USF vs UConn Odds & Picks: The Moneyline Bet to Make

USF vs UConn Odds & Picks: The Moneyline Bet to Make article feature image

Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: UConn’s Ta’Quan Roberson.

USF vs UConn Odds

Saturday, Oct. 21
3:30 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
USF Odds
-115o / -105u
UConn Odds
-115o / -105u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Week 8 brings us a nonconference matchup between the UConn Huskies and the South Florida Bulls.

The Huskies are having a down year, sitting at 1-5 after finishing 6-7 last season. The Bulls aren’t having a much better year, as they enter at 3-4 overall. Still, that's a solid mark considering they finished 1-11 last year.

This will be a battle between a team trying to return to some sort of solid football and another trying to build upon a bounce-back season from a year ago.

Where does the value lie between these two teams? Let's dive into the USF vs. UConn odds and make a pick and prediction in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 21

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

South Florida Bulls

After starting the season 3-2 with a close loss to Alabama at home, the Bulls have fallen off big time, losing both of their last two games by 20-plus points to UAB and FAU.

This team’s offensive strength lies on the shoulders of quarterback Byrum Brown. Brown leads the team not only in the passing game with 1,662 yards, but he also paces this USF offense in rushing yards at 512 on 116 carries.

The dual-threat option the Bulls have at quarterback makes them a very difficult team to game plan against. The versatility of Brown has helped this run game rank top-10 in explosiveness this season. That's because of the constant guessing teams have to do when playing them.

Outside of this versatile run offense, USF hasn’t been very good offensively, specifically in the turnovers department. It's recorded 13 turnovers in seven games, so it'll need to improve on that mark moving forward.

South Florida’s defense has definitely been the strength of this team. While the Bulls don't force enough turnovers to keep their team in a positive turnover margin, they can some positives.

The pass defense ranks 45th in Success Rate, which is incredible for a team that finished 1-11 a year ago. The run defense sits at 91st in Success Rate, but this defense causes chaos and ranks 50th overall in Havoc Rate.

The Bulls should be able to force some turnovers in this one, but it may be at the expense of a few big plays given they sit at a poor 131st in defensive explosiveness rating.

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Connecticut Huskies

The Huskies went bowling last year, finishing at 6-7 following a 1-11 season the year prior, but they've had a rough go at it this year.

The UConn offense has left plenty to be desired, averaging 20.5 points per game this season. It will need to make some more plays and maintain some more drives in order to beat the Bulls.

This all starts with quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson taking advantage of what the defense gives him and continuing to move the ball down the field. He currently has a QB rating of 31.8, which is especially bad given his touchdown-to-interception ratio sits at 7:2.

He's starting to figure it out over the last two games with completion percentages over 70%.

That being said, this offense ranks 113th in Success Rate, so Roberson will need to keep improving to help his team pick up a win and keep pushing forward to where they want to be.

The Huskies defense has been worse than its offense thus far, ranking 122nd in Defensive Success Rate. The plus side for this defense is its ability to prevent big plays, as it sits 25th in defensive explosiveness rating.

The key for this defense is its ability to stop the run, where it ranks 69th overall. This will be especially key against a dual-threat quarterback in USF's Brown.

USF vs UConn

Betting Pick & Prediction

While I think both of these teams are pretty even in terms of talent and skill, I think the Huskies will take advantage of their better run defense and slow down the USF run game to make the Bulls beat them through the air.

I do think USF will find some success, but this UConn team is trending in the right direction, while the Bulls have been blown out in their last two.

With that said, I'll take the Huskies here.

Pick: UConn ML +105 (Play to -1)

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