College Football Week 6 Analytics Betting Preview: Success Rate, Havoc & More (Saturday, Oct. 7)
Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: An LSU Tigers flag.
We are officially 1-0 on the year in our Action Analytics betting previews.
The Maryland Terrapins took care of business against an overwhelmed Indiana Hoosiers team — and looked better than Ohio State doing it, I may add. However, now is not the time to reflect on past glories. On to Week 6!
This breakdown looks at three metrics that have proven to be relevant to covering the spread:
If you're interested in why these metrics have been chosen, check out this piece by Collin Wilson. To quote his findings:
“Data from the past five years indicates defensive Success Rate, Havoc and Finishing Drives are the biggest indicators in beating oddsmakers this college football season.”
Let’s dive in and see where we can find an edge in Week 6.
Havoc
What is Havoc?
Havoc is a college football term defined as a play where there’s an unexpected outcome. Pass breakups, forced fumbles and tackles for loss are just a few of the plays that cause chaos on any given Saturday. Collectively, these plays are used to build an identity for a team.
The calculation for Havoc is simply a cumulative number of tackles for loss, interceptions, fumbles and passes defensed divided by the number of plays on both sides of the ball.
Let's see where we can find some big Havoc discrepancies in Week 5:
Home Team Havoc Allowed vs. Away Team Havoc Rate
Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Liberty Offense vs. Sam Houston State Defense
- Army Offense vs. Boston College Defense
- Navy Offense vs. North Texas Defense
Away Team Havoc Allowed vs. Home Team Havoc Rate
Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Clemson Defense vs. Wake Forest Offense
- Miami Defense vs. Georgia Tech Offense
- Kansas State Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Success Rate
What is Success Rate?
Success Rate is an advanced metric in football that measures efficiency but with the important context of down and distance considered.
A play is defined as successful if:
- It gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down
- 70% of yards to gain on second down
- 100% of yards to gain on third or fourth down
To calculate Success Rate, simply divide the number of successful plays (as defined by down and distance above) by total plays.
This definition is taken from our article on Success Rate.
Home Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Away Team Defensive Success Rate
Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Jacksonville State Defense vs. Middle Tennessee State Offense
- Boise State Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
- Miami Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
Away Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Home Team Defensive Success Rate
Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Ohio Defense vs. Kent State Offense
- Toledo Offense vs. UMass Defense
- Liberty Defense vs. Sam Houston State Offense
Finishing Drives
What is Finishing Drives?
Finishing Drives is calculated as points per opportunity when the offense passes the opponent’s 40-yard line.
Defensively, this is how many Points per Opportunity a defense allows when the opposing offense crosses the 40-yard line.
Home Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Away Team Defensive Finishing Drives
Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Missouri Offense vs. LSU Defense
- Jacksonville State Defense vs. Middle Tennessee Offense
- Florida State Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
Away Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Home Team Defensive Finishing Drives
Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Texas State Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
- Kansas State Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
- Ohio Defense vs. Kent State Offense
College Football Week 6 Betting Takeaways
Mizzou has one of its biggest games of the season this weekend as it takes on another SEC Tigers team at home.
If the LSU defense of the early-mid 2000s could see how this current squad ranks in defensive metrics, I don't think they'd like what they'd see.
This is shaping up to be a no-defense game, and with two quarterbacks who have been balling — both Brady Cook and Jayden Daniels rank in the top 20 of PFF's passing grade — I definitely don't want to bet against points.
My compatriots on the Big Bets on Campus podcast have this as the underdog of the week, but I'm not all the way sold on Mizzou's offense being 100% real. I think LSU is going to make anyone other than Luther Burden III beat it.
With that said, I still think Mizzou will score, and LSU obviously will as well. Give me the over.
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