Baylor vs Cincinnati Odds, Picks: Target This Big 12 Total
Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Emory Jones (Cincinnati)
Baylor vs Cincinnati Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
The Cincinnati Bearcats have had a rough go of it thus far in their inaugural season in the Big 12. We successfully faded them last week against Iowa State, which marked their fourth consecutive loss.
Surprisingly, they are favorites yet again this week as they play host to the Baylor Bears.
However, the Bears have not shown us much to be inspired about, as they enter this matchup 2-4 on the season.
Baylor enters this matchup off a bye, and that might have been exactly what they needed to revitalize their season.
So, which side should you be on for this Big 12 showdown? Let's dive in to find out.
When you look at the Bears' offensive production this season, it's almost hard to believe this Baylor program is just a few years removed from a Big 12 Championship game appearance.
The Bears come in averaging just 20 points per game and rank 77th in yards per game.
However, they may have an opportunity to break out against the Bearcats here. Last week, I broke down how the passing game would be effective for the Iowa State Cyclones, and that proved to be the case, as Rocco Becht threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns.
Baylor has the more talented quarterback in Blake Shapen. Shapen missed some time with an early-season injury but has looked solid since returning at the end of September.
The key to Baylor's success will be its offensive line. The Bears' line has struggled mightily, but if it can give Shapen some time, he should have success against a Cincy secondary that ranks 112th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Last week, we saw the first real clunker from Emory Jones in a Cincinnati uniform. However, he faced his toughest matchup yet in Iowa State. He and the rest of the Bearcats' offense will have a much easier time against this Baylor defense.
The Bears haven't been able to stop much of anything thrown at them this season. Baylor is allowing 34.8 points per game and is 108th in yards allowed per game.
The edges are plentiful for Cincy in this matchup. It will be able to control the game with a big push up front, as it outranks Baylor 38 to 110 in Line Yards.
Meanwhile, the Bears are 102nd in Passing Success Rate and 121st in PFF's coverage grading.
So, look for Jones to bounce back and lead this offense up and down the field on multiple occasions.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and Cincinnati match up statistically:
Baylor Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 118 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 98 | 17 | |
| Pass Success | 119 | 112 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 128 | 73 | |
| Quality Drives | 62 | 76 |
Cincinnati Offense vs. Baylor Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 57 | 102 | |
| Line Yards | 38 | 110 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 102 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 65 | 102 | |
| Quality Drives | 55 | 98 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 125 | 46 |
| PFF Coverage | 121 | 133 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 106 | 65 |
| Middle 8 | 89 | 81 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.5 (59) | 25.9 (53) |
| Rush Rate | 48.7% (106) | 57.0% (30) |
Baylor vs Cincinnati
Betting Pick & Prediction
While this is a number that is begging you to fade the Bearcats again, there's an even stronger angle.
Baylor is bound to bounce back offensively off of the bye, but it will need Shapen to be consistent, as there may not be much slowing down the Bearcats' offense.
Take the over and avoid the sweat of backing either side and their struggling secondaries.
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