Colorado vs Washington Odds & Predictions: Offenses To Light It Up
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Colorado vs Washington Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+30.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +1600 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-30.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
For the third straight game, Colorado will face a ranked conference opponent.
The first two have not gone well, as it lost to Oregon, 49-10, and to USC, 55-17. Last week's loss dropped Colorado to 1-9 and 1-6 in the Pac-12.
This week, it will get an extra day of rest and preparation following last Friday's tilt. Next on the docket is a trip to Seattle to battle the Washington Huskies.
Washington is flying high after upsetting arch-rival Oregon, 37-34. The Huskies not only ended the Ducks' CFP hopes, but it also kept alive their (slim) hopes to reach the Pac-12 Championship. The win moved Washington to 8-2, 5-2 in the Pac-12 and in a tie for fourth place in the conference.
Since Colorado joined the Pac-12, Washington has won seven of the nine meetings. However, the Buffaloes have won the last two meetings. The under has hit in each of the last five meetings in this series.
Will that trend continue on Saturday night?
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado's quarterback situation has been a revolving door all season. Brendon Lewis began the year as the starter but was replaced by JT Shrout. Now, Lewis is in the transfer portal.
Shrout was then replaced by freshman Owen McCown, but he was injured against Cal. McCown still has not been cleared, so it will be Shrout once again.
Shrout's numbers are not pretty. He's completing just 45% of his passes while averaging 5.9 yards per attempt and throwing six touchdown passes to seven interceptions. He ranks 123rd nationally in FBS in QBR, and Colorado is 109th in Passing Success Rate.
Colorado has been more successful when it runs the ball, as it ranks 78th in Rushing Success Rate. However, the run game is often not an option because of the deficits usually faces.
When it does run, Colorado has a few solid options.
Deion Smith leads the team with 381 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 5.1 yards per carry. He missed last week's game but is expected back on Saturday. In his absence, Alex Fontenot ran for 108 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries last week at USC. He's over 200 yards on the season, along with freshman Anthony Hankerson.
Colorado lost leading receiver Jordyn Tyson for the season with a leg injury. He was a big-play threat with four touchdowns and a 21.4 yards-per-catch average.
The next men up are Daniel Arias and Montana Lemonious-Craig. Arias averages 16.3 yards per catch and has 309 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Lemonious-Craig has 20 receptions for 264 yards and two scores.
Defensively, Colorado ranks at the bottom of the FBS in most categories. It ranks 131st in scoring defense and 129th in yards per play allowed. Colorado has allowed 40 points in eight games and at least 38 points in nine games this season.
The run defense has been the main culprit, as Colorado allows 227.8 yards rushing per game and ranks 130th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
However, it also ranks 127th in Passing Success Rate Allowed. The Buffaloes sit 130th in Havoc and 131st in Finishing Drives.
Colorado has just nine sacks as a team in 10 games. It will be in for another long day against the Huskies.
Washington Huskies
Head coach Kalen DeBoer went to the transfer portal and targeted former Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to operate his offense. The pairing has been a perfect match in Seattle this season.
Penix leads the FBS with 3,640 passing yards and is tied for 10th with 25 touchdown passes. He also ranks 12th in QBR.
As a whole, Washington ranks eighth in total offense and 13th in scoring offense.
The Huskies don't run the ball often — just 41% of the time — but they're successful when they do. They rank 19th in Rushing Success Rate.
Virginia transfer Wayne Taulapapa leads the team with 546 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 5.4 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cameron Davis has 408 yards on 4.6 yards per carry and a team-leading 11 touchdowns.
Having the nation's top passing attack would not be possible without a dangerous group of receivers. Washington has gotten nine 100-yard performances from four different receivers.
Rome Odunze leads the way with five 100-yard games, which have all come in his past seven games. He leads the team with 63 receptions and 914 yards and is tied with six touchdowns.
Jalen McMillan has 57 receptions for 792 yards and six touchdowns, while Ja'Lynn Polk has caught 31 passes for 528 yards and five scores.
All three rank in the top 20 in the Pac-12 in receiving yards. Penix needs 360 yards to reach 4,000 yards, while Odunze needs just 86 yards to reach 1,000 yards on the year. Both of those milestones are attainable against Colorado this week.
Washington has been one of the stingiest defenses in the country in recent years, but it has taken a step back in most areas this season. It ranks 110th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 96th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 108th in Line Yards, 124th in Havoc and 90th in Finishing Drives.
The Huskies also sit 77th in scoring defense at 27.6 points per game allowed and have given up 28 points in five of their eight games against Power Five opponents.
One thing Washington does do well is putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. It ranks 29th in pass rush grade and is tied 28th in sacks. Edge rusher Bralen Trice leads the team with seven sacks, while fellow edge Jeremiah Martin is just behind him with 6.5.
Colorado vs Washington Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado and Washington match up statistically:
Colorado Offense vs. Washington Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 78 | 110 | |
| Line Yards | 94 | 108 | |
| Pass Success | 109 | 96 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 58 | 29 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 110 | 90 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Washington Offense vs. Colorado Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 19 | 130 | |
| Line Yards | 64 | 95 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 127 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 8 | 126 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 130 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 131 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 131 | 98 |
| PFF Coverage | 131 | 112 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 45 | 53 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (56) | 25.2 (41) |
| Rush Rate | 51.5% (78) | 41.0% (128) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Colorado vs Washington Betting Pick
Washington has a high-powered offense, but it has been even more dangerous at home. It's averaging 41.5 points per game in Seattle this season and has scored at least 38 points in five of those six games.
Colorado has the worst defense Washington has faced this season, so the Huskies should put another big number on the board.
Colorado will not put much pressure on Penix, and the wind is expected to be much calmer (3 MPH) than Washington's last home game against Oregon State when it scored just 24 points.
Colorado won't remind anyone of 2019 LSU on offense, but it has managed to score against the worst defenses on its schedule. It scored 20 against Arizona, 34 against Arizona State and 17 against USC last week. If Washington does most of the scoring, 17-20 points may be all Colorado needs to contribute to the over.
The over has hit in each of Colorado's last five road games and seven of Washington's last eight home games. I expect each of those trends to continue on Saturday night.
Pick: Over 64.5 |
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