Tuesday night football returns once again in Week 9.
Tonight's slate of college football action features two games in Conference USA: the Kennesaw State Owls vs. the FIU Panthers and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.
Action network writer Joshua "Duck" Nunn broke down both games, so let's take a look at his college football picks and NCAAF best bets for both games on Tuesday, Oct. 21 — and be sure to check back tomorrow for our Wednesday night college football betting coverage.
College Football Picks, Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network writer Joshua Nunn is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kennesaw State vs FIU Pick
This line opened up at Kennesaw State -1.5, and the Owls have been taking a ton of money with bettors riding the hot hand of a team that has won and covered four straight.
The line has moved out to 3.5, and that's where I want to back the Panthers here.
FIU didn't play very well in its recent games that preceded the Western Kentucky contest last week, but the bye week really helped refocus this group. I loved what I saw from the Panthers defense on the road, and the energy and attitude made a huge difference for the stop unit.
This defense will have major advantages when lining up against the Kennesaw State offense.
The Owls rank just 134th in Offensive Success Rate and 120th in Finishing Drives. On the defensive side of the ball, KSU comes in at 68th in Success Rate allowed and 34th in Finishing Drives allowed.
Kennesaw’s offensive line hasn't played particularly well this year, ranking eighth in the conference in pass blocking and 11th in run blocking, per PFF.
I expect the Owls to struggle to run the football here, and the pass game — which ranks 129th in Passing Success Rate — will be stressed to make plays against this FIU secondary.
The Panthers rank 37th nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and 51st in EPA Per Pass allowed. As long as they don’t give up the big play, they should be able to contain the Kennesaw State offense.
FIU quarterback Keyone Jenkins and running back Kejon Owens caught fire last week, and I expect solid performances at home on Tuesday night. Kennesaw State hasn't played a road game since Sept. 6 and is now walking into the buzzsaw that is "Vice Night" in Miami.
FIU will have a ton of energy in the building for its annual fan event, and I expect a rock-solid home performance here.
Kennesaw has played well at home, but I can't lay more than a field goal on the road in this environment. I wouldn't be surprised if FIU wins this game outright.
Pick: FIU +3.5
| |
Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech Pick
The line on this one has bounced between LA Tech -3 and -3.5, with the total set at 50.5. I like the first-half under here at 25.5.
Western Kentucky has gone through plenty of slow starts during the majority of its offensive funk. In fact, this team is scoring just 7.1 points in the first half on average over its last five contests.
The Tops have needed long, methodical drives to move the football and have been in third-down situations quite often this season due to a lack of early down success.
Louisiana Tech ranks seventh nationally in standard down EPA Per Play allowed and 44th in early-down Success Rate allowed. The Bulldogs will make life very difficult for this Western Kentucky offense.
I expect the defense to be locked in here after having some extra time to prep for this one, especially after the embarrassing performance in the second half against Kennesaw State the last time out.
We have uncertainty at quarterback for LA Tech, as both Blake Baker and backup Trey Kukuk are questionable coming in. In all, three signal-callers could end up playing.
The script has to be for LA Tech to run the ball a lot against a WKU front seven that ranks 95th nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 103rd in EPA Per Rush allowed.
I expect conservative play calling from Louisiana Tech, as the turnovers really cost this team last time out. We should see efficient running from the Bulldogs, but I don't see many big plays coming from an offense that ranks 115th nationally in rushing explosiveness.
LA Tech's aerial attack has been as inefficient as can be. The Bulldogs haven't thrown for more than 238 yards in a game this season, and the QBs have just five passing touchdowns.
LT ranks 133rd nationally in Passing Success Rate and 133rd in passing explosiveness. WKU has been strong against the pass this season, allowing just 200 yards per game through the air this season.
On paper, this might seem like a high-scoring affair, and we could see the barrage come in the second half.
However, with how these two fared in their latest contests, I'd expect conservative play-calling and a lack of explosiveness early on both sides.
Pick: 1H Under 24.5 or Better
