Wilson: How a Havoc Mismatch Will Affect Betting in Auburn-Florida

Credit:

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Trask.

Oct 05, 2019, 07:11 AM EDT
  • Collin Wilson loves defenses that cause havoc, but offenses that avoid it are just as important.
  • Based on Football Outsiders' original measures, he quantifies the most and least disruptive defenses in the country.
  • Auburn and Florida are both strong havoc teams, so which team holds the edge?

We used this space in Week 5 to discuss the Havoc rate of both Nebraska and Ohio State. Both teams ranked in the top three entering the contest, so it was fair to expect plenty of turnovers. Sure enough, there were plenty of them …  but only for one team.

The missing piece of information from our analysis was Havoc allowed. Nebraska was the top team in the nation in passes defensed, but one of the worst in turnovers lost. Havoc allowed for the offense is as equally important as Havoc rate for the defense. Our Week 6 rankings now include Havoc allowed for each teams offense.

Havoc rate is defined as a tackle for loss, forced fumble or pass defended. It can take a defense from good to great. Havoc allowed is interceptions, tackles for loss and fumbles offensively. Investing money in offenses that protect the ball is vital to a bettor.

With just one fumble and no interceptions, the nation’s best offense in the havoc department is Iowa. Duke, Iowa State, Temple and Georgia are the best offensive line combinations in the country in tackle for loss prevention.

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