Week 1 has finally arrived.
Our staff of college football betting experts has waited all Spring and Summer for this moment. Now that it's arrived, they've got 4 College Football Picks, predictions, and Best Bets for the Noon Slate of Week 1 on Saturday, September 5.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 PM | |
  | 12 PM | |
  | 12 PM | |
  | 12:45 PM | |
 | All Day | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Liberty vs. James Madison Best Bet
Nine and a half months ago, James Madison walked into Lynchburg as an 8.5-point favorite, trailing Liberty, 13-10, midway through the third quarter before scoring 21 unanswered.
The Dukes ended up taking the inaugural Battle of the Blue Ridge, 31-13, while outgaining the Flames 440-233. Now, a rematch comes to Harrisonburg during Week 1.
James Madison has a two-man quarterback race between JC Evans and Camden Coleman, with Evans being described as generational. Neither signal-caller has experience, but the Dukes project to have one of the best offensive lines in the Sun Belt.
The balanced play-calling from offensive coordinator Cam Aiken will benefit both quarterbacks, but Liberty's defense has areas that can be attacked.
Liberty's quarterback situation has less clarity after head coach Jamey Chadwell moved the fifth-string signal-caller to tight end.
Deshawn Purdie, Jaylen Henderson, Ethan Vasko and Jachin Davis are all expected to see playing time despite Chadwell’s comments saying that he's looking for more consistency and execution.
The Liberty secondary remains without answers at cornerback, but two safeties from the transfer portal will start in Georgia State’s D-Icey Hopkins and Ball State’s Ashton Whitner.
The defense has many unresolved issues after a poor showing away from home last season. The Flames ended the year with a 1-5 record on the road, giving up 318 points in those six contests.
Pick: James Madison -7 or Better
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North Texas vs. Indiana Best Bet
Indiana’s dominance on defense can't be overstated, as it neutralizes opponents with relentless pressure and suffocating coverage.
While the Hoosiers did give up the occasional big play, per their bottom-20 mark in Explosiveness, they mitigated it by keeping their opponents out of the end zone, mending the majority of the damage.
In a favorable matchup against North Texas, the Hoosiers will be able to consistently flush Jackson out of the pocket by collapsing the middle, lowering the quality of his throws when on the run.
Jackson’s inability to take care of the ball will also be on full display, as the Hoosiers weave the ball through a second level that excels at creating Havoc.
Any early out increases the probability that North Texas stays under its team total, as it fails to field a defense that can get the ball back in its hands quickly. This takes precious time off the clock while also chipping away at the Mean Green's total number of possessions on offense.
While I normally preach how crucial it is to take a key football number, the Mean Green’s inability to get into scoring position will lead to long field goals rather than actual scoring opportunities, making the under 6.5 on their team total worth a wager.
Should a book open North Texas at 7/7.5 later in the week, increase your exposure by placing another bet at the key number.
Pick: North Texas Team Total Under 6.5
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East Carolina vs. Alabama Best Bet
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
This is a Fade System.
CFB Sharp Money Fade in NCAAF Spread tells the story of a regular-season college football matchup where the betting market appears to signal confidence from larger wagers, but that signal has become less reliable in recent years.
When the difference between money share and ticket share grows large, it traditionally implied that influential bettors were backing one side while the public leaned the other way.
But in the modern college football market, information moves quickly, and public participation has grown, creating situations where perceived sharp indicators can actually represent late crowd momentum rather than true professional conviction.
When the number of bets sits in a moderate range, the market has enough activity to shape perception but not enough depth to fully stabilize the price.
In this environment, fading the side attracting the disproportionate money support becomes a contrarian stance that assumes the market has overreacted to what looks like smart action, allowing the opposite team to quietly outperform expectations once the game unfolds on the field.
Teams that fit this system are already 4-0 ATS this season!
Pick: East Carolina +28 or Better
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Kent State vs. South Carolina Best Bet
By Jordan Vanek
The new South Carolina offense is perfect for Nyck Harbor’s skill set, and I expect him to have a massive performance against Kent State.
I wouldn’t mind pushing this to the 100-yard mark because Harbor should become a much bigger deep threat in Kendal Briles’ offense.
South Carolina also lost two wide receivers who were expected to be involved, which should keep Harbor on the field longer in this matchup.
Harbor had just nine targets on go routes last season, per PFF. In comparison, Briles’ offense had Josh Hoover target Eric McAlister and Jordan Dwyer 56 times on go routes.
They’re going to chase explosive plays with Harbor, and against Kent State, those opportunities should come early and often.
Pick: Nyck Harbor Higher Than 58.5 Receiving Yards
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