Wilson: My Projected Odds for Every Week 3 College Football Game

Wilson: My Projected Odds for Every Week 3 College Football Game article feature image
Credit:

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tyrone Tracy Jr.

  • Collin Wilson uses his betting power ratings to project odds for every Week 3 college football game.
  • Use these projections to find early betting value when lines open on Sunday afternoon.

The big news in this space over Labor Day weekend was Circa Sports in Las Vegas getting college football lines to market first.

And while plenty of operators rushed to get point spreads up, Circa was also first to get game totals on the board before noon local time in Las Vegas, something that typically hasn’t happened until Monday or Tuesday in the past.

So every Sunday morning, The Action Network will provide point spread projections on every game for the following week to find early betting value.

Our projections use the raw numbers from the The Action Network power ratings built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats.

Look here in preparation for opening lines and follow me in The Action Network App when I bet those lines on Sunday afternoon.

Projected College Football Odds, Week 3

A negative number indicates the home team is favored by that many points; positive number means the home team is an underdog.

Week 3 Scheduling Notes

  • Air Force, Iowa State, Navy, Northwestern, TCU and Temple are all off a bye week.
  • Arizona State and Virginia have extra rest.
  • North Texas, Arkansas State, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Stanford and Army will be on back-to-back travel.
  • Southern Miss on back-to-back travel will visit Troy, which is off a bye week
  • Both New Mexico and Notre Dame will be off a bye week.
  • Texas may have a situational sandwich spot against Rice, as the Longhorns come off LSU and have Oklahoma State in Week 4.

Week 3 Injury Notes

  • Both CB Geno Stone and FS Matt Hankins left Iowa’s win over Rutgers with leg injuries. Their status for Iowa State is unknown.
  • South Carolina WR Shi Smith was forced from Saturday’s contest due to a chest injury.
  • Rice QB Wiley Green was carted off the field with an unspecified injury. His status is unknown for Texas.

Week 3 Situation Spots to Play

  • North Carolina and Wake Forest may be the most explosive teams in the nation. These teams square off on Friday night, and I’ll be looking toward the over.
  • Although it is an FCS vs. FBS battle, Wyoming has won two games because of its opponent’s self-inflicted turnovers. Look for Idaho +24 or better.
  • Charlotte topped Appalachian State in total yards and first downs. The 49ers covered comfortably, even after a fluke onside kick that turned into a Mountaineers touchdown. UMass just lost to Southern Illinois, a team that does not receive any votes in the FCS poll. Look for any number south of three touchdowns for Charlotte.
  • The two biggest discrepancies in our projections against the closing line in Week 2 were Pitt and Penn State. Pitt was projected at -12 and closed -4, then beat Ohio by 10. Penn State was projected at -24 and closed -31. Our projection of Pitt +13 will likely be short from where the market ends up, so wait to bet Pitt.
  • Ryan Hilinski filled in admirably for the injured Jake Bentley as quarterback for South Carolina. Hilinski may be considered an upgrade, and should fetch a point spread close to +28 against Alabama.
  • BYU comes off an overtime victory at Tennessee. USC will visit with an air raid attack led by Kedon Slovis, who had massive success against Stanford. The Trojans should be considered at any number better than -3.
  • Maryland has been the most efficient and explosive team in the nation through two games. Temple will be off a bye week with game experience only against Bucknell. Maryland’s speed should garner a first half bet, and a full game at -4 or better.
  • With Army off an overtime loss against Michigan, look for UTSA +24 or better in a game that should move at a snail’s pace.