Wilson: My Projected Over/Under for Every Week 6 College Football Game

Wilson: My Projected Over/Under for Every Week 6 College Football Game article feature image
Credit:

Kevin Jairaj, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jalen Hurts

Living in Oklahoma is an animated time when the Sooners are playing.

This weekend, Texas Tech came into Norman. The Red Raiders were playing their back-up quarterback and their defense has been suspect this season.

After allowing two plays go for over 60 yards against Oklahoma, Texas Tech has now surrendered the most plays of 60-plus yards on the season.

The Oklahoma fans at my house party were on the Over 71 and claimed that “Vegas knew” when the two teams combined for just one touchdown in the fourth quarter. I told them, “It’s just mathematics.”

So how do totals get made? Oddsmakers assign total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.

Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection. Oddsmakers adjust totals based on game results, while our projections rely on a bit of mathematics.

Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on opening point spreads. Our Week 6 projections are here.

Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.

Projected College Football Totals, Week 6

Notes on Totals for Week 6

  • The early forecast calls for heavy rains from eastern Kansas throughout the state of Iowa. This may affect Northwestern-Nebraska, Oklahoma-Kansas, TCU-Iowa State, Baylor-Kansas State, Illinois-Minnesota and Troy-Missouri.
  • Winds are projected greater than 15 mph at Kansas State and Nebraska per SportsInsights.
  • Plenty of teams have seen an increase in plays per game. TCU has increased from 70.2 in 208 to 85 this season, while Pitt has moved from 66.1 last season to a current 79.5.
  • Teams with a dip in plays per game include East Carolina (65.4 from 82 last year) and Marshall (60.3 from 71.5).
  • Oklahoma, Ohio State and Georgia have a yards per play differential above +3.9.
  • Conversely UTEP, UTSA, Bowling Green and Miami Ohio are the bottom of yards per play differential at -3 or less.