Week 10 of college football delivered several shocking results set to reshape the playoff standings. The central storyline revolves around Notre Dame’s upset victory over No. 1 Miami Hurricanes, rattling both the AP rankings and prediction market odds.
The flip side to Notre Dame’s triumph is the unfolding nightmare in Columbus: Ohio State suffered its second straight defeat and remains in freefall, now facing serious danger of missing the postseason altogether.
Let’s break down the current Kalshi CFP odds and see what's in store for Week 11.
Notre Dame Stuns No. 1 Miami: How The Playoff Odds Moved
Notre Dame defeated Miami 31–24, sending shockwaves through college football and prediction markets alike. Entering as underdogs against the top-ranked Hurricanes, the Fighting Irish pulled off the major upset of Week 10.
Crucial red-zone stops, relentless front-seven pressure, and a punishing ground attack allowed Notre Dame to control the tempo and withstand Miami’s late rally. The Hurricanes' push fell short, securing a vital victory for the Fighting Irish's playoff hopes.
The significance of the win is clearly reflected on Kalshi's trading board: before and during the game, Notre Dame was trading at 72% implied odds, surging to 95% at the final whistle. The team has since remained near the top of the board, trailing only Georgia at 98% implied odds.
Georgia Takes No. 1 After a 42-7 Rout of Ole Miss
Another major winner from Week 10 was the Georgia Bulldogs. Their crushing victory over the Ole Miss Rebels not only established them as the favorites to qualify for the College Football Playoff on Kalshi, but also earned them the top spot in the AP Poll.
Right now, the Bulldogs are trading at 98% implied odds on Kalshi. For traders, their playoff spot is virtually guaranteed following their Week 10 decisive win.
Before we continue, make sure to grab our Kalshi promo code and download the Action Network App to get the best trading insights across sports, entertainment, and politics. Now, let’s dive into the National Championship odds.
National Championship Odds After Week 10
The National Championship odds market reflects a similar dynamic to that of the Playoff odds. Sitting at the top is Georgia at 29% odds, traders are strongly convinced of their chances thanks to their elite level so far. In second place appears Notre Dame with 18% implied odds and the potential to surge even higher if they extend their winning streak.
Beyond the two frontrunners, the most interesting contracts include Alabama at 12% and Miami at 10%. Although the Hurricanes lost considerable ground following their defeat against Notre Dame, they remain one of the nation's most formidable programs, and traders' overreaction opens a prime opportunity to back them at a discount.
Utah and UCLA Stay Unbeaten: The Big 12 and Big Ten Leaders
Utah and UCLA stand tall as the nation's sole unbeatens programs, each improving to 9–0 to seize command of the Big 12 and Big Ten title races.
Utah cemented its frontrunner status by claiming a gritty 28–20 Holy War victory over perennial rival BYU. Behind quarterback Devon Dampier’s four total touchdowns and a relentless defense that forced four interceptions, the Utes extended their impressive winning streak to 15 games.
Meanwhile, UCLA proved its staying power with a decisive 34–20 road win over Minnesota. Under first-year coach Bob Chesney, the Bruins have paired a tough third-down defense with intelligent offensive execution to mount their best start since 1998.
Both programs are now in prime position to secure a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State Crashes After Second Straight Loss
Ohio State is the protagonist of this season's ultimate horror story. After suffering their second consecutive loss falling 41–28 to the Ducks, the Buckeyes not only dropped out of the top 12 programs currently qualifying for the playoffs, but their odds on Kalshi also plummeted.
After being among the frontrunners for weeks, the Buckeyes are now trading at a 13% implied probability, with a downward trend likely to drag their contract even lower.
What the Second CFP Rankings Could Change
The first CFP rankings offered an initial glimpse, but the second release serves as clear confirmation of which programs are serious contenders and which are heading toward a bitter season.
Without question, the most impactful result of Week 10 was Notre Dame’s victory over former No. 1 Miami. This will undoubtedly be reflected in the second rankings, catapulting the Fighting Irish into the upper echelon after landing at No. 11 just a week ago.
Georgia is set to reclaim the overall No. 1 spot following its 42–7 dismantling of Ole Miss, while undefeated Utah will solidify a top-three seed and the Big 12's ticket to a first-round bye. Fellow unbeaten UCLA, previously slotted at No. 8 due to strength-of-schedule scrutiny, could surge toward the top four.
On the other hand, the publication of the second CFP rankings spells trouble for programs like Ohio State, which will surely tumble down the board. Ole Miss faces a similar predicament, as their blowout defeat puts them in serious jeopardy. This gives programs like Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee the chance to lock down seeded berths without needing conference championship game appearances.
