College Football Player Props: 3 Top Picks for Kansas State’s Adrian Martinez & More
Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Northwestern running back Evan Hull.
- College football's Week 5 rolls on with a full slate on Saturday.
- With a plethora of games across the board that means there's plenty of value from a player prop perspective.
- Our staff has three selections below, so dive in now.
There's nothing better than a college football Saturday with wall-to-wall action. But there is something that makes it even better — betting player props.
With a monster Saturday schedule ahead, there are plenty of player props holding betting value. Our staff likes the prospect of betting two Kansas State Wildcats, while our other expert keeps the purple theme going with Northwestern's Evan Hull.
Check out all three of our top player props for Saturday's Week five college football slate below.
College Football Player Props for Week 5
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from Saturday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texas Tech vs. Kansas State
 12 p.m. ET Saturday, Oct. 1 ESPN+  |
QB Adrian Martinez Passing Yards
By Cody Goggin
We all saw Adrian Martinez have a monster game on a national stage last weekend against Oklahoma. Did Kansas State finally figure out how to make Martinez work in its offense, or was this just a one-off performance?
Oklahoma’s defense currently ranks 76th in the country in Success Rate against the pass.
Looking at the other two FBS opponents that Kansas State has played this year, Tulane ranks 43rd in Success Rate against the pass and Missouri surprisingly ranks 18th. In these two games, Martinez threw for 150 and 101 yards, respectively, despite having 51 pass attempts combined.
This Wildcats offense wants to establish the run early and often. It ranks 119th out of 131 teams in Passing Play Rate, as rush plays have made up 62% of the unit’s offensive calls.
Texas Tech’s defense ranks third in the entire country in Success Rate against the pass. Multiple quarterbacks this season have already had much more trouble passing against Texas Tech than they usually would.
North Carolina State standout Devin Leary was only able to throw for 120 yards on 23 attempts against this secondary. Texas’ Hudson Card and Houston’s Clayton Tune were both able to go over this number, but those offenses are much more effective through the air and have higher passing volumes than Kansas State’s does.
This Texas Tech defense is legitimately good and should give the Wildcats a lot of trouble this weekend.
While I could be completely wrong, I don’t believe that Martinez truly turned a corner last week, and I see him reverting to what he has been earlier this year.
Pick: Adrian Martinez Under 211.5 Passing Yards · Play to 199.5
Texas Tech vs. Kansas State
12 p.m. ET Saturday, Oct. 1 ESPN+ |
WR Malik Knowles Receiving Yards
Knowles is a big buy for me in the player prop market in Week 5, as he’s become more involved in the offense lately.
He’s the team leader in catches (14) and receiving yards (149) this season.
Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman tends to operate at a slower pace – his team ran just 58.2 plays per game in 2021 – which oftentimes diminishes the value of wide receiver production.
However, Klieman admitted last week after the Oklahoma game that the offense had to play faster.
And the uptick in tempo worked.
The Wildcats hung 41 points on 503 total yards across 83 total plays en route to upsetting the Sooners. Knowles put up a solid stat line of 4-52-1.
If Kleiman went fast to keep pace with Oklahoma, the script should remain the same in Week 5, as Texas Tech’s offense leads the nation in plays per game.
I love the matchup for Knowles, who draws a secondary allowing 12.5 yards per completion.
It’s a number that feels short by close to 10 yards, but I’ll split the difference and recommend over bettors play 44.5 or better.
Pick: Malik Knowles Over 39.5 Receiving Yards · Play to 44.5
Northwestern vs. Penn State
 3:30 ET Saturday, Oct. 1 ESPN  |
RB Evan Hull Receiving Yards
Low totals like this always boil down to opportunity. How many targets can Hull expect against Penn State?
The first element is game flow. Penn State is a huge favorite, which indicates that Northwestern will be playing from behind most of the game. That means lots of passing for the Wildcats.
The next factor to consider is previous performance. Hull has exceeded this total in three of his four games this season.
And the final element is how often has the Northwestern staff targeted Hull. Through four games, he’s been targeting a whopping 35 times – the most of any running back in the entire country.
And just to put a bow on things, Penn State has allowed two running backs to exceed this number against it this season: Auburn’s Tank Bigsby and Ohio’s Sieh Bangura.
For all of these reasons, Hull over 25.5 is my top play of the weekend.
Pick: Evan Hull Over 25.5 Receiving Yards · Play to 29.5
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