East Carolina vs Rice Prediction, Pick: Offenses Should Thrive in Houston
Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: JT Daniels
East Carolina vs Rice Odds
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | +135 |
| Rice Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -160 |
East Carolina travels to Houston to take on its American Athletic Conference foe, Rice.
For East Carolina, it's the first game in conference play, while Rice has already dropped one conference game. Both need a win to have any chance to contend for the top spot in the AAC.
East Carolina comes into this game following a 44-0 win over Gardner-Webb at home. This was the Pirates' first win of the year and broke their three-game losing streak, which included losses to Appalachian State, Marshall and Michigan. They're 2-2 against the spread and have gone 2-2 toward the total.
Rice comes into this game with a 2-2 record and is coming off of a 42-29 loss at South Florida. Prior to said loss, the Owls had been riding a two-game winning streak. The Owls are 3-1 against the spread and have gone over in three games.
It will be a hot, windy day in Houston at kickoff. There will be winds ranging from 5.6 to 10.4 mph that could have an impact on passing and special teams.
Read on for our East Carolina vs Rice Prediction, Pick.
In his fifth season as head coach, Mike Houston has East Carolina off to a slow start. The Pirates are averaging 22.0 points per game and 4.3 yards per play. They have a 39% Success Rate and average 2.34 points per opportunity. They average 27.2 seconds per play.
East Carolina is averaging 31.3 pass attempts per game and 150.0 passing yards. Alex Flinn and Mason Garcia have split the work as primary QB for the Pirates. The two QBs have completed 53.7% of their passes for 4.87 yards per attempt.
As a team, they have a 37% Passing Success Rate and average 1.25 passes over 20 yards per game.
The Pirates have averaged 132.5 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per rush. Rahjai Harris leads the team with 171 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
As a team, the Pirates have a 42% Success Rate on the ground and average five rushes over 10 yards per game. The offensive line has generated just 2.88 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 16% Stuff Rate.
The defense has been slightly more successful than the offense. Opponents have averaged 26.0 points per game and 5.2 yards per play. They allow a 36% Success Rate, 2.32 points per opportunity and generate Havoc on 20% of plays.
In his five prior season as the head coach, Mike Bloomgren hasn't ever had a season with at least six wins. He has the team off to a strong 2-2 start in 2023, though.
The Owls are averaging 35.2 points per game and 6.2 yards per play. They have a 46% Success Rate and have averaged 5.05 points per opportunity. They play at a methodical pace of 29.3 seconds per play.
Rice averages 34.0 pass attempts per game and 323.8 passing yards. Transfer QB JT Daniels seems to have finally found a home. He's completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.9 yards per attempt. He's thrown 11 touchdowns and three interceptions.
As a team, the Owls have a 53% Success Rate and have averaged 5.0 passes over 20 yards per game.
The Owls average 82.0 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per attempt. Juma Otoviano and Dean Connors lead the team with 30 and 29 rush attempts, respectively.
As a team, the Owls have a 40% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line generates 2.33 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 24% Stuff Rate.
Rice is allowing 31.8 points per game and 6.1 yards per play. The Owls allow a 42% Success Rate, 3.69 points per opportunity and generate Havoc on 21% of plays.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how East Carolina and Rice match up statistically:
East Carolina Offense vs. Rice Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 83 | 106 | |
| Line Yards | 76 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 107 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 91 | 45 | |
| Finishing Drives | 130 | 76 | |
| Quality Drives | 119 | 109 |
Rice Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 127 | 12 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 103 | |
| Havoc | 72 | 52 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 14 | |
| Quality Drives | 48 | 72 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 33 | 90 |
| PFF Coverage | 50 | 102 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 111 | 117 |
| Middle 8 | 73 | 99 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.2 (73) | 29.3 (105) |
| Rush Rate | 51.9% (80) | 48.3% (102) |
East Carolina vs Rice
Betting Pick & Prediction
Sharps have been moving on East Carolina as a underdog in this matchup. While only 45% of bets have been on the Pirates, approximately 82% of the money is on them.
As of this writing, 69% of the bets and 84% of the money have backed the over, but the line has moved down since open.
My preferred play is to take the over at 46.5.
Both teams have shown the ability to put up 40+ point games in spite of their slow pace of play. Rice should be able to consistently find success passing. And with their struggles running the ball, the Owls will almost assuredly lean on Daniels to keep the offense moving.
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