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The Colorado Buffaloes take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Baylor is favored by -10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -380. The total is set at 55.5 points.
Here’s my Colorado vs. Baylor prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026.
Colorado vs Baylor Prediction
- Colorado vs. Baylor Pick: Under 55.5 or Better
My Baylor vs. Colorado best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. For more Week 4 college football picks and analysis, download the Action Network app today.
Colorado vs Baylor Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -108 | 55.5 -108o / -112u | +300 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -112 | 55.5 -108o / -112u | -380 |
- Colorado vs Baylor point spread: Baylor -10 (-112), Colorado +10 (-108)
- Colorado vs Baylor over/under: 55.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Colorado vs Baylor moneyline: Colorado +300, Baylor -380
Colorado vs Baylor College Football Preview
Colorado Buffaloes Betting Preview
A hot 2-0 start began to alter the projection of a Colorado Buffaloes team that, once again, had been written off following a 3-9 season.
The Buffaloes stifled Georgia Tech, 14-13, and then ran roughshod on Weber State. But a now-infamous hot mic clip of Colorado calling Northwestern’s Martin Stadium a library came back to haunt the Buffs thanks to a 41-7 blowout loss.
So, we’re back to tempered expectations for a team that has two wins — one over a team without an FBS win (Georgia Tech) and one over an overmatched FCS foe.
Quarterback Julian Lewis has been incredibly ineffective against FBS teams, combining to complete just 33-of-56 passes (58.9%) with two touchdowns and two interceptions (5.2 yards per attempt). Against Weber, Lewis took three sacks.
It doesn’t help that top receiver Danny Scudero has battled injury this season. The San Jose State transfer was limited to just 13 snaps in Week 1, then sat Week 3 and is out Week 4.
Starting center Demetrius Hunter also exited in Week 1, missed Weeks 2 and 3, and is doubtful for Week 4. Hunter is one of two senior starting offensive linemen and the lone multi-year starter.
Unlike in years past, Colorado is solid on the offensive line — even in that 41-7 blowout, it managed to generate over 3.4 yards per rush — but its receiving corps has failed Lewis.
The sophomore hasn’t been fantastic in his own right, but his receivers have already dropped six passes, accounting for 10.7% of Lewis’ attempts.
The defense suffered from poor second-level play against Northwestern, which gained 4+ yards on 21% of its rushes.
This can partially be chalked up to a career-long dominance Chip Kelly has held over Colorado (over 40 points per game scored on the Buffs as a coach), but this Northwestern offense looked as potent as Kelly’s best Oregon offenses at times.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
With Dave Aranda firmly on the hot seat, we don’t really have much of an idea of what the 2026 Baylor Bears look like yet.
In their season debut, it was pretty bad, with a heartbreaking 17-16 loss to Auburn in a game nobody came away looking like a winner. Since then, Baylor rolled Prairie View A&M (44-3) and Louisiana Tech (36-19), both overmatched opponents.
Although Oklahoma got all of the attention for the "Worst Performance Against a G6 Opponent" award (a 14-6 slugfest with New Mexico), Baylor’s bad performance against Louisiana Tech was swept under the rug.
Tech managed to gain 61% of available yards (equal to Baylor), posted an equivalent 40% Success Rate, and ripped off the same number of explosive plays (7).
It’s not quite a misleading final — Baylor’s postgame win expectancy, per SP+, was 99.9% and the game was never really in doubt — but there are some concerns to be had.
QB DJ Lagway missed each of the last two games with an ankle injury but is reportedly good to go for this game. Though against lesser competition, the offense appeared to play more on time under junior Nate Bennett. Lagway is certainly the more dangerous player, though.
Should Baylor’s defense clean up some errant explosive runs and get off the field more frequently on third downs, this could be a quality Big 12 team – granted, we haven’t seen it yet against conference opponents.
Colorado vs Baylor Pick, Betting Analysis
This line has been one of the most aggressive movers this week since the open. Baylor opened a -6.5 favorite, but that’s been bet up to -10. That’s partly due to the confirmation that Lagway is more likely to play than not, but there’s been sharp market adjustment here – it’s not all injury news-driven.
The total was also bet up from 52.5 at open to 55.5.
Despite the lopsided nature of the move up, there’s value betting this number back down.
Baylor is one of the more sound tackling teams in the country (No. 2 in PFF grade only behind Georgia) and the defense has been rock-solid.
Juju Lewis doesn’t really pose a greater threat than Byrum Brown, who Baylor picked off three times in that season debut. Scudero is likely back in the lineup, which helps quite a bit, but he may continue to be limited, and Colorado’s offense wasn’t transformatively better with him on the field.
I’m undeterred by two of the fastest-paced offenses in the country because, at some point, fast pace turns into inefficiency. Expect Colorado to try to slow the tempo down.
The other aspect here is working Lagway back into the Baylor offense. For the last two games, it’s operated on all cylinders under Bennett, but Lagway stalled this unit out a couple of times against Auburn.
The strength of Colorado comes in its second level on defense.
Pick: Under 55.5 or Better
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