	2
Pass Success	14	65
Havoc	24	1
Finishing Drives	66	40
Quality Drives	12	24

James Madison Offense vs. Georgia Southern Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	110	86
Line Yards	116	87
Pass Success	24	53
Havoc	99	16
Finishing Drives	106	94
Quality Drives	102	23

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	33	123
PFF Coverage	90	62
Special Teams SP+	64	29
Middle 8	11	49
Seconds per Play	24.8 (28)	27.4 (78)
Rush Rate	35.9% (132)	58.8% (26)

Just like last year’s humdinger — which Georgia Southern won 45-38 — I expect another points-filled matchup.

Both teams have new quarterbacks, but many of the big-play skill position players are still in place.

James Madison will be able to score on Georgia Southern’s forgiving defense, and Georgia Southern will move the ball through James Madison’s porous secondary – even if it doesn't find any room on the ground.

I’ll take the over at 58.5, and I would play it to 61.