Memphis vs North Texas Picks, Prediction: Tigers to Dominate
Via Rick Ulreich/Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Watson (Memphis)
Memphis vs North Texas Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 68.5 -115o / -105u | -275 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 68.5 -115o / -105u | +220 |
Two of the top offenses in the AAC clash as Memphis travels to North Texas.
Memphis enters this game with a 5-2 record and is coming off of a road win over UAB. The Tigers are 2-4-1 against the spread and have gone over the total in five games this season.
North Texas enters with a 3-4 record off of a road loss to Tulane. The Mean Green are 4-3 against the spread and have gone over the total in four games this season, but they have gone under the total in their last three games.
Wind could be a factor in the game, as crosswinds will be around 10 miles per hour with temperatures around 70 degrees.
Find a betting prediction, pick and preview for Memphis vs. North Texas on Saturday, October 28 below.
Ryan Silverfield's team is still competing for the top spot in the American Athletic Conference with a 2-1 conference record.
The Tigers average 35.6 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. The offense has a 46% Success Rate and scores an average of 4.88 points per opportunity, which ranks an impressive 11th in the nation.
Memphis averages 35.4 pass attempts per game and 266.4 passing yards per game. Quarterback Seth Henigan is completing 66.3% of his passes for an average of 7.5 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
As a team, Memphis has a 47% Passing Success Rate, which is a solid 35th nationally.
The Tigers average 34.4 rush attempts and 149.7 rushing yards per game, as Blake Watson leads the team with has 593 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.
The offensive line generates 3.1 Line Yards per attempt (69th nationally) and allows a 15.5% Stuff Rate. As a team, Memphis has a 46% Rushing Success Rate (44th nationally). Expect Memphis to continue having success rushing the ball against a poor North Texas rushing defense.
The defense has allowed an average of 22.7 points per game and 5.6 yards per play. It allows a 39% Success Rate and generates Havoc on 19% of plays, the 17th-best rate in the country. The Tigers' defense is about average (69th in the country) in Finishing Drives, as opponents have scored 3.62 points per opportunity.
The pass defense is the clear strength, as the unit's 36% Passing Success Rate Allowed ranks 15th nationally.
Head coach Eric Morris has had a rollercoaster first season at North Texas through seven games.
The Mean Green offense has been solid, as it's averaged 34.6 points per game and 6.4 yards per play. The offense has excelled in Finishing Drives, as it's 22nd in the country with 4.59 points per opportunity and also has a 44% Success Rate.
North Texas averages 37.1 pass attempts per game and 290.9 passing yards per game. Quarterback Chandler Rogers has completed 65% of his passes for an average of 8.0 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and just one interception.
As a team, North Texas has a 45% Passing Success Rate, which ranks 46th nationally.
The Mean Green offense has a balanced rush attack with four players over 35 rush attempts and 150 rushing yards. Ayo Adeyi leads the team with 501 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
The offensive line has been solid, as it ranks 34th in the country by generating 3.3 Line Yards per attempt with a 16.8% Stuff Rate.
While the offense has been strong for the Mean Green, their defense is one of the worst in the nation, as it's given up 35.4 points per game and 6.2 yards per play. The defense generates almost no Havoc, as it ranks 128th nationally and struggles against both the pass (88th in Pass Success Rate Allowed) and the run (129th in Rush Success Rate Allowed).
Opposing offenses have consistently moved the ball against North Texas, which ranks 119th in Quality Drives Allowed.
To make matters worse, opponents have also consistently cashed in on those Quality Drives, as the Mean Green rank 123rd in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Memphis and North Texas match up statistically:
Memphis Offense vs. North Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 44 | 129 | |
| Line Yards | 69 | 123 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 88 | |
| Havoc | 72 | 128 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 123 | |
| Quality Drives | 78 | 119 |
North Texas Offense vs. Memphis Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 51 | 84 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 78 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 9 | |
| Havoc | 71 | 17 | |
| Finishing Drives | 22 | 69 | |
| Quality Drives | 58 | 32 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 131 | 84 |
| PFF Coverage | 54 | 68 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 61 | 31 |
| Middle 8 | 25 | 105 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.7 (64) | 23.4 (10) |
| Rush Rate | 49.3% (95) | 49.7% (102) |
Memphis vs North Texas
Betting Pick & Prediction
Memphis sits as a 7.5-point favorite, as the line has wavered between -6.5 and -8. Most of the money and bets are on the underdog, and according to PRO Report, sharp money has been tracked in favor of North Texas.
The total has been on the rise after opening at 68, as sharp money has been tracked on the over and the line has moved up to 69.5. This is supported by 84% of the money on the over.
I project this total at 73, but the total increasing to 69.5 and potential crosswinds on Saturday have made me back away from betting the over.
Instead, I like betting Memphis to cover 7.5 points or better, as the Tigers have significant advantages across the board on offense against the lifeless Mean Green defense.
The Tigers' defense, which ranks among the top 20 in the nation in generating Havoc and Pass Success Rate Allowed, should force enough stops to win by multiple possessions.
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