Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Red Raiders

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Red Raiders article feature image

Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images. Pictured: Donovan Smith (Texas Tech)

  • The Texas Tech Red Raiders meet the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Saturday afternoon college football action.
  • The Cowboys have had a tremendous start to the season and enter as 9.5-point favorites, according to updated odds.
  • Kyle Remillard breaks down Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State below and shares his top betting pick based on his analysis.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Odds

Saturday, Oct. 8
3:30 p.m. ET
Texas Tech Odds
-110o / -110u
Oklahoma State Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Texas Tech continues its grueling schedule as it matches up against its fifth straight ranked opponent in Oklahoma State

Texas Tech has split those games so far by defeating Houston and Texas at home by three points each. Both losses came on the road by double digits against NC State and Kansas State.

Oklahoma State looks to remain perfect, having won all four of its matchups this season by double figures. The Cowboys are fresh off of an 11-point road victory over Baylor, as they got revenge for their Big 12 Championship loss last season.

Oklahoma State owns one of the top offenses in the country, averaging just shy of 50 points per game. However, the Cowboys' pass defense has been suspect, allowing half of their opponents to throw for over 345 yards.

This matchup in Stillwater could come down to who has the ball last.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech has had one of the most difficult schedules of any team in the country to date, and the results of those matchups have come down to the dependability of quarterback Donovan Smith.

The sophomore quarterback out of Las Vegas is putting up just shy of 300 yards per game. He's also averaging 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 50 pass attempts per game over his last four contests.

The victory over Texas two weeks ago came because Smith took care of the football and remained turnover free. However, he tossed four costly interceptions in the losses to NC State and Kansas State.

Smith will need to prevent any turnovers to avoid giving the high-powered Oklahoma State offense more possessions.

Despite the brutal schedule in the first month of the season, the Texas Tech defense has remained strong. The group is allowing 4.2 yards per carry and ranks 19th in Rushing Success Rate.

Slowing down opposing quarterback Spencer Sanders will be crucial, and the Red Raiders have a chance of doing so, as they rank 22nd in Success Rate against the pass.

Senior linebacker Tyree Wilson has accumulated five sacks on the season to lead the team. The Red Raiders rank 13th in the country in PFF Pass Rush Grade and will need to pressure Sanders in this matchup.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

The 2021 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year hasn’t missed a beat from last season, as Sanders is spearheading one of the elite offenses in the country.

The redshirt senior is completing 66% of his passes and averaging 8.8 yards per attempt, as the Cowboys have scored 34 points or more in all four games. Turnovers have haunted Sanders in the past, but he’s tossed 11 touchdowns with only two interceptions on the season.  

The Cowboys own a Rush Rate of 51% and have been efficient on such plays. The four leading ball carriers are all averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry and have punched in eight total touchdowns. However, the group ranks just 93rd in the country in Rushing Success Rate.

The Oklahoma State defense was the main question mark entering the season with Jim Knowles jumping ship to Ohio State.

After also losing three key defensive players to the NFL — including Malcolm Rodriguez — there was appropriate cause for concern.

The group allowed 44 points in the opener to Central Michigan, but it's since settled down by holding its last three opponents to an average of 16 points per game.

The main concern with this unit is a secondary that allowed Central Michigan and Baylor to pass for a combined 769 yards.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and Oklahoma State match up statistically:

Texas Tech Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
Rush Success4847
Line Yards824
Pass Success4561
Pass Blocking**10248
Finishing Drives8355
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Oklahoma State Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
Rush Success9319
Line Yards8344
Pass Success2822
Pass Blocking**7313
Finishing Drives561
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling2459
PFF Coverage10191
SP+ Special Teams8515
Seconds per Play21.9 (9)21.4 (6)
Rush Rate42.2% (122)50.7% (86)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Betting Pick

Oklahoma State hasn’t been tested the same way that Texas Tech has. We saw the Red Raiders remain competitive against a schedule full of elite teams such as NC State, Texas, Kansas State and Houston.

Meanwhile, it’s been smooth sailing for the Cowboys, who have only faced one competitive opponent in Baylor.

This matchup appears to be reminiscent of the high-powered offenses that led the conference just a few years ago. Both teams rank among the top 10 in Seconds Per Play, and it should be an up-tempo game. Texas Tech ranks 122nd in Rush Rate and Oklahoma State isn’t far behind at 88th.

A case could very easily be made for the over in this matchup, but the number has jumped to 70, and that is a bit too high for my liking.

Instead, I'll be eyeing Texas Tech in this Big 12 matchup.

The Red Raiders will air it out and put pressure on a secondary that has not been tested yet. As long as Smith takes care of the football, the Red Raiders could score their second Big 12 upset of the season.  

Pick: Texas Tech +9.5 (Play to +8)

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