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The New Mexico State Aggies take on the Sam Houston State Bearkats in Huntsville, Texas. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
New Mexico State is favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -145. The total is set at 44.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston prediction and college football pick for Wednesday, October 21, 2026.
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Prediction
- New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston Pick: Sam Houston Team Total Under 21.5 (-120 or Better)
My Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State best bet is on the Bearkats to stay under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Odds
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -108u | -145 |
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -112 | 44.5 -110o / -108u | +125 |
- New Mexico State vs Sam Houston point spread: New Mexico State -3 (-105), Sam Houston +3 (-112)
- New Mexico State vs Sam Houston over/under: 44.5 (-110o / -108u)
- New Mexico State vs Sam Houston moneyline: New Mexico State -145, Sam Houston +125
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston College Football Preview
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview: Short-Lived Revival
An offense stuck in neutral needed a jump-start. Tony Sanchez and OC David Yost made a change at quarterback, benching a disappointing Trey Hedden for junior Adam Damante, who cleaned up as QB1 at the end of last season.
Initially, Damante provided that spark, leading New Mexico State to a 34-13 win over Western Kentucky. But when faced with a stouter defense in FIU, Damante was useless.
Teams have solved the passing game — take away TK King and watch the game unravel. Last week, King was targeted six times for no receptions.
James Jones has benefitted from playing behind a good offensive line and serious trust from Yost. In three of his six games, Jones picked up over 100 rushing yards; twice more, he gained 75+.
But costly turnovers (third most) have devastated what otherwise could be a ball-control and ground-focused offense. Damante has forced some teams to remain honest rather than loading the box, but it's an offensive blueprint that's easily solvable and rarely puts opposing defenders in conflict.
DC Joe Morris has done a nice job with the other side of the ball. In Year 1, New Mexico State finished 115th in points per drive, and that's improved a noticeable amount.
It may never constitute "great" given that this roster is outmanned several times a year, but it's effective against most CUSA opponents as it stands today.
Just last week, the Aggie defense held FIU to five field goals despite twice starting in their own red zone.
Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview: System Without the Pieces
Phil Longo isn't the answer in Huntsville. Underfunded, undermanned, out-resourced … however you can spin it, Longo is still underperforming.
Outside a miracle season under KC Keeler — a 10-3 campaign that earned him a raise at Temple — wins at Sam Houston State have been scant (6-24 since joining the FBS, 3-15 under Longo). But this coaching staff is still doing less than expected, and an awkward presser didn't do Longo any favors.
The Air Raid system hasn't taken hold because Sam Houston doesn't have the receiving talent or offensive line to effectively run it. It also runs way too slow to overcome those talent deficiencies, running a new snap every 27.5 seconds (94th — 15th slowest in its last three games).
The Bearkats fall down with ball-control offenses like Miami (OH) and Minnesota, but because this unit is so darn ineffective, it just ends up hamstringing the whole operation.
At this juncture, a 10-point deficit is a death sentence.
The result is one of the funniest offensive spider charts in the FBS:
The defense is actually doing its part to keep the Kats in games.
It started off the year holding Troy and Tulsa (a pair of half-capable offenses) to 24 and 23, respectively, and even clamped down Texas Tech's offense — the Red Raiders benefitted from back-to-back pick-sixes but only gained 43% of available yards, and the offense generated only 35 points.
Sam Houston does a nice job defending the pass (14th in EPA Per Dropback!) and creating havoc plays (top-30 in the metric).
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Pick, Betting Analysis
Those who got in on this total early capitalized on a flat-out errant number. After briefly opening at 50.5, the market corrected, betting it down a full touchdown to 44.5. Sam Houston +3 and New Mexico State -2.5 are the buy points.
The cure for the common offense is oftentimes a terrible defense. And during Weeknight CUSA action, we oftentimes get said terrible defense.
But not this game — both units are serviceable for the task at hand.
Just last week, Sam Houston was held to an abysmal 23% of available yards gained against a defense previously ranked outside the top 120 in points per drive. The offense is a depreciating value with an increasingly frustrated coaching staff and, in turn, frustrated fanbase with the coaching staff.
Longo may not make it to Thanksgiving given the team's current trajectory, and it doesn't sound like he's a good fit for Sam Houston.
I'm fully out on this slow-paced and inefficient offense that's 124th in Success Rate and 131st in adjusted EPA Per Play.
Sam Houston won't set a new season scoring benchmark against FBS competition.
Pick: Sam Houston Team Total Under 21.5 (-120 or Better)
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Betting Trends
