NCAAF Odds, Picks for Washington State vs. Arizona State

Washington State hits the road to face Arizona State in a Pac-12 game where both teams need a win to get their seasons on track.

The Cougars opened with four straight victories before dropping three straight entering this one. They're 1-3 in conference play.

Meanwhile, the Sun Devils have dropped every game since their opener, owning a 1-6 record on the year.

I expect two hungry teams in this matchup, and I think this game ends closer than the oddsmakers project it.

In his first season with the program, everything was going right for coach Jake Dickert. Wazzu started the year with wins over two nationally-ranked opponents in Wisconsin and Oregon State, alongside dominant victories over Colorado State and Northern Colorado.

Then, Dickert's squad had a bye week when they were peaking. Since that week off, things haven't been the same.

One can understand road losses to UCLA and Oregon. You can't explain away a 38-point defeat at home to Arizona.

Despite everything, the Cougars still boast a high-flying offense that ranks second nationally in passing yards. The unit is led by quarterback Cameron Ward, who's sixth nationally among passers with 335.4 yards per game.

If Dickert can turn things around, it can motivate the rest of the team to raise their play in a bowl-game push.

Head coach Kenny Dillingham has to wonder what it will take to secure his first conference victory with the program.

Dillingham’s team has been so close over the last three weeks, losing all three by a combined 14 points. That includes holding No. 5 Washington without an offensive touchdown a week ago in another close defeat.

Despite the close losses, the defensive improvements are encouraging. Over the past four weeks, the Sun Devils rank among the top-10 Power 5 programs in Explosiveness allowed and Havoc generated.

Considering it posted these marks against some solid offenses like Colorado and Washington, Arizona State's defense looks even better.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington State and Arizona State match up statistically:

Washington State Offense vs. Arizona State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	45	70
Line Yards	124	109
Pass Success	42	39
Havoc	76	89
Finishing Drives	60	87
Quality Drives	56	104

Arizona State Offense vs. Washington State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	64	104
Line Yards	73	83
Pass Success	125	67
Havoc	111	58
Finishing Drives	127	99
Quality Drives	105	105

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	89	41
PFF Coverage	63	97
Special Teams SP+	16	113
Middle 8	30	88
Seconds per Play	25.4 (45)	26.2 (56)
Rush Rate	41.8% (127)	43.9% (121)

Despite the differing records, I don't see a big difference between these two teams. So, I'm betting Arizona State keeps it close at home, covering the six-point spread.

The big question will be whether the Sun Devils can stop the Cougars passing attack. I think they can, as Arizona State enters this matchup ranked 39th in Pass Success Rate Allowed.

Meanwhile, this Washington State offense still ranks just 60th in Finishing Drives, which is vital when trying to cover as a road favorite. The Cougars rank among the bottom 20 Power 5 programs in that metric over the past four weeks.

On the other side of the ball, the Cougars defense has struggled to stuff the run all year. Arizona State doesn’t have the best ground attack, but it should do enough to keep the defense off the field.

ASU has either covered or pushed in the four straight. I'm betting on more of the same here.