USF vs. Cincinnati Betting Odds & Picks: Fade the Bulls Offense
Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Gerry Bohanon (USF)
USF vs. Cincinnati Odds
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +1400 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -5000 |
USF heads to Cincinnati for each team’s second league game.
The Bulls have had a tough go of it in 2022. The passing game — with Baylor transfer Gerry Bohanon at quarterback — has yet to click, although he has helped open things up on the ground.
Overall, the Bulls are 1-4 with no FBS wins.
Cincinnati is rebounding from the best team in school history. The Bearcats dropped their opener to Arkansas (in a game you probably watched a lot of), but they have been consistently winning in a bunch of games you probably haven’t watched.
Last year’s stars are gone, but the 2022 Anonymous Bearcats have been quietly excellent.
South Florida Bulls
The Jeff Scott era has not been kind to the USF Bulls. Nearing the midway point of his third season, Scott has only one win over an FBS program (Temple last season).
The Bulls rank 104th in SP+ this season and are coming off of a 48-28 loss to ECU that wasn’t as close as the score indicates — it was 41-7 at halftime.
Scott handed the quarterback job to Bohanan this fall and the results have been poor. Bohanan authors an offense that is 125th in passing EPA. He has thrown six touchdowns to nine interceptions and was benched briefly in a Week 4 loss to Louisville.
This is one of the most toothless passing attacks in all of FBS, coming in at 108th in pass efficiency in Beta_Rank. The Bulls are 114th in explosive plays when passing and 97th in Success Rate through the air.
Bohanon has helped the one competent area for the offense, which is the ground game. The rushing attacking is 68th in Beta_Rank and is actually No. 1 in explosive runs. It is feast or famine on the ground, though, as they are only 57th in Success Rate on runs.
Bohanon has been dynamic on designed runs, contributing 208 yards on the ground through called plays. He is not a threat to scramble, with only 22 yards on the ground in that fashion.
Bohanon’s presence opens up lanes for running back Brian Battie, who is a big play threat at 7.7 yards per carry.
The defense has been accommodating to opposing offenses. FBS programs are averaging 42.5 points in four games against USF this year. The Bulls rank 128th in Beta_Rank and they are equal opportunity givers — 125th against the pass and 125th against the rush.
This is a stop unit that does very little stopping.
Cincinnati Bearcats
The stars of last season’s playoff team have departed to the NFL, but Luke Fickell has built a quality program here, and this year’s team is no different.
The passing attack isn’t as strong as last season with Desmond Ridder, but Ben Bryant has stepped into the quarterback role and leads a well-balanced attack.
Bryant had a tough day in the opener against Arkansas, missing a handful of downfield throws that could have changed the course of the game. But he has bounced back well, with efficient performances across the four-game winning streak.
The rushing attack is made up of a two-headed monster backfield of Charles McClelland (5.9 yards per carry) and Corey Kiner (4.9 ypc). The Bearcats are very balanced and efficient (13th in Success Rate when rushing and 29th in Success Rate when passing).
Fickell is a defense-oriented coach, and he once again has a strong unit on that side of the ball. His defense is 17th in SP+ and 20th in Success Rate.
The Bearcats are particularly strong at preventing teams from running successfully, as they sport the No. 15th rush defense in preventing successful plays.
One of the biggest mismatches in the game will be Cincinnati creating negative plays when USF has the ball. The Bulls rank 75th in allowing Havoc and Cincinnati is top-10 (seventh) in creating it.
One of the key authors of that Havoc is budding star Ivan Pace Jr. The linebacker, who transferred from Miami (OH), leads the nation in tackles for loss (13.5) and is second in sacks (six).
Expect a big game from Pace against a team that has trouble protecting the ball.
USF vs. Cincinnati Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USF and Cincinnati match up statistically:
USF Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 26 | 3 | |
| Line Yards | 30 | 23 | |
| Pass Success | 130 | 14 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 21 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 85 | 41 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Cincinnati Offense vs. USF Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 98 | 78 | |
| Line Yards | 69 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 39 | 97 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 87 | 126 | |
| Havoc | 84 | 80 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 68 | 99 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 60 | 36 |
| PFF Coverage | 70 | 81 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 45 | 73 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.1 (81) | 25.5 (37) |
| Rush Rate | 54.6% (59) | 48.5% (94) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
USF vs. Cincinnati Betting Pick
This game is a mismatch, without a doubt. Cincinnati should cruise to a comfortable win at home. But let’s avoid the full game spread; the number is -27.5 and that just screams backdoor cover to me.
I think back to the few things USF does well, and the things it does poorly, and note how those align with the Bearcats.
Cincinnati’s offense has balance and efficiency with the run and the pass. The Bearcats will be able to move the chains consistently and will control the ball against an overmatched Bulls defense.
When USF has the ball, it does a poor job protecting it, and Cincy’s top-10 Havoc defense should be able to feast — whether that’s takeaways or putting USF in unfavorable, drive-killing down and distances.
And what about USF’s ability to hit explosive runs? Stopping big runs is a strength of the Bearcats, as they sit 34th in preventing big plays on the ground.
Let’s avoid the large spread and bet against USF’s offense vs. a tough Bearcats defense. I’ll take USF under the team total 15.5 at DraftKings.
Pick: USF Team Total Under 15.5 (Play to 14.5)
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