Power Ratings vs. Spreads: Biggest Discrepancies for College Football Week 4

Sep 17, 2018 11:59 AM EDT
  • Collin Wilson highlights the biggest betting line discrepancies between Vegas and The Action Network power ratings.
  • Use them to find betting value early in the week before lines moves.

Now that the opening lines for college football Week 4 are out, let’s take a look  at some of the biggest differences between my projected point spreads and what the books actually posted.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts for all my plays as the college football market continually moves.


Week 4 Point Spread Projections

Current spread is as of Monday morning. TAN spread reflects our numbers from Sunday morning, before the books posted their lines.

Washington State @ USC

  • Action Network spread: USC -1
  • Posted spread: USC -3.5

This game will be played on a short week. USC will be looking for revenge from the 2017 game in Pullman that knocked the Trojans out of the College Football Playoff discussion.

Akron @ Iowa State

  • Action Network spread: Iowa State -25
  • Posted spread: Iowa State -18.5

The Action Network power ratings have been adjusted in the absence of Kyle Kempt, but the numbers still do not take into consideration this could be a sandwich game between Oklahoma and TCU for Iowa State.

Notre Dame @ Wake Forest

  • Action Network spread: Notre Dame -11
  • Posted spread: Notre Dame -8

These two teams are separated by 14 in the power ratings (before you factor in three points of home-field for Wake), but the Demon Deacons return quarterback Kendall Hinton from suspension and receiver Scotty Washington from injury.

Texas A&M @ Alabama

  • Action Network spread: Alabama -19
  • Posted spread: Alabama -25.5

Bookmakers have been high on Alabama early this season — and for good reason. The Tide are 3-0 against the spread.

You might be getting 6.5 points of value with Texas A&M, but I’m not in a hurry to step in front of this Alabama freight train.

Mississippi State @ Kentucky

  • Action Network spread: Mississippi State -13.5
  • Posted spread: Mississippi State -10

The Bulldogs rank in the top 15 in yards per play on both sides of the ball, but the Wildcats defense allows 305 yards per game while offensively rushing for 6.67 yards per carry.

Mississippi State’s players were all recruited by Dan Mullen, so Joe Moorhead has the task of keeping his players focused for Kentucky with Florida on deck.

Credit:

Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Fitzgerald

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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