Every sports fan needs more MACtion in their life, and that's exactly what we have tonight.
Week 13 marks the penultimate week of MACtion, and we'll get it rolling with a 3-game Tuesday slate that features Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan, Ohio vs. UMass and Bowling Green vs. Akron.
Our college football writers broke down all 3 games and dished out a pick for each.
So, let's dive into our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Tuesday — and be sure to check back tomorrow for our Wednesday night MACtion coverage.
College Football Picks, Predictions, Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of MACtion games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan Pick
By Joshua Nunn
I know everyone loved what they saw from the NIU offense last week when it put up 45 points on UMass, but I'm not buying into it having much success after lighting it up against the worst team in FBS.
I'm going to take the Northern Illinois team total under 16.5.
The Broncos have utilized a lockdown defense that's giving up just 11.5 points per game in league play to fuel the run. Western Michigan has been rock-solid all season, allowing 3.6 yards per carry on the ground and 121 rushing yards per game.
Northern Illinois runs the ball on 65% of its snaps, but it ranks just 125th nationally in Rushing Success Rate. The Huskies have only combined to throw for 1,011 passing yards this season and are not equipped to attack WMU’s secondary.
The Huskies are going to struggle to move the football here. NIU has converted just 32% of third-down attempts this season, and it comes in at 127th in Points Per Scoring Opportunity.
I'm not confident the Huskies have found enough cohesiveness offensively to have success against a competent defense.
Western Michigan ranks 40th nationally in Success Rate allowed and 19th in red-zone scoring. The Broncos can shut down this NIU offense, and we'll see the Huskies look much like they have all season prior to last week.
Offensively, WMU ranks 57th in Rushing Success Rate and should be able to move the football with the duo of Broc Lowry and Jalen Buckley toting the rock.
I fully expect this game to be lower-scoring and for WMU to control the time of possession and play the field-position game in the second half.
This game will be close throughout, but I expect the Western Michigan defense to be the best unit on the field and lock it down in this important conference game.
Pick: Northern Illinois Team Total Under 16.5
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Ohio vs UMass Pick
By John Feltman
If you’re laying over four touchdowns, you need two things to work in your favor: a favorite capable of sustained scoring and an underdog incapable of getting out of its own way. That’s precisely the matchup we have here.
Folks, when I tell you that UMass is bad, it's 50 times worse than that. The Minutemen are winless and got boat-raced last week by a Northern Illinois offense that's among the worst in the entire country.
Let’s start with the UMass offense, which has been one of the least efficient units in the country.
The Minutemen rank 135th nationally in EPA/Pass and 128th in EPA/Rush. They consistently lose early downs, ranking 126th, and face an average of 8.6 yards to go on third downs, coming in at 133rd nationally in that area.
That sets up a perfect scenario for an Ohio defense that's quietly one of the strongest statistical units UMass has faced all year.
The Bobcats rank 36th in EPA/Pass allowed, 71st in early downs EPA allowed and sit top-20 nationally in third- and fourth-down Success Rate allowed at 38.5%.
On the other side, the matchup gets even more brutal for UMass.
Its defense has been unable to stop explosive or efficient offenses all season, ranking 135th in EPA/Pass allowed, 132nd in available yards allowed (59.5%) and 128th in early downs EPA allowed.
That combination is a recipe for giving up scoring drives all evening long, which is the exact thing an underdog can’t afford when trying to cover a 32.5-point spread.
Ohio’s offense isn’t elite, but it's efficient enough to exploit everything UMass struggles with. The Bobcats produce a solid ranking of 61st in EPA/Pass, 47th in EPA/Pass and sustain drives with a 47.4% third-down Success Rate, tied for 30th nationally.
We also need to factor in the quit factor with UMass.
Sitting at 0-10 with no winnable games left on the schedule, how on earth are the Minutemen going to show any pride here? I'm convinced the entire team has already quit.
With Ohio’s defense forcing negative EPA situations through the air and on the ground, plus UMass’ inability to convert third downs, the Bobcats should dominate possession, scoring opportunities and tempo from start to finish.
I couldn't care less how public a play this is — Ohio is the only way to bet this game.
Pick: Ohio -32.5 (Play to -34.5)
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Bowling Green vs Akron Pick
By Road to CFB
Akron opened as a +4.5 underdog on the road this week and was bet down to +3.5. The total has dropped a point at some books after opening at 47.5, but it has mostly stayed put.
Akron’s defense was exposed last week by a pass-heavy Kent State. The signs were there previously (allowing 42 to Ball State, anyone?), but it really came to a head at home in the Wagon Wheel.
Kent State tied its season-high with 42 points (albeit in overtime), a mark only previously achieved against UMass, Sagarin’s 245th-ranked Division-I team.
But to score those 42 points, Kent State needed a passing game. It rushed for just 57 total yards in the effort, with a long of nine yards. It was one-on-one opportunities down the sideline that cost the Zips the game.
Bowling Green doesn't run an offense that features a forward pass.
BG is on to quarterback No. 4 with starter Drew Pyne in and out of the lineup, athletic backup Lucian Anderson III hurt, and QB3 Baron May (of last year’s punt caper fame) done for the season.
Hunter Najm got the start against Eastern Michigan, completing 11-of-15 passes for 129 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Against Buffalo, Najm averaged an average depth of target of 14.4 yards, which resulted in a 36% completion rate. Against Eastern Michigan, that dropped to 5.4 aDOT with nearly an 80% completion rate.
At 5-foot-11 and 190 pounds, the freshman isn’t exhibiting much of a willingness to fire the ball downfield with any sort of confidence.
So, against my better judgment, I’m trusting Akron’s defense for a second straight week.
This is more of a vote of confidence against one of the nation’s most stagnant and hard-to-watch offenses in Bowling Green. With seven losses on the slate and a fourth–string QB at play (Pyne is now dealing with an ankle injury), I just don’t think this team gets much of anything going for a fifth-straight game.
Bowling Green generates a quality drive on fewer than 27% of its drives, the seventh-worst mark in the nation.
Akron is exceptional at getting off the field on late downs, and Bowling Green finds itself in third-and-medium-to-long often (its 7.3 yards to go on third down is among the 40 worst marks in the country).
Win or lose, I don’t expect Bowling Green to hit its best offensive stride in the past five games this time around.
Pick: Bowling Green Team Total Under 25.5
