NCAAF Odds, Picks for Purdue vs. Iowa

If you're looking for some good old-fashioned Big Ten football, well, look no further. The 4-1 Iowa Hawkeyes are set to host the 2-3 Purdue Boilermakers.

The Hawkeyes are a team that embraces the grind on each side of the ball. They'll need to reinvent themselves a bit as they've lost starting quarterback Cade McNamara for the season.

This matchup will also be a challenge for the Boilermakers as they go up against the Iowa defense. Texas transfer Hudson Card has led them to a 2-3 record, but the Hawkeyes will be the tallest task yet.

Can the Hawkeyes rally around their new quarterback? Or will the Boilermakers run through Iowa City with a victory? Let's dive in and find out the betting pick for Purdue vs. Iowa.

The Boilermakers have deployed a very balanced attack offensively, but they may have to embrace the grind in this matchup. The Hawkeyes' secondary is elite, ranking second in PFF's coverage grading and second in yards per pass allowed.

So, for Purdue, this game will be in the hands of Devin Mockobee and Tyrone Tracy Jr. Tracy has been the far more efficient member of the running back duo (averaging 6.3 yards per carry), but he's seen 21 fewer carries.

While running it may be their best option, it won't be easy, as the Hawkeyes' defense is 51st in Rushing Success Rate.

On top of this, the Boilermakers will only have a slight edge up front, as they outrank Iowa in Line Yards 60 to 71.

The Hawkeyes are far from an offensive juggernaut. They come into this matchup 131st in yards per game and 86th in points per game.

Now they'll have to turn over a struggling offense to sophomore Deacon Hill.

Hill is very inexperienced and hasn't looked great in a limited sample size this season. However, if the Hawkeyes are willing to open up the offense, we could see Hill make plays.

According to PFF, the Boilermakers are 107th in coverage grading and 122nd in tackling. This defense is far from technically sound, so if the Hawkeyes can simplify the offense and the offensive line can get a push up front, they should be able to move the ball consistently.

It will likely start on the ground with Leshon Williams. Williams has taken over the backfield with injuries piling up and has had success. He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has the second-longest rush on the team.

We should see him have a bigger role with Hill's inexperience, and he could carry the Hawkeyes in this matchup.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Iowa match up statistically:

Purdue Offense vs. Iowa Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	76	51
Line Yards	60	71
Pass Success	52	30
Havoc	83	122
Finishing Drives	101	26
Quality Drives	42	28

Iowa Offense vs. Purdue Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	122	85
Line Yards	126	45
Pass Success	129	79
Havoc	120	59
Finishing Drives	109	110
Quality Drives	126	100

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	122	15
PFF Coverage	107	2
Special Teams SP+	93	3
Middle 8	116	72
Seconds per Play	25.2 (34)	28.9 (103)
Rush Rate	51.4% (74)	54.9% (55)

We saw the futility of the Iowa offense in its matchup against Penn State, and the Hawkeyes will have the potential for more growing pains in this game.

However, this is a matchup where their defense will keep them in the game and may even help them on the scoreboard.

Let's not forget that Iowa possesses elite special teams and can help its offense by controlling the field position.

Back the Hawkeyes to get the job done at home.