West Virginia vs Iowa State Odds, Prediction: Can Clones Cover at Home?
Photo by Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Johnson Jr. (Iowa State)
West Virginia vs Iowa State Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 50 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 50 -110o / -110u | -260 |
The two bottom feeders in the Big 12 match up in hopes of ending their respective losing streaks.
West Virginia is just 1-4 in conference play, with all its losses coming by double-digits. The program was destroyed by Texas Tech two weeks ago, but hung tough with TCU last week.
The defense has been abysmal this year, giving up 38 points or more in all five of its Big 12 games this season.
Now the Mountaineers will match up against an Iowa State program that has exceeded 24 points only once this season.
The Cyclones have opposite strengths and weaknesses compared West Virginia, as they feature a stout defense and an offense that is averaging only 16 points against Big 12 competition.
Iowa State is 0-5 against its conference foes and will look to finally have its offense wake up to find its first Big 12 victory of the season.
West Virginia Mountaineers
The West Virginia faithful are beginning to wonder how much more of a leash they can give Neal Brown. In his four years with the program, he’s yet to surpass mediocrity, with a lifetime record of 17-20.
That trend has spoiled over into this season, as the Mountaineers are 3-5 with victories coming over Towson, Virginia Tech and Baylor.
The common denominator in all the program's losses this season has been the abysmal play on the defensive side of the ball. The program ranks 124th in the nation in scoring defense — allowing 39 points per game to FBS competition — while letting up 450 yards per game.
The run defense hasn’t been stellar, allowing 4.1 yards per carry. But the secondary has been torched all season, letting up 9.4 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 129th in the country.
Offensively, the Mountaineers have displayed a steady running game through their three running back system. Each of the backs are averaging 4.5 yards per carry while combining for 16 touchdowns.
The aerial attack has been mediocre on the season behind redshirt junior JT Daniels. Daniels is averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt, but has thrown five interceptions over his last three games.
He hasn’t been able to create explosive plays downfield, as he ranks outside the top 100 in Explosive Passing.
The Cyclones faithful also are dealing with some heartache of their own after a horrid start to conference play.
Iowa State is still in search of its first conference victory as we enter the calendar month of November.
That’s by no fault of the defense, which has carried the program in every game this season.
The Cyclones are holding FBS opponents to just 17 points per game and 300 total yards of offense, both ranking among the top-10 nationally. They’ve been stout against the run, ranking 16th by allowing 3.3 yards per carry.
But the offense has been a horror show through the first two months of the season.
The program is unable to get any push up front, causing the running game to be non-existent. The Cyclones rank 121st nationally with just 2.9 yards per carry.
The lack of a run game has certainly had an effect on quarterback Hunter Dekkers. The redshirt sophomore has begun forcing throws, and that ultimately doomed the Cyclones last week. Dekkers threw three interceptions, two late in the fourth quarter, which put the game out of reach.
Dekkers is completing 67% of his passes this season, and has thrown 14 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. But he’s carried the grunt of the offense — averaging 40 passing attempts per game — because of the lack of rushing attack.
West Virginia vs Iowa State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Iowa State match up statistically:
West Virginia Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 44 | 60 | |
| Line Yards | 41 | 43 |  |
| Pass Success | 37 | 72 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 40 | 80 | |
| Havoc | 18 | 68 | |
| Finishing Drives | 31 | 5 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Iowa State Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 119 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 124 | 80 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 109 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 88 | 102 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 93 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 34 | 93 |
| PFF Coverage | 123 | 60 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 42 | 104 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.6 (48) | 26.4 (69) |
| Rush Rate | 48.5% (96) | 42.9% (122) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
West Virginia vs Iowa State Betting Pick
This is a matchup between two opposite playing styles in which somethings gotta give.
The Mountaineers' defense has been a train wreck this season that can’t seem to get off the field. It’s allowing 6.6 yards per play to FBS opponents, which ranks 121st in the nation.
But can Iowa State take advantage of this, as its offense is only averaging 4.8 yards per play (102nd in the country)?
My answer is yes, this is finally the week that the offense can find a groove. If the run game finds success, then it will take some of the workload from Dekkers.
The Cyclones' defense has had a grueling five-game schedule against high-powered offenses. The group has held its five conference foes to an average of 17 points and 200 yards of total offense.
Iowa State has outgained its opponents in six of its eight games this season. That includes Texas and Oklahoma the last two weeks.
This is the perfect opportunity to finally convert that yardage into points against a lackluster West Virginia defense.
Pick: Iowa State -7 |
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