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The Florida Gators take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, Missouri, on Saturday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Florida is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -210. Missouri, meanwhile, enters as a +4.5 underdog and is +172 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 56.5 total points.
Here’s my Florida vs. Missouri prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3.
Florida vs Missouri Prediction
- Florida vs. Missouri Picks: Florida -4.5 (-115)
My Missouri vs. Florida best bet is on the Gators to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Florida vs Missouri Spread, Totals, Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 57.5 -112o / -108u | -218 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 57.5 -112o / -108u | +180 |
- Florida vs Missouri Spread: Florida -5.5 (-110), Missouri +5.5 (-110)
- Florida vs Missouri Totals: 57.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Florida vs Missouri Moneyline: Florida -218, Missouri +180
Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers CFB Preview
Florida Gators Betting Preview: The Sumrall Effect
I love first-year Florida head coach John Sumrall, who instantly turned the Gators into a national title contender in his first season in Gainesville.
After leading Tulane to the College Football Playoff in 2025, the Gators came knocking with a big contract offer for Sumrall, given how poorly Florida had been for several years under Billy Napier.
Florida has been spectacular in just four games under Sumrall. Its offense is averaging over 53 points per game despite facing several difficult SEC foes, including Auburn and Ole Miss.
Gators quarterback Aaron Philo has thrown for 917 yards over Florida’s first four contests and ranks inside the top 15 in the country with an 85.4 QBR.
Florida boasts a loaded offensive unit, primarily led by tailback Jadan Baugh, who has quickly established himself as not just one of the best running backs in college football, but as one of the premier overall players in the nation.
Baugh has rushed for an incredible 600 yards over the Gators’ first four games and has already found the end zone 11 times, ranking second and first nationally, respectively.
Florida’s receiving corps has been quite impressive as well. Sophomore wideouts Vernell Brown III and Dallas Wilson have both racked up at least 235 receiving yards on the season.
In addition to Sumrall’s Gators ranking second in college football with 53.5 points per game, Florida’s defense is allowing less than 23 points per game heading into Week 5’s SEC showdown.
Florida's stop unit has also been under a new regime in 2026, with former Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White installing multi-faceted three-man and four-man fronts that largely focus on stopping the run, generating pressure, and minimizing explosive plays.
While the Gators travel to Austin to play top-ranked Texas in two weeks, Florida will by no stretch of the imagination overlook Saturday’s difficult road test against a ranked conference foe in Missouri.
Missouri Tigers Betting Preview: Former Rebels Lead the Way
While Missouri is coming off its first loss of the 2026 season after falling to Mississippi State by a touchdown, the Tigers will be very motivated heading back home to Columbia for a tough Week 5 matchup against the undefeated Gators.
Missouri signed head coach Eli Drinkwitz to a six-year contract worth upwards of $10 million annually after the former SEC Coach of the Year led his Tigers to 10 wins in 2023 and again in 2024.
Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons has been phenomenal over his first four games as Missouri’s QB1 after riding the bench at Ole Miss for two seasons.
Simmons has thrown for an impressive 947 yards in the air and 11 touchdowns without throwing a single interception over his first four games in Columbia.
Unfortunately for Mizzou’s offense, star tailback Ahmad Hardy remains with no timetable for return after ranking second in all of college football with 1,649 rushing yards in 2025.
Despite Hardy’s absence, the Tigers have still been pretty effective in their rushing attack, with backups Jamal Roberts and Xai’Shaun Edwards carrying the load for Mizzou’s backfield in impressive fashion.
Missouri boasts an elite receiving corps as well, led by senior wide receiver Cayden Lee, who has already racked up 412 receiving yards to rank ninth in the country.
As two former Rebels, Lee and Simmons have quickly re-established their chemistry and have formed a very dangerous connection that has given opposing defenses nightmares.
Drinkwitz continues to run a versatile power spread offense using heavy tight end formations to balance short-yardage pounding with perimeter passing, which has led to an uptempo Tiger offense scoring over 35 points per game thus far.
Missouri’s defensive unit has been quite impressive as well, giving up less than 21 points per game thus far. Senior linebacker Robert Woodyard Jr. has been the anchor for the Tigers' elite front seven.
If the Tigers are to pull off the upset in Saturday’s SEC clash, it will undoubtedly require a massive effort from this Mizzou defense.
Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers Pick, Betting Analysis
We're in for a great matchup on Saturday afternoon between two SEC foes off to promising starts in their respective 2026 campaigns.
While I have been very impressed by Missouri’s level of play over its first four games, the Tigers must face an uptempo Gators offense that ranks second nationally in points scored this season.
Though I definitely expect the Tigers to hang around early, I love Florida in this spot and feel confident backing Sumrall’s Gators to cover the 4.5-point spread.
Picks: Florida -4.5 (-115)
Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers Betting Trends
