Wilson: Projecting Week 12 College Football Spreads, and Games I Want to Bet Sunday
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dexter Williams
- Collin Wilson uses his betting power ratings to project point spreads for Week 12 before oddsmakers release them on Sunday.
- Use these to find value before the market moves after opening.
Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 12’s college football matchups.
These numbers are based off my college football betting Power Ratings, which you can find here.
When the real lines come out later on Sunday, I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value before the odds move.
Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.
College Football Week 12 Point Spread Projections
Numbers I’m Looking For
Miami Ohio at Northern Illinois
Projected Spread: Northern Illinois -5.5
Number I Want: Miami Ohio +6 or better
Keep eyes on the Tuesday #MACtion, especially if Ball State somehow finds a way to beat Western Michigan. Northern Illinois is undefeated in the MAC West, with a two-game lead on Western Michigan, so it can clinch the division before this game with a Ball State win. The Huskies may not take Miami Ohio seriously when quarterback Gus Ragland comes to town.
For the first time since 2012, @MiamiOHFootball is victorious in the Battle of the Bricks!
— #MACtion (@MACSports) November 8, 2018
The Redhawks have four wins and must be victorious in the final two (Northern Illinois, Ball State) to make a bowl game. The Huskies are one of the worst offensive teams in the nation at explosiveness and passing S&P+. Look for a Redhawks offense that is clicking, mixed with stingy rush defense, to cover and possibly upset NIU.
TCU at Baylor
Projected Spread: Baylor -1.5
Number I Want: Baylor +1 or better
TCU has checked out, losing six of its past eight games. A one-point loss to Kansas and a one-point win against Kansas State was just the beginning for a physically and emotionally depleted Horned Frogs team. West Virginia had no issues ringing up TCU in Week 11.
— AP Top 25 (@AP_Top25) November 10, 2018
Do not be fooled by Baylor’s loss to Iowa State. The box score tells another story for the Bears, as they out gained the Cyclones by 150 yards but could not convert red zone attempts. Baylor is just one win away from a bowl, so there is plenty of fight in Matt Rhule’s team.
Terrible video of the fight between Iowa State and Baylor pic.twitter.com/AcjhjezPpu
— Yahoo Sports College Football (@YahooSportsCFB) November 10, 2018
Northwestern at Minnesota
Projected Spread: Minnesota +4
Number I Want: Minnesota +3 or better
Northwestern has wrapped up the Big Ten West division, cementing its trip to the Big Ten Championship game against Michigan or Ohio State. In addition to securing a division title, the Wildcats are going bowling after suffering losses earlier in the year to Akron and Duke.
Enter Minnesota, which may have had the most surprising Week 11 of anyone, beating Purdue 41-10. The change in defensive coordinator made all the difference, as the Gophers now sit one win away from a bowl game.
Situational Edges I’m Eyeing
- Ohio State had a convincing victory over Michigan State in Week 11, and should stay in the College Football Playoff discussion. With overlook to Michigan in Week 13, the Buckeyes visit a Maryland team that played with a purpose in a loss to Indiana.
- How motivated will Ole Miss be for a trip to Vanderbilt? The Rebels cannot make the postseason, making the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State in Week 13 their biggest game of the year. If the 4-6 Commodores have any postseason aspirations, they must win against the Rebels.
- Florida State is in jeopardy of snapping its 36-year bowl streak. The Seminoles are hoping Boston College is on hangover after a loss to Clemson, which ended the Eagles’ chances at making the ACC Championship Game.
- Although there will not be lines available on Sunday, there is plenty of FBS and FCS crossover in Week 12. Colgate is undefeated in 2018 and travels to Army. Florida can hit its season win total of 8 against Idaho.
- Toledo, Bowling Green, Georgia State, ULM, Liberty, TCU, FIU, Middle Tennessee, Rice, Ohio State, Northwestern, Tulsa, Kansas, Wisconsin, Ole Miss, and Miami are all on back-to back travel.
- Oregon State is on back-to-back travel against Washington, which is off a bye week. Similarly, UNLV is also on back-to-back travel at the island, as Hawaii is off a bye week.
- New Mexico State, Arizona and Wyoming are coming off a bye week. Both Western Michigan and Ball State face each other off a bye.
A Few Other Week 12 Notes
- Boston College quarterback Anthony Brown left Clemson game after five minutes with an upper body injury. He did not return.
- UAB quarterback AJ Erdely did not play against Southern Miss.
- Recovering from concussion, Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook did not play.